Well, if you didn’t know it already, Anthropic, the startup behind the Claude chatbot ecosystem, filed a Form S-1 with the Securities and Exchange Commission this week, officially launching what may be the most-watched initial public offering (IPO) in history. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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Until now, Wall Street has been treating generative artificial intelligence (AI) as a license to justify virtually any valuation, no matter how lofty.

Aggressive spending today to dominate the architecture of tomorrow’s economy has led equity and bond investors to fall over themselves to avoid missing the next transformation of humanity.

However, over the last 24 hours, the market’s patience seems to have cracked. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary.

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The artificial intelligence (AI) boom, or bubble, has captured so much investor attention that many have forgotten how many bubbles we’ve seen in the last decade.

And whether it was sudden liquidity shifts, low interest rates, technological enthusiasm, or structural market changes, these factors consistently combined to feed speculation and inflate asset markets.

When cheap capital or social euphoria flows faster than underlying fundamental earnings, valuations detach from reality. Most importantly, regardless of what drives the enthusiasm, whether it’s decentralised digital assets or meme stocks, each cycle saw valuations peak, and markets eventually corrected. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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In my latest article for The Australian, I explore why government bonds are becoming increasingly attractive after more than a decade of low yields and market volatility. I examine the forces driving U.S. Treasury yields, including economic growth, interest rate expectations and demand for safe assets, and explain why a slowing economy could create opportunities for bond investors through both income and potential capital gains, while presenting challenges for equity markets.

Download the article here: Bonds were down and out – now they could beat stocks Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market commentary.

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On Ausbiz, I discussed the mounting pressures facing Australian retailers, using David Jones’ financial difficulties as a reflection of broader challenges across the sector. We also explored the potential flow-on effects for Australian brands, employment and shopping centres, as rising costs and weaker consumer spending continue to weigh on retailers.

You can watch the episode here: David Jones’ woes and the domino effect. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is stuck between a rock and a hard place. Following four cash rate increases commencing in February 2026, it looks likely that Melbourne Cup Day will see the fifth increase in nine months, potentially taking the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest rate since 2008. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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Ed Yardeni just published his latest research note titled “Is AI useless?”

Now, to be fair, questioning whether trillion-dollar hyperscalers, NVIDIA and Frontier Labs, are collectively making an AI-powered mistake is clearly motivated by a little attention-seeking, but AI leaders are facing real challenges. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Elon Musk issued a warning over the weekend about the state of artificial intelligence (AI) financing.

According to the SpaceX and Tesla founder, the debt markets have seized up for pure-play AI data centre operators, and more than 200 neocloud companies face severe consolidation or total collapse. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.

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