Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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AMP has launched a cash and scrip bid for Axa Asia Pacific that values the company at the same $13.3 billion as the accepted NAB bid that was blocked by the regulators. Roger Montgomery told Phillip Lasker on ABC Lateline Business that the intrinsic value of “[Axa is] significantly lower than the current price being offered by AMP. Read the transcript.
Roger Montgomery explains to Peter Switzer on the Sky Business Channel that a share portfolio of his A1 businesses, when bought at discounts to intrinsic value, will significantly outperform the market. Whilst Reckon, Thorn Group, GUD Holdings, Fleetwood, Wotif, Monadelphous are expensive A1 businesses, Roger tells investors that his Value.able intrinsic values of these businesses are expected to rise between 6% and 15% per year over the next three years. Roger also reveals his cheapest A1 businesses. Tune into Switzer TV in February 2011 when Peter Switzer reveals the performance of Roger Montgomery’s ‘A1’ portfolio. Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery describes his list of A1 businesses as a ‘wishlist’. Your goal as an investor is to find great businesses and buy them when their share prices are trading at big discounts to intrinsic value. Roger’s list of A1 businesses include fund manager Platinum Asset Management, manufacturer Cochlear, vitamin manufacturer Blackmores, online list Realestate.com.au, telecommunications business M2, mining services business Mineral Resources, IT services provider DWS, Centrebet, bull bar manufacturere ARB Corporation and one of Roger’s favourites, Oroton Group. Some of Roger’s A1s are cheap and some are expensive. One business is forecast to increase in intrinsic value by over 30% each year for the next three years and another by just 3%. User Roger’s list of A1s as a guide for your own ‘wishlist’, but ensure you always seek personal professional financial advice. Watch the interview.
In his final appearance on Switzer TV for 2011, Peter Switzer asked Roger Montgomery to reveal his top 20 A1 stock picks. So how does a business achieve Roger’s coveted A1 MQR? Unlike conventional wisdom, Roger’s A1s aren’t necessarily ‘blue chips’. Wesfarmers and Qantas may be big businesses, but they don’t make his A1 grade. Businesses that achieve Roger’s A1 or A2 MQR have the lowest probability of a ‘liquidity event’. His A1s are less likely to raise capital, borrow more money, default on debt repayments of breach debt covenants – Roger would be very surprised if any of his A1s went bust! A follower of Roger’s blog went back five years and created a hypothetical portfolio of A1 businesses. The portfolio returned 60% per annum. Watch the interview.
Everyone from the media, to politicians and litigation funders have been busy bashing our banks over the head. Led by a possibly tipped-off/advised Joe Hockey, this particular attack seems to have legs. Have you been distracted by the noise?
Not me, I have been busy looking at the latest set of financial results from ANZ, NAB and WBC and comparing them to my CBA benchmark.
I have spent many hours and analysed many industries and their KPI’s and for the banks I will simply say that CBA and WBC are currently my two highest quality banks (based on the Montgomery Quality Rating). WBC gets an A1 MQR (up from an A5!), CBA is an A2 (up from an A4). They’re also the biggest.
My salient facts for the big four are shown below.
While ANZ appears to be the cheapest and the most tempting, I continue focusing on the goal of filling the portfolio with only the best businesses. So it may prove a better option to exercise patience and wait for wider safety margins. With the latest round of bank bashing and China announcing further tightening measures, I may not have to wait long.
Between now and then you will read many views about the size of each bank’s reported profits, why they have too much power, why they should cut this fee or stop doing this and that. But keep in perspective that no matter what is written or said, they provide many services and functions that are vital to capitalism.
Another important couple of things to remember is that they collectively have 92% market share and don’t provide all (or any!) of their services for free. ATM Fees… Debit Card Transaction Fees… Annual account-maintenance fees… Monthly Account keeping Fees… Minimum Balance Fees… Wire Transfer Fees… Overdraft Protection Fees… Overdrawn fees… Dishonour Fees… Clearance Fees… Statement Fees… Voucher Fees… Periodical Payments or transfer fees… Stop payment fees… Recent Transaction List Fee… Overseas transaction fees… Electronic banking fees… Interest fees… Establishment Fees… Deferred establishment fees… Over the limit fees… Currency conversion fees… Annual Fees… Deposit Fees… Withdrawal Fees… Online-banking fees… Teller fees… the list goes on, there’s even “late” payments fees for paying your credit card too early.
As you might know there are four basic sources of competitive advantage – something Buffett is primarily focused on – they are: economies of scale, the network effect, intellectual property rights and high switching costs. The four biggest banks enjoy both economies of scale and the benefits of high switching costs. It is personally more taxing for a client to change banks than the benefits that inhere from switching. And so very few people switch. As I have often said, if you live on an island with a long swim to anywhere else, then owning a bank is not a bad idea. They can charge you to put your money in, charge you to take your money out and even charge you to find out how much money you have.
For me, being active in the share market can bring on-line brokerage fees, telephone order fees, custody fees, software fees, transfer fees, late settlement fees, margin lending fees etc…
No matter where you turn, the banks are entrenched in my daily life.
