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New Zealand; The canary in the coal mine
David Buckland
May 16, 2022
I have been impressed by the relative proactive leadership of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in commencing their official cash rate tightening cycle well ahead of most other countries. Commencing on 6 October 2021 (as well as 24 November 2021, 23 February 2022, and 13 April 2022), the RBNZ have increased their cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 1.50 per cent on four separate occasions. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics.
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Why every setback is accompanied by a different narrative
Roger Montgomery
May 16, 2022
In this week’s video insight Roger discusses why setbacks are a necessary part of investing, especially for those keen to realise better returns. Remembering that the lower the price you pay, the higher your returns, it makes sense that we should welcome market pullbacks. Eventually, there will be an end to rising interest rates and eventually, inflation will peak. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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What Toyota’s update tells us about supply chain disruptions
Roger Montgomery
May 12, 2022
We’ve all heard stories about new-car buyers waiting months for some in-demand models, not to mention the incredible spike in used-car prices. The same factors are behind both issues: supply chain disruptions that are plaguing most carmakers and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). Recent reports by Toyota and Polaris paint a picture of these disruptions, and how long we can expect them to play out. Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.
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Polen Capital Emerging Markets Q12022 Market Commentary
Polen Capital
May 11, 2022
In this video Damian Bird highlights portfolio movements during the March quarter. A new position was added, TSMC, Taiwan’s leading semiconductor foundry. For more than 20 years, the company has delivered returns on its internally invested capital of approximately 20 per cent well in excess of its cost of capital. Despite the heightened levels of volatility we are currently seeing in the markets, we continue to expect our companies to report robust earnings growth as they move through 2022. Continue…
by Polen Capital Posted in Polen Capital, Video Insights.
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Have bad calls eroded the credibility of Central Banks?
Roger Montgomery
May 11, 2022
Just over a year ago, the US Federal Reserve said inflation was ‘transitory’. Six months later, it said it would not need to raise interest rates above zero. Yet, just last week at its May meeting, the Fed announced it would need to raise rates 0.50 per cent in the face of soaring and persistent inflation. Is it any wonder many people feel the Fed is out of touch, and have lost faith in its policies and prognostications? Continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Australia’s residential property market to soften
David Buckland
May 10, 2022
It never ceases to amaze me that when a sector that has enjoyed a roaring bull market starts to turn the ‘experts’ try to out-do one another in giving pessimistic forecasts. And that is now happening with Australia’s residential property market, where the general consensus is that prices could soon drop by 15 to 25 per cent due to rising interest rates. Continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Why Goodman Group remains sanguine about looming headwinds
Joseph Kim
May 10, 2022
The share price of Goodman Group (ASX: GMG) has plunged around 27 per cent since the start of the year as some investors began to price in headwinds for the commercial and industrial property business. Nick Vrondas, Group CFO, addressed these issues at the recent Macquarie Group investment conference, and explained why he is confident that growth remains on track. Continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Property, Stocks We Like.
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Aura, Montgomery ink distribution deal
Roger Montgomery
May 10, 2022
Montgomery Investment Management will now distribute the Aura High Yield SME Fund on behalf of Aura Funds Management. The fund, which will be offered to wholesale investors, is a diversified portfolio of SME loans, 36% of which are in the agricultural sector. The weighted average loan is just shy of $145,000 with an average duration of four months. Read Jamie Williamson’s article here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet.
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