Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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If you’re sitting at home or in your office wondering if the party is over and it’s all turned to pumpkins and mice, allow me to offer you a few insights.
I know of seasoned market practitioners that have deferred the upping of stumps to set up new businesses because they believe there is worse to come. I also know of prominent Australians that are cashing up and I have met with many professional investors who liken the current conditions to those preceding a severe recession or even depression. Berkshire Hathaway shares are trading below $100,000 for the first time in a while (not that it matters). And Bill Gross at Pimco reckons the fact that you can get a better yield over two years by ‘barbelling’ – putting 10 per cent into 30 year bonds and 90 per cent into cash – and beat the yield on 2yr T-Notes is destroying credit creation and so low yields are having the opposite effect to the stimulation they are intended to generate.
Ok. So what do I think?
These are the times to prepare yourself for the possibility of another rare opportunity to buy extraordinary businesses at even more extraordinary discounts to intrinsic value. You have to be ready, you have to have your Value.able intrinsic valuations prepared and your preferred safety margins calculated.
In the short term (6-12 months), on balance, I think shares could get even cheaper (As I write those words, I log on to see the European markets down five per cent and the Dow Jones opening down more than 3 per cent and I am conscious of the fact that an outlook can be tainted by the most recent price direction). But our large cash proportion/position in The Montgomery [Private] Fund since the start of the calendar year has reflected for some time the impact of this possibility on future valuations and our requirement for larger discounts to intrinsic value.
Longer term, I like some of the research put out by McKinsey. The new infrastructure, such as roads, ports, railways and terminals that developing countries such as China, India and South America will need, will require tens of trillions of dollars. McKinsey Global Institute analysis reckons that by 2030 the supply of capital could fall short of demand to the tune of $2.4 trillion – a credit crunch that will slow global GDP growth by a percentage point annually. Even if China and India cool off, a similar gap could occur.
Back to the immediate outlook and there is a simple mental framework that I have been using to think independently about all the ructions impacting our portfolios.
I am no economist, but its pretty easy to see that if trend line US economic growth is barely 1 per cent, then any slowdown in the business cycle will push the economy towards the zero growth line. One per cent is quite simply very close to zero and the business cycle can push growth rates around more than the difference between them. Every time there is a whiff of a slowdown, there will, at the very least ,be fears of another recession. Again, I am not forecasting a recession nor am I forecasting slow growth. Indeed, I am not forecasting at all. I am simply pointing out the fact that tiptoeing on the edge of a precipice (the US at 1 per cent growth) is more frightening than doing circle work in a paddock a long way from any edge at all (China at 7, 8 or 9 per cent growth). Bill Gross’s comments about the destruction of credit further feeds the idea of a slowdown.
On balance I believe there will be some very attractive buying opportunities in the next six to twelve months. Before you read too much into this statement, I should alert you to the fact that I say it every year.
Analysts are prone to optimism too.
I think it’s also appropriate to remember that analysts typically are generally optimistic about earnings forecasts at the start of a financial year. This can be seen in another McKinsey research note (as well as thousands of other similar studies), where analysts commented:
“No executive would dispute that analysts’ forecasts serve as an important benchmark of the current and future health of companies. To better understand their accuracy, we undertook research nearly a decade ago that produced sobering results. Analysts, we found, were typically overoptimistic, slow to revise their forecasts to reflect new economic conditions, and prone to making increasingly inaccurate forecasts when economic growth declined.
Alas, a recently completed update of our work only reinforces this view—despite a series of rules and regulations, dating to the last decade, that were intended to improve the quality of the analysts’ long-term earnings forecasts, restore investor confidence in them, and prevent conflicts of interest. For executives, many of whom go to great lengths to satisfy Wall Street’s expectations in their financial reporting and long-term strategic moves, this is a cautionary tale worth remembering.”
And concluded: “McKinsey research shows that equity analysts have been overoptimistic for the past quarter century: on average, their earnings-growth estimates—ranging from 10 to 12 percent annually, compared with actual growth of 6 percent—were almost 100 percent too high. Only in years of strong growth, such as 2003 to 2006, when actual earnings caught up with earlier predictions, do these forecasts hit the mark.”
