Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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Roger Montgomery tells viewers of Your Money Your call why he thinks funds management businesses, in particular Platinum Asset Management Limited, are extraordinary businesses. CSL is another ASX-listed business that achieves Roger Montgomery’s stringent A1/A2 Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR). What is the moral of Roger’s story? Buy the best businesses when their shares prices are trading at a discount to your Value.able intrinsic value and over time you can’t help but do well. Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery often reveals his Value.able intrinsic valuations for listed businesses in one, two and three years time. But he also cautions investors to be wary of analysts forecasts, which are typically optimistic, particularly at the beginning of each year. So how does Roger incorporate forecasts from leading investment analysts into his Value.able intrinsic valuations? Watch this interview to also discover Roger’s Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR) and Value.able intrinsic valuation for Wridgways. Is Wridgways an A1 MQR business? Watch the interview.
In this appearance on Market Moves Roger Montgomery tells stock market investors that BHP is a superior business to RIO, AGL is an average business and expensive, and the intrinsic values of both Worley Parsons (WOR) and Flexigroup (FXL) are rising over the next few years. But it is a recently listed mining services business that has money on its books, little or no debt and rising ROE that Roger is really excited about. Watch this interview to discover Roger Montgomery’s most recent A1 find. Watch the interview.
Unlike most stock market investors, Roger Montgomery doesn’t pay attention to short-term moves in the market. Instead, he focuses on individual businesses and what they are worth. In this appearance on Market Moves Roger shares his insights on the Woolworths (WOW) share buy-back and also reveals his Value.able intrinsic valuations for Fortescue (FMG), Toll Holdings (TOL) and Virgin Blue (VBA). Watch the interview.
Monadelphous and Fleetwood are both A1 businesses. When it comes to the banks, Roger Montgomery would choose CBA every time. Roger rates these businesses so highly that when it comes to analysing other businesses in the mining services, construction services and banking sectors, these businesses set the benchmark. In this appearance on Your Money Your Call Roger also shares his insights and 2012 Value.able intrinsic valuations for Santos, Woolworths, Primary Healthcare, Nexus Eneregy and Westpac. Watch the interview.
Peter Switzer asked Roger Montgomery to list his top 10 stocks that are the best value on the ASX. Whilst not all of them are A1s, they do share a common characteristic: the chance of these businesses making a surprise announcement about a capital raising, inability to repay debt or succumbing to liquidation or bankruptcy is very low. In fact, if any of these events were to occur, Roger Montgomery would be shocked. So what are Roger’s top 10 value stocks? Watch the interview.
Telstra is one of the most analysed stocks on the ASX. So what’s it really worth? Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
The second full week of reporting season has just been and gone and saw another 80-100 companies report their financial results. More than 200 have reported and yes I am working feverishly to keep up and cover them all. I am happy to report that I’m ready for another week.
So far the results have been mixed. Information Technology, Banking and Mining/Oil & Gas Services sectors have stood-out, receiving high Montgomery Quality Ratings. The remainder have been distributed somewhat randomly amongst the other sectors.
And having analysed all of them so far, I can reveal that only 11 (5.5%) of the 200 have achieved my coveted A1 status (an additional six on top of the five from my previous post). These businesses have all passed my rigorous stress tests and come up trumps.
You may be surprised that after another full week and 80-100 individual results, only six additional companies have made it. But my A1 rating system has been specifically formulated to yield only the best and it is performing its function very well.
Of the six companies, three held onto their A1 status. These are Carsales.com.au (CRZ), Forge Group (FGE) and Monadelphous (MND) which have been joined by 3 new entrants in DWS Advanced Business Solutions (DWS), Finbar Group Limited (FRI) and SMS Management and technology (SMX).
Unfortunately, on a net basis we lost one A1 this year with four other businesses experiencing ratings declines from A1. These businesses include CSL limited (CSL), Consolidated Media Holdings (CMJ), Integrated Research (IRI) and McMillan Shakespeare (MMS). While CSL and CMJ have both declined to A2 status – nothing to be sneezed at, IRI and MMS have had larger rating declines.
Most notably, MMS has declined materially in terms of quality as I predicted it might after its acquisition, and it is now a ‘B3’. The mostly debt-funded acquisition of Interleasing (Australia) is the cause of this fall which I will cover in a separate post.
There are also another 20 A2 businesses that have passed my stress tests and rate in the top 15 per cent of the market in terms of overall quality.
Don’t forget to combine these lists with the A1 and A2 businesses I highlighted last week to continue identifying the best of the rest and stay tuned, I will post my intrinsic valuations for all 11 A1 businesses soon.
Finally, an update on my Telstra valuation. Last week I said that my valuation following the annual result was $2.50. I have updated my numbers and now get $2.30.
I sincerely hope that my Telstra comments have served your research well and that you have not been caught by all of the “it’s high yield and therefore a cheap stock” talk.
While others may have been tempted to buy shares for ‘yield’, you can use Value.able to first discover the intrinsic value. To save you a little time, Telstra’s valuation has declined since it listed. Even in the past year intrinsic value has fallen from $3.00 to $2.30! And the share price has fallen from $3.55 to the current $2.77.
In reality this is a widely reported and closely tracked company and its weighting in the index ensures a level of support from the large, conventional, index-based and tracking-error-focused funds. Indeed this is one of the reasons it has taken so long for Benjamin Graham’s weighing machine to catch up to the valuation – ten years! An improvement in the clarity for Telstra (forgetting whether its profitable for the business) could be enough to result in substantial price rises. Of course as a disciplined value investor focused on only the highest quality business, I cannot let that speculation tempt me.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 24 August 2010.
Finding an undervalued stock is a wonderful thing. Finding a group of them is something else. In this edition Roger identifies a cluster of undervalued companies and adds one to his benchmark-beating portfolio. Read article.
Alan Kohler’s Eureka Report is giving away a copy a week for four weeks of Roger Montgomery’s first book, Value.able. Alan writes… you’ve read his extraordinary insights and followed his Value Line portfolio – now you can value stocks the way Roger Montgomery does, and buy them for less than they’re worth. So how do you win a copy of Value.able? You’ll have to submit a letter to the letters section of Eureka Report, and the author of the best letter, as selected by Alan, will win. Read more at Eureka Report.
