articles by Tim Kelley
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How to position your investments for Brexit
Tim Kelley
June 22, 2016
With Britons about to cast their vote on leaving the European Union, many investors are asking how they should position themselves in the event the ‘yes’ vote gets up. As fund managers, it’s a question we’ve been forced to address head on. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets.
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POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets.TaggedBrexit
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Better Forecasting
Tim Kelley
June 15, 2016
I recently found time to read “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip Tetlock. Tetlock has previously published work on the reliability of expert forecasts and found that, on average their reliability is poor, and that predictions made by the highest-profile pundits tend to be worse than average. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
Taggedphilip tetlock- 1 Comments
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POSTED IN Investing Education.Taggedphilip tetlock
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Is Flight Centre a Bargain?
Tim Kelley
May 27, 2016
Following a recent trading update, Flight Centre (ASX:FLT) shares are trading at around their lowest levels for some years. In its announcement to the market FLT attributed the weak trading to a wide assortment of issues including: the Federal election; Brexit; airfare price wars; investment in key improvement strategies and the Zika virus. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Some Small Cap Names to Consider
Tim Kelley
May 17, 2016
Regular readers will know that at Montgomery Investment Management we try to take advantage of technology to improve our investment process. One of the ways we do that is with machine learning algorithms. In simple terms, we gather large amounts of historical data and using that data we “teach” a computer system to distinguish between good investments and weaker ones by finding relationships between the historical data and subsequent investment performance. Our experience with these systems leads us to think that they have a useful role to play in sorting the wheat from the chaff. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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On the Virtues of Return on Equity
Tim Kelley
May 3, 2016
Regular readers will know that we are keen observers of business quality, and feel that one of the more helpful markers of business quality is the ability of a business to sustain a high return on equity (ROE). Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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The key to value investing (27/04/2016)
Tim Kelley
April 27, 2016
by Tim Kelley Posted in Video Insights.
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A unique example of excellent business economics
Tim Kelley
April 11, 2016
One very high quality business listed on the ASX is Invocare Limited (ASX:IVC). IVC is the clear market leader in funeral homes, cemeteries and crematoria in Australia, and has a strong market position in New Zealand and Singapore. The idea of a business whose revenue is tied to the death rate may not be everyone’s cup of tea, but from an economic standpoint, it is one you have to admire. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.
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The Evolving ASX
Tim Kelley
March 31, 2016
The chart below splits the market capitalisation of the ASX100 Index into GICS sectors, and shows the index as it was ten years ago (on the left) and the index as it is today (on the right). Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights.
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The Numbers Behind the Numbers
Tim Kelley
March 14, 2016
In this recent post I discussed some of the statistics behind investment outperformance, and made the observation that in recent years, the stocks selected for inclusion in The Montgomery Fund have outperformed the market only 54 per cent of the time. While we get more right than we get wrong, the actual percentage of stock picks we get right is perhaps smaller than most people might think, and this is likely to hold true for most, if not all, investment managers. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Data vs Anecdote
Tim Kelley
March 2, 2016
In my view, the role of chance in equity investing is one of the most important concepts a successful investor needs to grasp. It’s also one that pretty much everyone seems to forget – sometimes even seasoned investment professionals. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