Demand bigger discounts
Those thoughts provide the ‘Skaffolding‘ in my mind around which I construct an opinion of where the landmines and risks may be for an investor. I tend to 1) look for much bigger discounts to intrinsic values that are based on analyst projections for earnings and 2) lower our own earnings expectations for those companies we like best.
Cochlear is one example of this. Many analysts have forecast a 10-20 per cent NPAT decline from the recent recall of their Cochlear implant. Only one analyst has considered and forecast a 40-50 per cent NPAT decline. The truth will probably be somewhere in between. Such a decline however would come as a shock to many investors if it were to transpire. And so it is important to be aware of that possibility when calibrating the size of any position in your portfolio. In other words, be sure to have some cash available for such an event because intrinsic value based under that scenario is between $23 and $30.
Your “Top 5”
Earlier this month I asked you to list your “Top 5” value stocks – those that you believed represented good value at present. I was delighted to receive so many contributions.
On behalf of the many Value.able Graduates and stock market investors who read our Insights blog thank you for sharing with us the result of all your fossicking, digging and analysis.
There were more than 115 suggestions. The most popular was Forge Group with 16 mentions.
The following table presents the Quality Score, FY2011 ROE, FY2011 Net Debt/Equity and 2012 Value.able Intrinsic Value for Forge Group (FGE), BHP, Cochlear (COH), M2 Telecommunications (MTU), Woolworths (WOW), ARB Corp (ARP), CSL , Data#3 (DTL), Matrix (MCE), Fleetwood (FWD), JB Hi-Fi (JBH), Mineral Resources (MIN), Blackmores (BKL), Flight Centre (FLT), Lycopodium (LYL), Monadelphous (MDN), Integrated Research (IRI), 1300 Smiles (ONT), ThinkSmart (TSM) and ANZ.
As you know these quality scores and the estimates for intrinsic values can change at a moments notice (just ask those working at Cochlear!) so be sure to conduct your own research into these and any company you are considering investing in and as I always say, be sure to seek and take personal professional advice.
Posted by Roger Montgomery and his A1 team, fund managers and creators of the next-generation A1 stock market service, 23 September 2011.
I’m always looking for Value.able contributions that will enahnce the value of our Insights blog.
Scott’s comparison of the performance of a Value.able A1 portfolio and a conventional portfolio promoted by a large bank over the last six months is one such example. Nick’s contribution here about independent thinking is another. Take it away Nick…
“Most people would rather die than think, in fact they do so.” Bertrand Russell
The title of this post which Roger has kindly let me write for his blog may seem like such elementary and common sense advice that it need not be written at all – kind of like telling a friend to make sure he looks both ways before crossing the freeway.
Is thinking independently when it comes to investing really so obvious? And do people practice it consistently? I would say not. Just because something is obvious does not mean it will be practiced and not thinking independently, by which I mean not thinking for yourself and making up your own mind on an issue (not necessarily having a contrary opinion for the sake of having a contrary opinion), is one of the surest ways to destroy wealth and end up dissatisfied as an investor (aside from the strong likelihood of losing money you will also lack autonomy over your future). I have made this mistake in the past and can speak from experience.
Ben Graham once said “You are neither right nor wrong because the crowd disagrees with you. You are right because your data and reasoning are right.”
And in the 1985 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter to Shareholders, Warren Buffett shares with his readers this story passed down from Ben Graham which illustrates the lemming-like behaviour of the crowd: “Let me tell you the story of the oil prospector who met St. Peter at the Pearly Gates. When told his occupation, St. Peter said, “Oh, I’m really sorry. You seem to meet all the tests to get into heaven. But we’ve got a terrible problem. See that pen over there? That’s where we keep the oil prospectors waiting to get into heaven. And it’s filled – we haven’t got room for even one more.” The oil prospector thought for a minute and said, “Would you mind if I just said four words to those folks?” “I can’t see any harm in that,” said St. Pete. So the old-timer cupped his hands and yelled out, “Oil discovered in hell!”. Immediately, the oil prospectors wrenched the lock off the door of the pen and out they flew, flapping their wings as hard as they could for the lower regions. “You know, that’s a pretty good trick,” St. Pete said. “Move in. The place is yours. You’ve got plenty of room.” The old fellow scratched his head and said, “No. If you don’t mind, I think I’ll go along with the rest of ’em. There may be some truth to that rumour after all.”
