I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss why Australia may be heading down the same path as Canada and New Zealand. Net overseas migration has nearly doubled from an average of 220,000 people per annum between 2007 and 2022 to around 423,000 per annum since May 2022, yet real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita has been positive in only 4 of the past 15 quarters. We also discussed Australia’s weak productivity growth and whether population growth has been masking a slowing economy.

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by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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Based on the 2026–27 Federal Budget, the Australian Government expects its comprehensive tax reform package – anchored by changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) and negative gearing – to raise just over $40 billion over 10 years. On an annual basis, this averages approximately $4 billion, though revenue will increase from a lower base over time due to the grandfathering and transitional rules built into the legislation.

As an aside, it has triggered widespread condemnation because, despite the changes being so significant, they weren’t taken to an election. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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I joined Phil Clark on ABC Nightlife to discuss the Federal Government’s changes to capital gains tax (CGT) and negative gearing, and whether the reforms will improve housing affordability for younger Australians. We explored the potential impact on property investors, first-home buyers and housing supply, as well as the broader economic consequences of reducing incentives to invest. We also discussed the upcoming SpaceX IPO, concerns around its rapid inclusion in major indices, and why calm oil prices may be masking growing risks in global energy markets.

Listen here: ABC Nightlife Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Market commentary, Property, Radio.

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On May 11, Wall Street’s most bullish analyst raised his year-end S&P 500 target from 7700 to 8250, the highest forecast on Wall Street. He did so because of the strength and breadth of S&P 500 earnings during the Q1 earnings reporting season.

Citing Fabulous Earnings Momentum (FEMO), Yardeni expects this year’s stock market melt-up to be more sustainable than a FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)-led rally.

However, even Yardeni has turned more cautious in the near term. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources.

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The four horsemen of the Apocalypse are Conquest, War, Famine, and Death. Artificial intelligence (AI) has ‘Conquered’; in the Middle East, ‘War’ is underway and could take years to resolve, and changes afoot in enterprise-level AI spending would be akin to ‘Famine’ for AI hyperscalers that have spent trillions on scaling out the technology. All that awaits is the ‘Death’ of the AI bubble. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Bullish investors believe AI is a new, infinite fourth factor of a nation’s production and wealth creation. In the past, we had labour, capital and land as production inputs, all of which were, of course, finite. Land provided the raw materials, labour the muscle and the mind to transform them, and capital was the tool.

Enter AI. The transformative aspect of this fourth ingredient is that, unlike the physical limitations of land or the finite hours of the human workforce, data is a resource that is functionally unlimited. And, importantly, it’s the only factor of production that actually grows more abundant the more we use it.

This article was first published in The Australian on 27 May 2026.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Popular, Technology & Telecommunications.

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I joined Niav Owens on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss what history tells us about oil-price spikes and share markets, and why falling oil prices are not always positive for equities. We also explored the growing excitement around SpaceX, including the bullish case for the company, concerns about its proposed IPO structure, and why investors should be cautious of getting caught up in market hype. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I take a closer look at the upcoming SpaceX IPO and some of the concerns being raised by critics. While many investors expect the listing to be a major success, I explore questions around the company’s unprecedented valuation, the folding of other Elon Musk ventures into SpaceX, rule changes that could accelerate its inclusion in major indices, and whether forced buying by index funds may help drive the share price higher. I also discuss the risk that early investors and insiders could benefit most, while everyday investors are left carrying the long-term risks. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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