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The bull case for small caps
Roger Montgomery
September 26, 2025
If you were listening carefully during reporting season, you might have noticed a growing buzz around small-cap stocks, both here in Australia and in the United States.
More investors are now seeing small caps as a hidden gem. Small caps seem undervalued, overlooked, and are showing signs of a strong recovery.
If you don’t already have an allocation to small caps in your portfolio, now could be the right time to take a closer look. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Negative Equity Risk Premium – what does it all mean?
Roger Montgomery
September 25, 2025
I recently read an interesting post on Substack about the state of the market. However, there was one paragraph whose significance might have been missed, even by those who subscribe to the author’s musings.
Here’s the paragraph in question, followed by what I hope will prove a useful explanation.
The paragraph was titled “No Equity Risk Premium.”
“Meanwhile the macro-middle scenario that has prevailed in 2025 has helped stocks push higher, and with still elevated bond yields that has squeezed the forward-looking “prospective equity risk premium” deeper into the negatives. That may not matter this week, this month, or even this quarter, but it does tell us the forward looking risk vs return set points to an entirely different regime than what we’ve become accustomed to.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.
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In gold we trust
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2025
With trust in central financial institutions being undermined, and with the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s unassailable reserve currency being called into question, it comes as no surprise that gold is the asset cementing its place in the spotlight.
As Figure 1., reveals the exponential ascent of gold’s price. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Fear + Greed – what went wrong at Myer
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2025
I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear + Greed yesterday to discuss Myer’s disappointing announcement of a 30 per cent decline in profit, which was followed by a 25 per cent drop in its share price.
So, what went wrong?
As a traditional bricks-and-mortar department store, Myer has been grappling with significant challenges. Its move into the highly competitive online retail space has brought debt and complex integration issues, while also placing it in direct competition with pure-play online retailers. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.
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Sky high bond yields: a reckoning for equity investors?
Roger Montgomery
September 24, 2025
A falling U.S. dollar, China and Russia stacking gold and angling to take Taiwan, surging U.S. debt and a President dismantling the independence of America’s central bank. It’s no wonder bond yields are high.
Fiscal recklessness is stirring in the bond markets, and long-dated government debt appears to be under siege once again. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries were at 4.97 per cent at the start of September – now at 4.66 per cent – and near their highest level since 2007, Britain’s 30-year gilts spiked to a 27-year high of 5.75 per cent at the start of September, while Japan’s 20-year notes flirted with levels unseen since 1999. French and Australian sovereign bonds yields are soaring too. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Are the Magnificent Seven still magnificent?
Roger Montgomery
September 23, 2025
In 2025, so far, the seven most influential U.S. tech giants – The Magnificent Seven, or Mag 7 (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Tesla and Nvidia) – have continued to assert their dominance and reinforce their role in determining the S&P 500’s trajectory. Despite what appears to be artificial intelligence (AI) hype, or perhaps because of it, the seven giants have collectively outpaced the broader S&P 500’s 12.47 per cent year-to-date (YTD) rise, delivering a gain of 15.9 per cent through Monday’s close. At the same time, however, their market-capitalisation share has dropped slightly from a peak of 32.2 per cent in mid-August to 31.3 per cent of the S&P 500’s total value. That indicates some stocks outside of the Mag 7 have been outperforming them. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Polen Capital, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Turbulence in global bonds and a steady beat in US earnings
Roger Montgomery
September 22, 2025
If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Statewide drive – when boards fail, investors pay the price
David Buckland
September 19, 2025
I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss how scandals at Super Retail Group, Qantas, and Star Entertainment reveal a troubling pattern: CEOs behaving badly and boards failing to act. From cover-ups to ignored red flags, weak oversight has led to billions in fines, lost trust, and damaged valuations. I stressed that it’s often the cover-up that sinks a CEO – and that boards must demand transparency, independence, and stronger governance to protect investors.
Listen to the full interview from 1:46:00 here: Statewide Drive – when boards fail, investors will pay the priceby David Buckland Posted in Radio.
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