I joined Jess Maguire yesterday afternoon on ABC Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in the Australian share market, rising U.S. bond yields and the pressure higher rates can place on asset prices. We also discussed inflation and interest rates in Australia, before looking at the risks of company forecasts in isolation and why the combined growth expectations for the artificial intelligence (AI) sector may be difficult to achieve.

Listen from 1:46:38 on ABC Statewide Drive.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Radio, Technology & Telecommunications.

I joined Andrew Geoghegan on Ausbiz to discuss persistent inflation in the U.S., the impact of rising wages and services costs, and why the Federal Reserve may have limited room to ease rates. We also explored the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout, growing demand for capital and the pressure higher borrowing costs could place on hyperscalers, before discussing how private credit may fit within a higher-inflation environment. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation, TV Appearances.

Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.

If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.

When you hear people talk about U.S. inflation, a popular narrative is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially powerless. The argument goes that today’s sticky price pressures are almost entirely driven by outside supply shocks – things like new tariffs, volatile energy costs, and bottlenecks in tech hardware caused by the massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

After cutting their cash rates in the latter part of 2024 and 2025, the Central Banks of Australia, the U.S., Europe and New Zealand have recently reversed tack. This is coming at a tricky time for many economies with inflationary expectations and cost of living issues putting additional pressure on consumers, and this is often accompanied by relatively high unemployment in the UK (5.0 per cent), Europe (6.4 per cent), Canada (6.4 per cent) and New Zealand (5.6 per cent). Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular.

This week, I am back with Nicola and Di for our series Over The Money Fence.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, we go through the fallout from the federal budget and explain why, despite being sold as a win for young Australians, the changes to negative gearing have actually made it harder for first home buyers to get into the market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Property, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Property, Technology & Telecommunications.

It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.