Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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When share prices start getting ahead of even the most optimistic forecasts then it’s probably time to let them go. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
Fund manager Roger Montgomery has calculated that Ten Network has virtually trod water for more than 10 years with an average compound growth of just 4.8 per cent and profitability levels that have not been sufficient to cover dividends. Read article.
Roger Montgomery shares his amazingly simple steps investors should follow to pick the best value stocks and those that make his A1 Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR) at the Trading & Investing Expo. Listen to Podcast.
Last week on the Sky Business Channel Peter Switzer asked me for one ‘blue chip’ stock that I rate as ‘A1’.
So I asked… what is a blue chip? Peter described such businesses as having a very good reputation and great brand name, pay a good dividend and have stood the test of time. Such businesses, Peter said, also tend to go up with the market.
Whilst I couldn’t name an A1 blue chip, I can name plenty that fall in my C4 and C5 categories.
Last night I revealed 18 ASX-listed businesses that some investors consider ‘blue chips’, yet don’t make my A1 grade. Westfield, Transurban, Asciano, Lend Lease, Ten Network and Virgin Blue are just a few.
Switzer TV with Peter Switzer was broadcast on 22 July 2010 on the Sky Business Channel. Visit www.rogermontgomery.com to secure your First Edition hard back of Value.able, my step-by-step guide to valuing the best companies and buying them for less than they are worth.
This video is provided by Switzer.com.au, an online portal for retail investors and small business owners. Switzer also provides Financial Planning and Business Coaching services.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 23 July 2010.
Roger Montgomery’s A1 label for extraordinary businesses is becoming a common language among investors, but just how does he determine if a company is an A1 or B3 or C5? In this interview with Peter Switzer on Switzer TV Roger explains the two aspects to his rating system. He also lists 18 ASX-listed businesses that have been around for a long time, pay consistent dividends and are regarded as core portfolio inclusions — blue chips — yet don’t make his A1 grade. Westfield, Transurban, Asciano, Lend Lease, Ten Network and Virgin Blue are just a few. Watch the interview.
Santos, Lynas, Fortescue and Ten are all expensive, and according to Roger Montgomery, are also mediocre businesses — low return on equity, poor economic performance and dilutive capital raisings. But there are two small cap stocks that are in Roger’s basket of A1 businesses. Watch Roger’s appearance on Market Moves to find out what they are. Watch the interview.
Australia’s four big banks have a wonderful competitive advantage, but which is the best economic performer? And with a 2011 intrinsic value of $54.51, is it cheap right now? In this appearance on Market Moves Roger Montgomery also questions if the stock market really is the result of cause and effect. Watch the interview.
Bipolar markets appear to be the anticipated outcome for the next few years. Investors seem to be in the middle of a tug-o-war between inflation and deflation, recovery or double dip recession.
Pimco’s Bill Gross says we have entered the era of the “new normal’ – expect low aggregate returns. Jeremy Grantham at GMO says that attributing the chance of recovery at 25% is “generous” and the US will be lucky to achieve 2% economic growth over the next seven years. And David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff says deflation is more likely than inflation, describing the stock market as meat grinder – “No return for a decade and yet plenty of sleepless nights on this roller-coaster ride.” Keep in mind David is a perennial bear. I remember during my days as trader being told; listen to the bears but don’t sell until they turn bullish!
Over at the bullish camp PuruSaxena says “the ongoing range trading should conclude with a bullish resolution” and cites Intel’s best quarter ever and JP Morgan’s analyst estimates-beating performance as justification.
At Montgomery Inc. ‘we’ don’t claim to know how the world’s debt issues will be resolved. What we do know is that you cannot solve them with more borrowing.
In Australia many ‘analysts’ are pointing to the fact that the recent rally has not been accompanied by much volume. Indeed, one of my friends who is a broker said they can “hear pins drop” in their office. But before you rush out and sell in anticipation of some imminent correction (I am not forecasting anything), have a look at the volume that accompanied the beginning of the bounce from the March 2009 lows. They were relatively light too. Perhaps that means the whole thing will indeed end in a massive correction that will see even lower lows! (I am not forecasting anything).
Stock market investing however need not be so mysterious and confusing. Instead of focusing on stocks, focus on businesses. Instead of focusing on prices, focus on values. When bargains are available it is obvious. When the banks were at their lows, there was no justification and large discounts to intrinsic value were evident for three of the big four. Their prices were following the pattern of their global peers that were each losing billions and being bailed out or nationalised. While their prices were on their knees, their values were being driven by the fact they were reporting multibillion-dollar profits. Focus on the business – don’t take your cues from share prices.
More importantly, when bargains are available you are writing to me with requests to value high quality companies. “What is the value of CBA Roger?” “What do you think of CSL and Cochlear at these prices?” “They’re pricing QBE like it is going out of business, that’s just crazy.”
Today, value is not so obvious and once again that is reflected in the general quality of the companies that you are asking me to value for you. While you have requested a few decent businesses, there have been a few raised eyebrows at Montgomery Global.
With those thoughts in mind, I offer another Value.able update from Montgomery Inc, along with the relevant MQRs – “Montgomery Quality Ratings”. At some point I will publish, somehow, the entire universe with the A1, A2, A3, to C3 C4 and C5 MQRs.
Don’t forget that the valuations you are seeing here are based on inputs that include analyst estimates. As some of you have indicated, analysts are notoriously bullish and particularly at the beginning of a reporting period tend to have estimates for earnings that need subsequent downward revision. I will discuss this and my observations and insights in a future post.
For now, know that the studies conducted by McKinsey, for example, into the persistent excess bullishness among analysts, aggregate and average the data which can produce a result that does not reflect any particular year. Stick your head in an oven and your feet in the freezer and your ‘average’ temperature will be about right, but of course you won’t be feeling so good!
The point I should make however is that my valuations for CBA, WBC, NAB, ANZ, QTM, CAB, HZL, FLT, SOL, MMS, CPU, AXA, BLD, CFU, DYE, DMX, ISF, VLA, QHL and CLQ (especially the 2011 estimates) will be revised over time. They will change. And having just been calculated they may also have changed from any previously published valuation and supersede them.
WARNING: Not recommendations or advice. Didactic exercise only. Seek personal professional advice before doing anything!
* Quality Score shown for last full year results. May change dramatically. May have been one good year – a flash in the pan. There is more to know. If for example, a company makes a debt-funded acquisition, its quality score could change.
++ 2009 Valuation. No forecast information available
+++ No forecast information available
^ US Company listed in the US
Your copy of Value.able will be delivered soon. I’m looking forward to comparing you’re valuations here on my blog.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 22 July 2010.
The real tragedy about the collapse in Nufarm’s share price is that you probably hold a lot of companies like it. You just don’t know it yet. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
Peter Switzer invited me to join him on the Sky Business Channel last Thursday evening. We discussed the market and my way of thinking about businesses. Then he asked me to reveal which A1 companies are the best value right now. Here is the interview.