This is not the fate you want for yourself!
And don’t let hubris get in the way. Intelligence alone will not keep you away from the dangers of crowd behavior and emotion. One of history’s most gifted minds and scientists, Sir Isaac Newton, was caught up in the emotion and chaos of crowd behavior which resulted in him losing his fortune in the South Sea Shipping Company Bubble. Sir Isaac Newton had previously made a packet on this very same company although after selling and watching the share price continually keep rising, he reinvested everything he had before the crash. For as long as he lived he forbid the words South Sea Shipping Company to ever be mentioned in his presence. It was not a lack of intelligence which brought Sir Isaac unstuck, it was, I argue, his lack of independent thought on the merits of the South Sea Shipping Company as a suitable investment.
“An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative.” Ben Graham.
Once you have determined to think independently and make up your own mind on a company’s current strengths and weaknesses, and its current and future earnings prospects, how do you best do this? Perhaps the most effective way is to follow the advice of the famous algebraist Carl Jacobi who said ‘Invert, always invert.’ So if from your reading you believe company XYZ to be possible investment material (either from Roger’s blog, the newspaper, a friend, your stockbroker) read everything you can and formulate as strong a case as you can on why it would make a lousy investment. If, after having made as strong a case against the company as the information allows, it still looks pretty good and is selling at an attractive price, then it is worthy of further consideration. It has also been useful to me in the past having friends help me out with this. Usually before making an investment I’ll ask my most intelligent and able friends for their opinion on why I shouldn’t invest in company XYZ. This will not mean that you’ll never make a mistake again, although when you do at least you’ll be able to understand why (having studied the reasons against making the decision in the first place).
“I want to be able to explain my mistakes. This means I do only the things I completely understand.” Warren Buffet
Charlie Munger, in a speech given at USC (which you can all view on YouTube) says “I have what I call an iron prescription that helps me keep sane when I naturally drift to preferring one ideology over another and that is I say I am not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless I can state the arguments against my position better than the people who are supporting it.” This is great advice, and to tailor it to investing all you need to do is replace the word ‘subject’ with ‘company.’
Charlie Munger also likes to talk about the importance of having a latticework of mental models in your head and how the big ideas from across a broad range of disciplines can often be used in sync to best analyse a particular problem. I won’t expand on this now, although can recommend his speeches and essays which are easily available on the internet.
Having a great interest in investing, I find this blog is a wonderful source of ideas and learning and really enjoy reading the comments written every day. That said, one way in which I believe it could be improved is for there to be more argument and questioning, something which is happening more and more as the share price of recent blog favorites has dropped. If someone says they believe XYZ to be a great quality company without providing reasons they should be held to account and asked why? If the only response is that Roger has it as an A1 then a fail grade would be mandatory. If someone says they believe that company XYZ has excellent earnings prospects they should again be asked why? And if their response is that the analysts consensus on Comsec says so then again, another F.
I hope that this post may have been of some interest and if you have some stories of success as a result of independent thinking, I would be very interested in reading them.
Nick Mason
Roger’s Note: And if you have a similarly lucid and instructive idea that you would like share here at our Insights blog, go ahead and submit. Not every contribution can be published as a post, but we will certainly post those we like.
Posted by Roger Montgomery and his A1 team, fund managers and creators of the next-generation A1 stock market service, 23 September 2011.
The track record of acquisitions in Australia is nothing short of appalling. To the detriment of employees and shareholders, hundreds of billions of dollars have been lost. Yet managers continue to be remunerated for sub-standard returns. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
If Roger Montgomery had the opportunity to buy shares in Corportae Travel Management when it floated, he would have jumped at the opportunity. Today the intrinsic value of CTD is $1.58 and is forecast to rise to $1.90 over the next three years. Like Hansen Technologies (HSN), CTD achieves Roger Montgomery’s coveted A1 status. In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger also shares his Value.able insights on the demise of Leighton and the future prospects for QBE. Watch the interview.
