Yikes! Did the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) just propose a material reduction in its balance sheet?

After the war is over, investors will revert to concentrating on earnings and other thematics again, and a recent Fed research paper may give investors something to worry about. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In late March 2026, the ANZ Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence Index hit the lowest level since the survey began in the early 1970s. 

Last week (5 April 2026), it rallied to the second worst week on record, as motorists received a $0.26 per litre reduction in the fuel excise.  And this week, I’m confident it will rally further on the back of the provisional ceasefire between the USA and Iran and the announcement of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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In my article for Firstlinks, I explore the uneasy disconnect between human tragedy and market resilience. While war brings immeasurable suffering, history shows that equity markets often respond with surprising steadiness. From brief sell-offs ahead of conflict to rapid recoveries during it, markets seem to march on, focused on profits even as headlines scream chaos. With the current Middle East conflict unfolding, investors are once again asking: will history repeat itself, or is this time different?

You can read the article here: Firstlinks – War can’t be good, can it?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.

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The market has surged, jumping 2.6 per cent in a single day on news of a ceasefire in the Middle East. After weeks of volatility, the key question now is whether this marks the beginning of a sustained recovery – or just another short-lived rally.

I joined Sean Aylmer to discuss what’s really driving the rebound. While the rally appears genuine, the underlying risks haven’t disappeared. In uncertain times like these, I also find myself returning to the timeless principles of long-term investing and discipline that have guided some of the world’s most successful investors.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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What’s war good for? With apologies to Motown songwriters Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong, absolutely nothing from humanity’s point of view. While the human cost of conflict – measured in lives lost, families displaced, and immense suffering – is profound and undeniable, the historical relationship between geopolitical chaos and long-term market valuations is remarkably detached, perhaps because markets grind on, focused on profits and with what appears to be indifference to the tragedies that dominate the headlines. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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The upcoming listing of Firmus on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) is being pitched as a generational opportunity to capitalise on the artificial intelligence boom, yet a closer examination of the company’s artificial intelligence (AI) Factory model reveals a series of architectural and financial cracks that prospective investors should scrutinise. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings to discuss the current market outlook, noting that while geopolitical tensions may keep markets cautious in the near term, any resolution could trigger a short-lived rebound before investors refocus on deeper structural risks, including rising U.S. debt, higher bond yields as Chinese demand fades, and the longer-term economic disruption from artificial intelligence (AI), particularly its impact on employment and growth.

Listen from 36:46 – ABC Newcastle Mornings Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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On ABC Statewide Drive, I discussed why geopolitical shocks have historically caused short-term market volatility rather than lasting weakness, with many conflicts followed by relatively swift recoveries and resilient equity returns. I also noted that while the current Middle East conflict is unlikely to become a world war, investors still need to watch the broader risks beyond the headlines, including elevated valuations, persistent inflation, higher oil prices, rising U.S. debt and the unpredictability of Donald Trump, all of which could make 2026 a more volatile and consolidating year for markets.

Tune into the segment from 1:44:38 here: ABC Statewide Drive – conflict and markets

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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