And where do all of these fees, along with net interest income and trading profits go? Into wafer thin 1% margins. Yes, our banks rely on massive volumes. WBC has $620b of assets. A 1% return on those assets equates to a profit of $6.2b – roughly what they reported in their full year result.
They are also some of Australia’s highest leveraged businesses shouldering enormous risks (albeit controlled) to generate that return. If you have ever heard that ‘X’ bank has a tier 1 risk weighted capital ratio of 8%, generally this means that the bank is holding only $8 for every $100 that a customer has borrowed. Being highly geared, it is therefore in the bank’s interest to ensure that everything in our economy ticks along.
By far the biggest variable expenses for banks are bad debts. During the GFC when bad debts increased dramatically, do you remember what happened when things turned ugly? Those wafer thin profit margins disappeared like the last Mars Polar Lander. The impact on NAB’s profits, for example, was dramatic with profit in 2009, $2 billion lower than the year before.
With these risks in mind it seems a tad irrational to quibble over the enormous profits being earned, particularly when they are largely returned to Australians. Shareholders receive 70%-80% of profits in fully franked dividends and the Australian public receive 30% of pre-tax profits via tax payments to the government.
On the other side of the coin is the very real fact that these are mature businesses. As Value.able Graduate Richard Quadrio mentioned in his comment here on the blog yesterday, banks can only increase their profit by either lending us more or charging us more. The former depends on our appetite, which may be slowing. That leaves the latter.
In my mind, they have the power to keep increasing prices but the legislators now need to be convinced that they should be allowed to in return for wanting to continue lending and perpetuating the GDP growth dream. Paralysed by these competing forces, I go back to what I know – investing, and ask; which bank is the best? For me that’s the only question – which bank?
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 11 November 2011.
The long title of this book covers what Roger Montgomery sets out to do and he does it well… Value.able is an easy to read book and the reader is not blinded by mathematical formulae. It would be ideal if the book was made compulsory reading for all public company directors and management and Chairpersons ordered all their Board to reread it before considering the takeover being proposed by management. Read the Australian Investors’ Association review.
Westfield plans to spin off half of its Australian and New Zealand assets (about $12 billion) into a new vehicle called the Westfield Retail Trust (WRT). The company It also plans to raise $3.5 billion worth of equity to pay down debt associated with the original vehicle Westfield Group (WDC), which will own the remainder of the assets and stay listed. Roger Montgomery investigates if the de merger will restore the company to its glory days. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
If only it worked that well all the time!
Last Thursday evening (4 November) on Peter’s Switzer TV I listed, amongst other companies, Credit Corp and Forge Group as two I would have in the hypothetical Self Managed Super Fund Peter challenged me to set up that day.
Why did I nominate CCP and FGE? Both receive my A1 or A2 MQR and both have been trading at a discount to their intrinsic value.
If you are a regular reader of my blog you would have read my insights for some months on these companies. And if you saw today’s announcements, you can imagine why I am a little happier than usual.
Credit Corp’s previous 2011 NPAT guidance was $16-$18 million. Today the company announced FY11 would likely produce an NPAT result of $18-$20 million.
Forge Group’s announcement states “The Board wishes to advise that the company forecasts net profit before tax for the half year ending 31st December 2010 to be in the range of $25-$27 million. This represents an improvement on the previous corresponding period (pcp $19.04m) of up to 42%.”
As I fly to Perth for a presentation and company visit, I am encouraged that several of the companies Value.able graduates mentioned in our lists are also hitting new 52-week highs. In a rising market that lifts all boats, it is perhaps unsurprising, but nevertheless it should be an encouragement to Value.able graduates and value investors that companies like FLT, DCG, MIN, FWD, FGE, CCP, NCK, DTL, MCE, MTU and TGA have all hit year highs – some of them yesterday. More importantly those prices are perhaps justified by their intrinsic values.
Of course I am not here to predict where those prices will go next, because I simply don’t know. Short-term prices are largely a function of popularity and the market could begin a QE2-inspired correction, an Indian infrastructure-inspired bubble or a China liquidity-inspired bubble tomorrow. I have no way of telling and instead, I focus on intrinsic values and only pay cursory attention to share prices.
So, as I always say, seek and take personal professional advice before taking any action and remember that 1) I don’t know where the share price is going 2) I am under no obligation to keep you up-to-date with my thoughts about these or any company, my Montgomery Quality Ratings or my valuations and I might change my views, values and MQRs at any time so don’t rely on them and 3) I may buy or sell shares in any company mentioned here at any time without informing you.
And so I remind you one more time. Please seek and take personal professional advice and always conduct your own research.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 9 November 2011.
Despite a glossy $15 million marketing campaign QR National has been rejected by many advisers and retail investors, including Roger Montgomery. Read article.
In this special edition of CNBC Asia’s ‘Protect Your Wealth’, Oriel Morrison asked Roger Montgomery to reveal his Value.able recipe for valuing the best stocks and buying them for less than they’re worth. Roger cautions investors to avoid focusing on who is rowing the boat and instead seek out businesses with little or no debt, high rates of Return on Equity and sustainable competitive advantages. What is Roger’s Montgomery’s most Value.able piece of advice? Only buy A1 businesses when their price is less than their intrinsic value. As Warren Buffett said, “time is the friend of a good business but the enemy of a bad business”. Watch the interview.
