While most currently consider bubbles a dangerous precondition for a stock market crash, they can also be better navigated by appreciating they’re a necessary step on the road to humanity’s advancement.

As I have noted previously, there’s a myriad of definitions for asset bubbles, but most fall into two camps: those that measure overvaluation and those that observe the behaviours and conditions that typically give rise to it.
This article was first published in The Australian on 20 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my video insight ‘How General Purpose Technology booms end”, last month, I spoke about the five stages of a GPT boom and the inevitable, sometimes violent, way they end. I suggested that while the latest GPT – Artificial Intelligence (AI) – is undoubtedly life-altering and ultimately structural, the commercial path to its adoption is governed by cyclicality and the cost of capital. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As investors, if we’re intellectually honest, we’re bound to be wrong a few times more than we would like. And the longer the investment career, the higher the accumulated mistakes pile up. So how do successful investors survive them and continue to build on their success?

In holiday mode, I was re-reading some vintage Graham and Dodd, and what struck me was how minimal the damage from their mistakes would be, thanks to the safeguards built into their approach. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Goldman Sachs Research represents one of the largest stockbroking firms in the world.  So, it should come as no surprise that the investment bank has recently published its stock market outlook for the next decade, predicting an average annual return of almost eight per cent.

But if you’ve grown accustomed to smooth and steady gains, you may need to recalibrate your expectations, despite Goldman Sachs’ reassurances. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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According to Google, Matt Stoller is a prominent American writer, researcher, and anti-monopoly advocate, known for his work at the American Economic Liberties Project and his popular Substack newsletter, BIG, which focuses on market power, antitrust, and the war against monopolies. He’s a former policy advisor and a key figure in the modern anti-monopoly movement, advocating for breaking up large corporations and promoting competition, drawing support from across the political spectrum. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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This Christmas, perhaps more than any other in recent years, it might be time to spare a thought for Ernest Hemingway’s short story The Capital of the World. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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2025 has been an eventful year, with some strong returns – but what comes next? I joined Sean Aylmer from Fear and Greed for their Summer Series to break down the forces that shaped markets this year. Looking ahead to 2026, I explain why investors should expect higher volatility, limited future gains given today’s stretched valuations, and why rebalancing portfolios into alternative offerings that are uncorrelated to markets should be considered. 

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In my latest article for Nabtrade, I explore why investors are rarely able to identify a bubble until after it has burst, and why the signals today suggest it may be prudent to prepare for a shift in 2026. Diversification and rebalancing is becoming increasingly important as market conditions become more turbulent. 

You can read the full article here: Bubbles create a shadow – time to move out from the shade. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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