In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I discussed the complex landscape for Australian consumers and the retail sector. While higher income earners are driving spending, lower income groups are tightening their belts, focusing on essentials like utilities and mortgages. Data from UBS and Finder reveals consumer trends remain resilient despite economic uncertainty. Retailers like JB Hi-Fi (ASX:JBH) and Nick Scali (ASX:NCK) have shown strong performance by gaining market share, particularly through overseas expansion, whereas others, like Harvey Norman (ASX:HVN), have lagged. Looking ahead to Christmas and Black Friday sales, I expect steady spending from wealthier consumers, but a drop among lower-income households, highlighting the challenges ahead for the retail sector.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, TV Appearances.

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Back in June 24, the picture for Australian consumers was ominously darkening.  While Australia’s major lenders had reported only modest increases in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, data from the Australian Securities and Investment Commission (ASIC) revealed Australia was on track to record the highest number of collapsed businesses in ten years, with businesses in the building game and in food services bearing the brunt of the impact from consumers ‘zipping up their wallets’. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary.

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Australia is experiencing a population and demographic transformation, with nearly 50 per cent of our population able to claim at least one parent born overseas. George Tharenou of UBS analysed the implications in his recent report entitled “How will a ‘Big Australia’ impact the economy and the ‘intergenerational contract’?” The report dives deep into the effects of Australia’s population boom on the economy, asset prices, productivity, housing, and superannuation. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick.

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Yesterday, I joined the How Do They Afford That? podcast with Canna Campbell and Michael Thompson to discuss how different generations should approach investing. We covered key considerations for younger investors, including the importance of getting started early and understanding risk, as well as strategies for those closer to retirement who need to balance growth with stability. It was a fantastic discussion, packed with insights for anyone looking to build their financial future.
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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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Working in derivatives trading back in the early nineties, one of the aphorisms that became a gospel-given truth was, ‘volatility is heightened at turning points’. It has been my experience that volatility clusters around turning points, but perhaps I only remember that because I want to. If big moves also occur in the middle of bull and bear markets, my aphorism becomes the product of selective memory. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss the compelling features of the Aura Private Credit Income Fund. The fund has outperformed the stock market with zero volatility, providing a 9.64% compounded annual return over seven years, with no negative months, including during the COVID pandemic. The fund lends to small and medium-sized businesses in Australia, leaving a $400 billion opportunity left by big banks, while offering a diversified loan book and no lock-up period. I also highlight the first-loss structure that provides additional security for investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.

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This week, I had the pleasure of joining Gemma Dale on the nabtrade podcast, ‘Your Wealth’. We discussed how billionaire investor, Warren Buffett has recently made headlines with a huge selldown in Apple stock. As his cash pile grows, some are wondering whether it’s time to trim exposure to equities; we delve into if Buffett has lost his touch.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Podcast Channel.

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In this week’s video insight, I discuss Australia’s sluggish economic growth, marked by six consecutive quarters of gross domestic product (GDP) decline per capita – the worst result since the early 1980s, outside of the COVID-19 pandemic. I explore how rising interest rates and increased government spending have fueled inflation and exacerbated the ongoing cost-of-living crisis. I also share my personal investment approach, focusing on the Aura Private Credit Income Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund, which have provided strong returns despite these economic challenges.  Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics.

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