Property
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Keep an eye on firms exposed to residential building
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2019
With the market on a tear, bargains are hard to come by. But patient investors might soon find some joy in businesses exposed to the residential construction sector – potentially firms like Bingo and Nick Scali – whose share prices could come off as construction activity softens. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property.
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Shoddy building practices are a ticking time bomb that won’t go away
David Buckland
July 29, 2019
Australia’s recent residential building boom saw the rapid erection of hundreds of high-rise apartment blocks, and, for a while, everyone seemed to be making money. But now the cost of poor building standards is coming back to bite many players in the industry. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Is there more weakness ahead for discretionary retailers?
Roger Montgomery
July 2, 2019
Since we alerted investors some two years ago that an oversupply of property would ultimately result in a collapse of activity in residential construction, additional nails have been hammered into the fortunes for companies exposed to housing and retailing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property.
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How a slowing listings environment impacts Domain and REA Group
Joseph Kim
May 13, 2019
The topic of the property market is a favourite obsession for many Australians given the significant percentage of household wealth the asset class represents for most Australians. There is plenty of media and other commentary discussing property market conditions on any given day – including from other contributors to the blog – so I won’t delve into where I think prices will go in the future. However, a slowing property market does have implications for listing volumes. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property.
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It’s Official: Residential Construction is Crashing before our Eyes
Roger Montgomery
May 9, 2019
We’ve known for some time that the sharp decline in building approvals would lead to an equally sharp decline in construction activity. It has been our view that because building approvals have already fallen from 280,000 dwellings to 170,000 dwellings, a consequent decline in building activity would start to be seen about now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Keeping Tabs on Property
Roger Montgomery
March 13, 2019
Home loan declines accelerated in January, falling 2.1 per cent in the month and 20.6 per cent compared to January 2018. This is the worst year-on-year fall since the GFC and loans are now down almost 25 per cent from their peak. How does this impact the mortgage system growth for the banks? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Property.
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Poor builder results signal more property pain ahead
Roger Montgomery
February 19, 2019
Property investors expecting a recovery in prices will have to wait a bit longer. Because, right now, a perfect storm is engulfing the sector, leading to the worst property falls in four decades. Recent results from our leading builders are further confirmation that the trend is still down. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.
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House prices in Box Hill down 41%
Roger Montgomery
February 15, 2019
As you would well know, we have been bearish property for more than two years, warning those who feared missing out, to be extra cautious about borrowing to buy at the peak. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Housing credit is tight – and could get even tighter
Andreas Lundberg
January 23, 2019
The latest credit data paints a gloomy picture for the housing market. Over the past year or so, we’ve seen new finance commitments trend down for owner occupiers and investors, and a very significant increase in loan rejections. Credit could get even tighter once the Royal Commission into financial services hands down its recommendations. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Falling house prices mean tough times for retailers
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2018
Over the last two years, I’ve been warning that the housing price and residential construction boom would end, leaving a bit of a mess. The big question now is not whether house prices will fall further. It is which other sectors will be impacted, and to what extent? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property.