While stocks have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, most investors are anticipating a recession either later this year or in the first half of 2024. Such is the extent of recessionary expectations, derivative investors are predicting at least three rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve or just over 100 basis points of cuts to the Fed Funds rate. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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In this week’s video insight David discusses how investors seeking regular income should consider the Aura High Yield SME Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund. As the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have tightened their official cash rate over the past year, we have seen the monthly payments of the Aura fund’s jump from around 0.60 per cent per month towards 0.80 per cent per month. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Video Insights.

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is determined to crush inflationary expectations, with their 12th increase in official cash rates in the 19 months since 6 October 2021 from 0.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets.

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Since rates commenced rising, we have been tracking the consumer closely, waiting for the inflection point where inflation and higher mortgage commitments meet the end of government financial support and savings dry up. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.

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I joined ABC’s The Business to discuss Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) businesses including AfterPay and Zip. We always thought these companies were mediocre – they were over-valued, with unsustainable growth and increasing competition.

Way back in 2018 I warned investors about the BNPL space and continued to do so in 2019, and 2020, questioning how long the euphoria would last. Fast forward to today, BNPL providers are facing a raft of new regulations. Is their future now even more concerning?

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, TV Appearances.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has recently reported on various leading indicators that contribute to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monthly monetary policy decisions. The wage price index released last week reported the largest annual increase in wage growth in more than 10 years. The labour market also remains strong. Household spending growth has finally begun to show signs of slowing. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.

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With apologies to De La Soul for hijacking the title of one of their hit songs, we discuss here three companies that are currently held in our domestic funds.  All three can be found in the portfolios of The Montgomery Fund and The Montgomery [Private] Fund, managed by Sean Sequeira, Alan Kwan and Daniel Chan. Corporate Travel Management is also held by Gary Rollo and Dominic Rose in the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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The following chart pack reveals the material underperformance of U.S. and global small companies against their larger-capitalisation peers. The relative performances are displayed over the last twelve months and the 2023 calendar year to date (YTD). Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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