In April this year, as U.S. equity markets fell – dragged down by Trump tariff headlines and inflation fears – long bond yields, arguably, should have declined as investors fled to safety. At first, the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to 3.86 per cent on April 4, but by April 9, rather than continuing to fall, yields surged, with the 10‑year up to around 4.50 per cent and the 30‑year jumping 54 basis points – breaking the usual inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW), one half of Australia’s supermarket duopoly, just released its full-year results for the 2025 financial year. The numbers painted a picture of significant headwinds and a planned recovery. The results were largely in line with consensus expectations, but the company spelled out a softer-than-anticipated outlook, triggering a sharp sell-off in the stock.

At the time of writing, Woolworths shares have likely made a significant dent in super funds, having fallen to around $29 from more than $33 yesterday. Investors are particularly concerned about declining profits, margin pressures, and challenges in key segments, despite the company highlighting pockets of strength in digital operations and internationally. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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In what is yet another controversial move, US President Donald Trump has asserted federal authority over the Washington, D.C., police department while mobilising 800 National Guard troops to the nation’s capital. He frames the move and deployment as a necessary response to rampant crime, but critics argue it reveals deeper authoritarian tendencies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Auckland International Airport (ASX:AIA), New Zealand’s premier gateway handling the bulk of the nation’s international traffic, delivered a resilient performance for 2025, after navigating a weakening economy, airline capacity constraints, and ongoing infrastructure investments. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Airlines, Companies, Stocks We Like.

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In this week’s video insight I explore signs that today’s bull market may be showing signs of a bubble. The bulls point to two key observations supporting the markets’s strength. First, market breadth is widening – with more stocks joining the rally. And second, earnings momentum is improving with over 80 per cent of U.S. companies seeing positive earnings revisions. 

While these observations appear supportive on the surface, they can also be read as signs of a maturing bull market edging towards a bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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Last night I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to explore Kenneth Rogoff’s warnings on the looming U.S. debt pile and the end of the “free money” era, and why investors should stay cautious. With debt levels near WWII highs, foreign buyers showing less appetite for U.S. bonds, and Trump’s tax cuts paired with massive borrowing, the risks of a crisis are mounting. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Value.able.

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I am fascinated by the standard descriptions of returns cited by commentators in the real estate market. I am also disappointed that a regular opportunity to educate investors about returns is so frequently missed. 

Back in July, an article in The Australian Financial Review, entitled Renovators’ return: How to maximise property value in 2025, observed, “The nurse and engineer have transformed the house they bought in Adelaide’s seaside Glenelg for $450,000 back in 2012. They’re now looking to sell for $1.9 million, a four-fold return compared with the doubling of house prices over the same period.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined David Taylor on ABC The Business to discuss signs that the market might be entering bubble territory.  

Sharemarkets continue to climb, driven by fear of missing out (FOMO), expectations of interest rate cuts, and easing global tensions. But these same forces are also evidence that this boom could be shifting into the early stages of a bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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