The correlation between money supply and equity market returns has never been clearer.  Right now, central banks are intent on fighting inflation by hiking interest rates and shrinking their balance sheets – which has led to the current market sell-off. But when central banks change tack, we should see markets rally once more. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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With Sean, Alan and Dan, from Australian Eagle, having now planted their feet firmly under the desks here at the Montgomery offices in Castlereagh Street, I thought it was time I share some more of the reasoning behind our partnership. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Montgomery News and Updates.

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Roger joined Philip Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss whether interest rates will succeed in staving off a recession and how much of an impact we can expect on house prices. Today, CPI inflation has risen to 6.1 per cent and underlying inflation is 4.9 per cent. These are the highest rates in many years. There is a real economic challenge coming for the newly minted federal government.

Are continual interest rate rises the right approach to curbing a national recession?
Listen to the podcast here: ABC Nightlife 13 September 2022

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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The market is split on the investment case for consumer discretionary stocks. On the one hand, rate rises are designed to cool demand, and squeeze household cash flows and balance sheets. On the other hand, the labour market is strong, incomes are high, and people have savings buffers to draw upon. Roger joins Ausbiz to discuss the signs across the domestic and international economies that consumer demand is about slow. Watch: Why Roger is underweight consumer discretionary

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Fintech-based lenders have emerged since the introduction of the peer-to-peer platform Zopa in the United Kingdom in 2005. Fintech lenders aim to reduce friction in the borrowing process for their customers, reducing the turnaround time from application to funding and offer products which best suit the borrowing needs of the customer. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Financial Services.

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Reading between the spreadsheet lines, the annual earnings season has given a few hints of what is to come for corporate Australia and the broader economy over the next year. The annual results of Australia’s top 200 listed companies is a scorecard of how they performed over the last 12 months, as well as what they’re hoping to achieve for the year ahead. Every reporting season has a few losers.

Roger Montgomery warns some retailers could be in for more pain as inflation rises and people refrain from spending. “Another after effect from COVID has been the persistent supply chain issues that companies are facing, and we saw companies like City Chic, Lovisa and Supercheap Auto responding to those supply chain difficulties by investing more in inventory,” he observed.

Read the article in full:
Rachel Pupazzoni: Corporate Australia just received a glowing profit report card, but the outlook is not as rosy

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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The RBA has raised rates for the fifth month in a row bringing the cash rate to 2.35% with the expectation of reining in inflation by the end of the year. Largely in line with market expectations, the RBA raised the cash rate by 50 basis points. This is the highest cash rate since early 2015. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.

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There are no doubts some extraordinary businesses exist in the Australian consumer discretionary sector. Names like ARB, Nick Scali, JB Hi-Fi and Lovisa jump to mind as soon as talk turns to the consumer. But as we examine the shape of our portfolios, one glaring active weight is the underweighting we have to consumer discretionary companies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.

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