Property
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Keeping Tabs on Property
Roger Montgomery
March 13, 2019
Home loan declines accelerated in January, falling 2.1 per cent in the month and 20.6 per cent compared to January 2018. This is the worst year-on-year fall since the GFC and loans are now down almost 25 per cent from their peak. How does this impact the mortgage system growth for the banks? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Poor builder results signal more property pain ahead
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2019
Property investors expecting a recovery in prices will have to wait a bit longer. Because, right now, a perfect storm is engulfing the sector, leading to the worst property falls in four decades. Recent results from our leading builders are further confirmation that the trend is still down. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.
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House prices in Box Hill down 41%
Roger Montgomery
February 15, 2019
As you would well know, we have been bearish property for more than two years, warning those who feared missing out, to be extra cautious about borrowing to buy at the peak. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Housing credit is tight – and could get even tighter
Andreas Lundberg
January 23, 2019
The latest credit data paints a gloomy picture for the housing market. Over the past year or so, we’ve seen new finance commitments trend down for owner occupiers and investors, and a very significant increase in loan rejections. Credit could get even tighter once the Royal Commission into financial services hands down its recommendations. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Falling house prices mean tough times for retailers
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2018
Over the last two years, I’ve been warning that the housing price and residential construction boom would end, leaving a bit of a mess. The big question now is not whether house prices will fall further. It is which other sectors will be impacted, and to what extent? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property.
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Falling property market could squeeze State budgets
Andreas Lundberg
November 27, 2018
While Australia’s declining housing market is good news for first-time home buyers, it’s bad news for the economy. One big concern is what’s called the reverse wealth effect. Another is the adverse impact that a falling market could have on state budgets which could in turn have an impact on infrastructure spending. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property.
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Where to next for residential property?
Tim Kelley
October 10, 2018
If you take an interest in the Australian residential property market (and who among us doesn’t?), the latest release from CoreLogic contains some interesting data points. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Just how far will property prices fall?
Roger Montgomery
October 9, 2018
For the last two years, we were feeling rather lonely suggesting that the property boom would end abruptly. Today, property prices are falling, and we are no longer a lone voice. The question is: how much further will they fall? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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How well do you know your mortgage?
Andreas Lundberg
September 19, 2018
The very well-respected bank team at UBS published a very interesting piece of research today that we believe is well worth taking a look at. The team performs an annual survey of Australians who have taken out a mortgage during the previous 12 months. The survey covers 1008 individuals and is spread both geographically and in loan size, so the findings are statistically significant for the overall population. They have published quite a few different reports looking at the data from different angles, but today’s version is very interesting for the insights it gives into the financial literacy of Australians. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Property.
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Retailers could soon feel the heat from a cooling property market
Roger Montgomery
August 28, 2018
Recent reporting season results tell a story of falling property prices and rising indebtedness. This is starting to hurt property speculators, lenders and builders, and could soon impact many retailers due to the negative ‘wealth effect’ on consumer sentiment. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.
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