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Rethinking the core
Roger Montgomery
March 6, 2026
For decades, Australian and global investors seeking income have depended on a traditional “Core” fixed income allocation for their portfolios, mainly consisting of government-related debt and investment-grade corporate bonds. The result is the conventional 60/40 portfolio – a widely accepted blend of equities and fixed income (bonds).
Structural changes in liquidity, regulation, and market dominance, however, are occurring rapidly and may reduce the effectiveness of these old benchmarks. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Is the hype of the robotics sector justified?
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2026
Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I discussed the growing hype around humanoid robots. While many companies promise household robots within a decade, leading roboticist Rodney Brooks believes major technical hurdles remain before they can perform meaningful work in homes or industry.
We explored the limitations of bipedal design, the extraordinary dexterity of the human hand, and the safety challenges robots face when interacting with people. For investors, it is a reminder that technological excitement often runs ahead of reality, and markets can price in adoption long before the technology is ready. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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A robot butler in your home by 2036 is a fantasy
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2026
If you’ve spent any time on social media lately, you’ve seen them: sleek, metallic bipeds performing backflips in China, dancing to Motown, or gingerly stacking the dishwasher or placing a singular box on a shelf. The robotics hype cycle suggests that in four years’ time (2030), a robot will be folding your laundry and helping your nanna out of bed.
Despite billions of dollars invested, however, they remain science experiments confronting daunting technical challenges. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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MEDIA
The Australian – How the AI boom and a liquidity crisis are threatening to upend markets
Roger Montgomery
March 5, 2026
However, as the tide of cheap liquidity recedes, we’re seeing a typical correction as investors retreat from riskier assets.
Investors must now navigate a treacherous confluence of shifting narratives just as global liquidity is structurally changing. The dangers are building.
This article was first published in The Australian on 26 February 2026. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.
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Roger Montgomery
March 4, 2026
April 9, last year, Donald Trump postponed his Liberation Day tariffs, fuelling a stock market rally led by artificial intelligence (AI) optimism. That optimism turned to fear this year as joy towards AI’s productivity enhancements morphed into panic about how many businesses it would destroy.
That panic reached an even higher level of urgency last week, when James van Geelen, a thematic investor and former entrepreneur who founded a healthcare company before moving into investment research on Substack, hypothesised that AI would lay waste to the entire global consumer economy, leaving generations of white-collar workers redundant. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.
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144-year-old mystery exposes an AI bubble
Roger Montgomery
March 4, 2026
While investors look to the next Nvidia earnings call or the latest OpenELM (Open-source Efficient Language Models) release to predict the future of artificial intelligence (AI), Michael Burry – made famous for making billions shorting markets ahead of 2008 subprime crisis – recently turned to an article entitled Thought without Language, The Narrative of a Deaf-Mute, His First Thoughts and Experiences, in the June 19, 1880, edition of the New York Times.
“The case study is of a teacher at the Columbia Institute for the Instruction of the Deaf and Dumb. This particular teacher, Melville Ballard, is also a deaf mute and a graduate of the National Deaf Mute College.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Domino’s Pizza Enterprises: Pivoting to franchisee prosperity
Roger Montgomery
March 3, 2026
The HY26 results for Domino’s Pizza Enterprises (ASX:DMP) mark a “reset” phase for the company, as it moves away from a decades-long reliance on deep discounting and volume growth toward a more sustainable, value-driven model.
While this transition will take time, the underlying focus on franchisee health and cost discipline is laying the groundwork for a leaner, more resilient business, perhaps explaining the nine per cent share price bounce at the time of writing (26 February 2026), following an 11 per cent drop the day before on the day of the result’s release. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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The risk of underspending in retirement
Roger Montgomery
March 3, 2026
I think a lot about how higher-yielding income products, such as the Aura Private Credit Income Fund and the Aura Core Income Fund, might fit in a retiree’s portfolio and how to articulate that.
It’s a challenge to explain, primarily because we don’t know the future. We don’t know how long we’ll live; we don’t know when/if the stock market might crash, and therefore we don’t know how much we can withdraw each year from our retirement savings because we don’t know how much we will spend in retirement, nor how much we’ll actually have left each year.
It leaves many investors paralysed; “I’ll worry about it tomorrow.” Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.
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For years, investors believed and followed a “lower for longer” mantra that pushed capital further out along the risk spectrum. It has flowed into private equity, cryptocurrencies, and high-flying tech.