ARB’s financial year 2025 ( FY25) results reflect a challenging environment, with a four per cent profit before tax (PBT) miss driven by lower gross margins. The Thai Baht’s strength and lower factory recoveries (more on this below) squeezed margins, a trend exacerbated by ARB’s unhedged foreign exchange (FX) exposure. However, the company’s ability to offset this through cost control – particularly a leaner employee cost base – demonstrates operational resilience. The 50-cent special dividend, backed by a net cash position and significant property assets, highlights ARB’s financial strength and management’s confidence in future cash flows. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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In an interview earlier this month, Michael Howell of CrossBorder Capital  delivered his analysis of the global liquidity environment and its implications for financial markets. His message to investors was clear: liquidity, not interest rates or economic cycles, remains the true driver of asset performance – and right now, the liquidity tide is rising. But as always, tides reverse. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Today, I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss what’s powering Bitcoin’s bull case. I explained that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to global central bank liquidity which has been rising since late 2022. With over US$300 trillion in global debt that requires constant refinancing – central banks are forced to inject liquidity, effectively deflating the U.S. dollar. That’s why Bitcoin, like gold, is increasingly being seen as a natural hedge. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Commonwealth Bank’s (ASX:CBA) financial year 2025 (FY25) result might just have been a study in strategic restraint. Cash profit rose 4 per cent to $10.3 billion – right on consensus –underpinned by stronger wholesale banking in the second half and solid growth in both home and business lending. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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Breville Group (ASX: BRG), the premium kitchen appliance maker behind brands like Breville and Sage, has released its full-year results for financial year 2025 (FY25). The company’s results largely met or slightly exceeded expectations, with strong revenue growth across regions and categories. Strategic initiatives including geographic expansion and manufacturing diversification were highlighted.

However, attention has been drawn to looming U.S. tariff impacts, which could pressure margins next year and beyond. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Stocks We Like.

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Yesterday on ABC Newcastle Mornings with Paul Turton, I shared some thoughts on the roundtable convened by Treasurer Jim Chalmers in Canberra. I discussed the widening wealth gap in Australia and how capitalism, without proper oversight, often concentrates wealth in the hands of a few. Left unchecked, this can destabilise societies and fail to account for environmental costs such as resource depletion and pollution. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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With Jim Chalmers’, Treasurer of Australia, three-day roundtable kicking off yesterday, I thought it would be interesting to hear what different parts of the community were seeking. Of course, while collaboration is expected, consensus will be impossible, partly because of the diverse attendees, which includes representatives from the unions, government, business and civil society.

The other issue is that solutions require an understanding of the problem’s root cause.  And when we are talking about labour productivity, most cannot even agree on first principles. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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For the last month or two, I have been writing with increasing frequency about the possibility of the stock market boom transitioning into a bubble. There are a variety of reasons for this, and they usually fall under two broad headings. The first is technical and the second is behavioural. Often the latter influences the former, but the reverse can also be true, so let’s agree that the sets in the Venn diagram intersect. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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