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Should we be in a recession already?
Roger Montgomery
June 2, 2023
We have been optimistic about the prospects for equities this year despite fears of recession. And even though investors have listed a deeply inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve, a sharp drop in the oil price, falling consumer demand, credit tightening and declining M2 money supply as reasons to justify expectations of a recession, the outcome is not guaranteed. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is there a bright future ahead for Aeris Resources and Rex Minerals?
David Buckland
June 1, 2023
I recently concluded that while Copper’s near-term outlook remains closely linked to global industrial production expectations, as the global supply/demand curve heads into a deficit later this decade we expect the Copper price to hit record highs. Today, I wanted to focus on two relatively junior Australian Copper plays, owned by the Montgomery Small Companies Fund, Aeris Resources (ASX:AIS) and Rex Minerals (ASX:RXM). Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.
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Quality growth – the recipe for success
Michael Gollagher
May 31, 2023
2023 has been a challenging year for stock markets, when we commenced in January we launched with a bang, with strong market returns occurring across the globe. By the time February approached volatility had set in and we find ourselves in a situation where like tropical weather, the forecast can change at a moment’s notice. Continue…
by Michael Gollagher Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like, Technology & Telecommunications.
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How much more financial pressure can Australian mortgagees take?
Sean Sequeira
May 30, 2023
Talk to anyone on the street these days and the conversation will inevitably turn to how inflation is increasing their cost of living in some form or another. Inflation has risen steadily since the beginning of 2022 despite the determined efforts of Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to bring it back towards its target range of 2-3 per cent. Continue…
by Sean Sequeira Posted in Companies, Financial Services.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 26 May 2023
Brett Craig
May 29, 2023
Over the past decade, regulatory capital treatment has seen Authorised Deposit-taking Institutions or major Banks (ADIs) pull back from originating specialised asset-based loans, instead gaining exposure via asset-backed facilities secured by asset-based loans originated by non-bank lenders. Due to ADIs’ preference to invest only in large, mature facilities with a AAA rating, there is an inherent funding gap. This week we explore how specialised investment managers, such as the Aura Private Credit team, provide curated access for investors to this asset class via securitisation or asset-backed facilities. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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Universal Store’s share price plunges after trading update
Roger Montgomery
May 29, 2023
Sentiment remains extremely tentative. Good news is met with share price gains of one or two per cent but disappointment is met with market capitalisations falling by a quarter or more in a single day. That sentiment met Universal Stores (ASX:UNI) last week, as it released its trading update, which also offered insights into consumer behaviour and guidance for its Full Year 2023 result. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Ausbiz: Is it safe to re-enter still shark-infested retail waters?
Roger Montgomery
May 26, 2023
I joined Ausbiz to discuss whether the increased interest rates are finally hurting consumers. There have been some recent profit warnings from discretionary retailers which show the strain on consumer spending. Is now a better time to avoid retailers and focus on other opportunities? Watch the interview: Is it safe to re-enter still shark-infested retail waters?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Value.able.
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Is investing in a furniture retailer ahead of a recession a bad idea?
Roger Montgomery
May 26, 2023
While stocks have climbed the proverbial wall of worry, most investors are anticipating a recession either later this year or in the first half of 2024. Such is the extent of recessionary expectations, derivative investors are predicting at least three rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve or just over 100 basis points of cuts to the Fed Funds rate. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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