As I delve a little deeper into the aggregate artificial intelligence (AI) capital expenditure (capex) numbers and the revenue and profits subsequently required to recoup them, one thing stands out: a world of AI forecasts that are universally optimistic.

That’s not usual in any hype-inspired boom, but these numbers are extraordinary. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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CrossBorder Capital’s latest report by founder Michael Howell paints an ominous picture of a maturing global liquidity cycle, raising concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) waning role in providing liquidity (the fuel for market and asset rises) has negative implications for markets and the U.S. economy.

Howell’s analysis concentrates on the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where a 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered alongside hints of further cuts, consistent with Trump’s demands. Yet, he labels this a “hawkish cut,” emphasising the Fed’s tough stance on liquidity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, incoming appointee Stephen Miran, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are reportedly aligned in their push to shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and minimise its market influence. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I joined Paul Turton today on ABC Newcastle to discuss why the market is demonstrating new highs despite the fear and uncertainty surrounding geopolitical events, the rising risk of stagflation, and the growing threat to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s independence.

It appears the persistent rise in the S&P 500 is reflective of the collective excitement and optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). According to sources like Gartner and Deloitte, it is expected that AI global spend will hit the US$1.5 trillion mark in the near future. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Anecdotal evidence. Dismissed as mostly irrelevant, anecdotal evidence becomes useful often only in hindsight. Until then, it’s a novelty, statistically unsound, unreliable, lacking objectivity and unverifiable.

But boy, it’s fun to inquire.

That was then

In the 1920s, the stock market was ‘roaring’, enjoying widespread optimism and even euphoria amid new innovations. On October 15, 1929, after the market had experienced a nine-year rise, the first celebrity Yale economist, Irving Fisher, gave a speech in New York City. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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Last week, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) published a piece commenting on the artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure frenzy. As an investor, one can’t help but be awestruck while also feeling concern and a more than a hint of déjà vu.

According to the WSJ, Ellendale, North Dakota, is a sleepy town of just 1,100 now playing host to a half-built AI data centre that’s will be larger than 10 Home Depots – the U.S. equivalent of a large format Bunnings Warehouse here in Australia. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Since inflation peaked at 9.1 per cent in mid-2022, consumer prices have cooled dramatically, job growth has dwindled from nearly 4 per cent annually to a meagre 0.9 per cent, nominal gross domestic product (GDP) expansion has halved from 10 per cent to 4.6 per cent, and commodity prices have dropped 15 per cent. Despite all of this, bond yields have stubbornly refused to ease. Mainly hovering between 4 per cent and 5 per cent – and sitting at around 4 per cent today – bullish investors argue these yields are oddly, and unjustifiably, detached from the underlying economic slowdown. Real activity has tapered and consumer price index (CPI) inflation has plummeted to 2.9 per cent. So why haven’t yields collapsed? Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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If you were listening carefully during reporting season, you might have noticed a growing buzz around small-cap stocks, both here in Australia and in the United States.

More investors are now seeing small caps as a hidden gem. Small caps seem undervalued, overlooked, and are showing signs of a strong recovery. 

If you don’t already have an allocation to small caps in your portfolio, now could be the right time to take a closer look. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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I recently read an interesting post on Substack about the state of the market. However, there was one paragraph whose significance might have been missed, even by those who subscribe to the author’s musings.  

Here’s the paragraph in question, followed by what I hope will prove a useful explanation.

The paragraph was titled “No Equity Risk Premium.”

“Meanwhile the macro-middle scenario that has prevailed in 2025 has helped stocks push higher, and with still elevated bond yields that has squeezed the forward-looking “prospective equity risk premium” deeper into the negatives. That may not matter this week, this month, or even this quarter, but it does tell us the forward looking risk vs return set points to an entirely different regime than what we’ve become accustomed to.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Investing Education.

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