Cochlear is one of the highest-quality companies listed on the ASX today. This week the recall of its flagship hearing device resulted in the subsequent slashing of the company’s share price, by almost 30 per cent in three days. Remember, during the GFC Cochlear shares fell from $78 to $44. In 2021 we won’t be thinking about this recent recall, just as nobody now talks about the Wembley Stadium delays that dogged Multiplex back in 2006. So are Cochlear’s glory days over, or is it oversold? Will the recall inflict permanent scars? Roger Montgomery’s guess is that it will not. Indeed, the sell-down could be a dream come true for value investors. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
With reporting season over, and armed with the Value.able mantra, how are you uncovering the very best stocks worthy of your attention?
Lifebuoy soap was once marketed as Floating Above the Rest. Are there any companies post reporting season doing the same?
While many of my peers believe 2012 could be a very difficult year for investors, there are currently a selection of companies that appear to be both high quality and trading at prices offering a rational safety margin compared to our estimates of their intrinsic value.
Each reporting season we present a short-list of companies worthy of careful analysis. This reporting season is no different. As always, the list is not exhaustive. You are free to agree, disagree or append the list. Indeed, I encourage you to do so. For debate often brings A1 ideas.
I decided to look for Large Caps, Mid Caps, Small Caps, Micro Caps and Nano Caps with an A1 or A2 Quality Score across all sectors and industry groups.
I’m also interested in companies for which there are analyst forecasts for at least one year ahead and whose current market price offers a safety margin of more than 10 per cent.
From over 2080 listed companies, 17 meet the criteria.
An attractive and sustainable Return on Equity is also important, so let’s seek out companies whose ROE is greater than 20 per cent in the most recent financial year, have a forecast dividend yield of more than four per cent and whose intrinsic value that is forecast to rise at least six per cent per annum.
The result?
Nine companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value that may be worthy of your attention.
Here they are: Seymour Whyte (ASX:SWL), Nick Scali (NCK), Codan (CDA), M2 Telecommunications (MTU), Credit Corp (CCP), Global Construction Services (GCS), Breville Group (BBG), GR Engineering (GNG) and Flight Centre (FLT).
If we were in a bull market, I suspect a stampede to get ‘set’ may ensue, without proper research. With the luxury of a market where the tide may still be going out, you may just have the indulgence of time to conduct plenty of research. Regardless, independent research is essential. As is seeking personal, professional financial advice.
So, what have you been researching? Go ahead and list your “Top 5”. We’ll put together a worthy riposte.
Alternatively, put forward your A1 suggestions and we’ll compile a list of intrinsic valuations and Skaffold® Quality Ratings for the next blog post.
Finally, keep in mind that I cannot predict where the share prices for these companies are headed. They could all halve, or worse. And remember, seek and take personal professional advice.
Posted by Roger Montgomery and his A1 team, fund managers and creators of the next-generation A1 stock market service, 8 September 2011.
In this appearance on Switzer TV with Peter Switzer, Roger Montgomery searched through large caps, mid caps, small caps and micro caps to uncover a list of A1 and A2 businesses. He then filtered out those companies who achieve a Return on Equity greater than 20 per cent, currently offer a safety margin greater than 10 per cent and whose intrinsic value is forecast to rise by at least six per cent over the next three years. Watch this interview and discover nine companies that make Roger Montgomery’s A1 grade. Watch the interview.
If your strategy is to buy extraordinary businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value, Woolworths offers the required combination. Roger Montgomery explains why Woolworths is a good buy. Read Roger’s article.
Money magazine published an edited extract from Roger Montgomery’s best-selling stock market guide book, Value.able. Read the extract then order your copy of Value.able at www.rogermontgomery.com.
What is the definition of a defensive investment? Despite the tired and predictable answers you are likely to get from the advice industry, it’s a fascinating question to ponder at a time when many traditionally ‘safe’ investment choices are exceedingly unattractive. Roger Montgomery has spent some time thinking about this conundrum and has arrived at an unorthodox conclusion. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
