It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

In financial markets, it’s said history doesn’t repeat, but it frequently rhymes. The recent bond market moves seem to reflect a market rhyming with the 2023 bond tantrum, threatening to disrupt everything from home mortgages and corporate credit to government financing and equity valuations.

U.S. Treasury yields have broken out of what has widely been described as a multi-year range, pushing the benchmark U.S.10-year yield toward 5.00 per cent. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary.

Clint Maddock, Director and Co-Founder of Digital Asset Funds Management (DAFM), speaks with Chris Gosselin, CEO of Australian Fund Monitors, about the DAFM Digital Income Fund – Digital Income Class. They discuss the fund’s arbitrage strategy, the impact of lower crypto volatility and trading volumes, the outlook for digital asset markets, and DAFM’s distribution partnership with Montgomery. 

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Digital Asset Funds Management, Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Digital Asset Funds Management, Video Insights.

I joined Jess Maguire on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss rising U.S. interest rates and bond yields, what is driving them, and the potential flow-on effects for Australia. We also explored government debt, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, equity markets and what higher borrowing costs could mean for investors.

Listen from 1:43:51 here: ABC Statewide Drive 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary, Radio.

I joined Juliette Saly on Ausbiz to discuss rising U.S. bond yields and what higher interest rates could mean for markets. We also explored growing U.S. government debt, competition for capital from the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure boom, and the warning signs to watch across mortgages, highly leveraged companies and credit markets.

Watch here: The $40 trillion debt problem facing U.S. markets 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

In recent months, the chart shown in Figure 1., has been doing the rounds, inspiring fear among some observers that a stock market crash is imminent. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

• 2 Comments
• save this article
• 2
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation.