In this week’s video insight I ask the question has inflation peaked, and is this leading optimism in the stock market? Stocks rallied sharply last week based on the better-than-expected consumer inflation (CPI) data. Consequently the U.S. Central Bank and the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep increasing interest rates this year, but then cut them next year thanks to a recession. Are these expectations reasonable? I look at some charts to answer this in the video. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Video Insights.

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There’s a lot going on in the world right now with sufficient power to dramatically improve or destroy investment returns. Inflation, recession, a credit crunch, diminishing Central Bank liquidity and escalating geopolitical tensions all have the potential to alter sentiment in a second and change the fortunes for many. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education.

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The second quarter of 2022 echoed themes that started earlier this year. High inflation, rising interest rates, and a general “riskoff” mentality have created some difficulty for our investing style in the Polen Capital Global Small and Mid Cap Fund. Continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.

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Gary Rollo joined Chris Judd’s Talk Ya Book to discuss one of his favourite value picks at the moment, telecom software business Symbio Holdings (ASX:SYM). Symbio is profitable, growing, generates cash flows and is also on 9 times EBITDA which for an industrial stock is cheaper than the market.

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by Gary Rollo Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Stocks We Like.

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The conditions during the second quarter of the year have largely been a continuation of what we experienced during the first quarter, with a long list of exogenous factors continuing to weigh on the market, including persistent inflation, tightening monetary policy, and ongoing supply chain issues. Continue…

by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital.

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Domestic results season is about to ramp up and investors like us will be focusing, in particular, on the outlook statements. You might recall there was a lot of optimism at the time of the half yearly results in February. Back then, a combination of reopening, rebuilding and expectations of a continuation of accommodative monetary policy was met abruptly, in late February, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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The RBA raised rates for the fourth consecutive meeting with a view to combat the soaring rate of inflation. They are not shying away from introducing additional rate rises moving forward. As noted last week, the headline inflation for the July quarter came in at 6.1 per cent, well above the 2–3 per cent target range. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.

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Back in May, Montgomery CEO, David Buckland, said he saw New Zealand as Australia’s ‘canary in the coal mine’. As the Kiwis had raised rates earlier and more frequently than our Reserve Bank, their experience would be a good pointer to what we could expect. If he’s right, we now have the answer: big declines in consumer and business confidence, and falling property prices. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.

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