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Hardly normal conditions for Harvey Norman
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2023
For big-ticket household items, established retailer Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN) is a bellwether company, offering insights into consumer behaviour and retail conditions, particularly in Australia. The company recently released its first-half results, and reactions were mixed. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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P/E multiple movements promote equity market volatility
David Buckland
March 6, 2023
When I joined the financial services industry nearly four decades ago, many high-quality industrial businesses were on a single digit P/E multiple. Interest rates and inflation were extremely high, and an old-timer in the office used to apply a rule that the P/E multiple plus inflationary expectations should approximate 20. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 03 March 2023
Brett Craig
March 3, 2023
This week, the ABS data has begun to paint a picture of a more subdued economic environment, where we are starting to see a slight drop in inflation, household savings and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the data. The RBA likely sees the shift in inflation as welcome news, with the effective monetary policy tightening to date finally starting to take effect. The market is still pricing in several hikes in the next 3 months. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Why Private Debt may be superior to bonds
Roger Montgomery
March 3, 2023
Looking for a higher rate of income? Who isn’t? But are bonds best? For decades investors have been told bonds provide uncorrelated ‘ballast’ for a portfolio of shares whilst generating much-needed regular income. The idea has been that shares offer growth, with bonds also offering diversification and stability. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick.
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A tough road ahead for consumer discretionary businesses
David Buckland
March 2, 2023
In late-2022 Australian household deposits were $175 billion above trend, and this “extra cash” was largely in the hands of the 65+ years of age cohort. After many years of financial repression, these older Australians will enjoy earning a more reasonable return on their spare cash. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2023
After a 4.65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises. If I’m right, the U.S. economy might avoid a recession in 2023. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Why you shouldn’t worry about ‘what comes next’
Roger Montgomery
February 28, 2023
Lately, I’ve seen a number of media reports pondering if world economies – and equity markets – are headed for a soft, hard or no landing. To me, this kind of talk is a bit of a distraction. Because, as a long-term investor, the objective is still the same: to buy quality companies at good prices. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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For travel stocks, it’s up, up and away
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2023
If you’ve travelled lately and felt stung by the big increases in airfares and accommodation prices, you might think about ‘revenge investing’ in some travel companies. Because, since the post-pandemic re-opening, many – like Flight Centre and Qantas – have seen a big increase in patronage, profits and share price. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like, Tourism.
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