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Why is the S&P 500 rallying amidst uncertain times?
Roger Montgomery
June 20, 2023
While our predicted 2023 stock market rally appears robust at first glance, the reality reveals a different story. Initially, pessimists expected the aggressive series of interest rate hikes in 2022 to have significant consequences. Consensus the U.S. faces a recession, led many to predict a decline in stock values. However, contrary to these expectations, the U.S. economy has continued to grow, and the S&P 500 Index, which influences global investor sentiment, has risen by over 15.3 per cent this year. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Adairs – real estate turnover AND slowing consumption
Roger Montgomery
June 17, 2023
The Australian homewares retailer Adairs Limited (ASX:ADH), is currently confronting the forces associated with a slowdown in foot traffic at its stores and a decline in online traffic due to declining consumption and falling turnover in residential real estate. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary.
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Aura Private Credit: Letter to investors 16 June 2023
Brett Craig
June 16, 2023
The NAB Business Survey for the May reporting period has begun to demonstrate a significant slowing in activity and has identified widespread apprehension towards the future economic outlook. The survey results reported widespread weakening across most of the indicators, as high inflation and interest rates are now starting to limit growth and general market optimism. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz: AI – a bubble or the real deal?
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2023
I joined Ausbiz to discuss artificial intelligence (AI) and why investors should take a step back and consider how companies will monetise AI to create a real secular trend. Will we see a bubble if revenue fails to materialise? Watch here: AI – a bubble or the real deal?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.
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Will increased migration boost car sales and auto stocks?
Roger Montgomery
June 16, 2023
The surprising jump in house prices – surprising because it comes amid rising interest rates – has been put down to a lack of supply and accelerating immigration. By the same token, immigration should also lead to a boost in car sales. Could this have a positive effect on the fortunes of companies like AP Eagers (ASX:APE), Carsales (ASX:CAR) and Autosports Group (ASX:ASG)? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Banks have left a $240 billion gap, now savvy investors are seeing opportunity
Brett Craig
June 15, 2023
Private credit used to be the domain of high net worth investors but that is all changing as nimble operators fill a gap in the market.There’s a $240 billion funding gap facing the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that employ 70 per cent of the population. SMEs play an essential role in the economy. However, changes to regulatory requirements are making it harder for them to access funding to help them innovate and grow. Continue…
by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Video Insights.
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How AI will put a lid on incomes – and inflation
Roger Montgomery
June 15, 2023
Despite all the money that’s been pumped into the economy, inflation may not be a problem in the longer term. After all, money supply has been rising at an exponential rate since the 1960s and yet, since 1980, inflation has been in decline. I believe there are two key structural reasons for this – the massive drop in unionized labour, and the rise of job-displacing automation. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.
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Thinking about retailers right now?
Roger Montgomery
June 14, 2023
Australian consumer-facing companies have faced unprecedented challenges and undergone significant transformation since the bushfires of 2019. From the profound impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic to violent mix-shifts from goods to services, and digital advancements, the sector has navigated a complex landscape. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.
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- POSTED IN Consumer discretionary.
