Property
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Our latest channel checks suggest a housing construction bounce
Roger Montgomery
November 8, 2019
What a difference a week makes. Only days ago we were prosecuting the argument that residential construction activity would continue to worsen. This was based on significant falls in land sales and building approvals, with building approvals being a leading indicator for construction activity, and land sales being a leading indicator for building approvals. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Three companies exposed to the housing slump
Roger Montgomery
October 28, 2019
Between 2012 and 2016, mortgage lending standards were relaxed fuelling a domestic property investing boom. Together with a surge in offshore buying interest, a property and construction boom led to oversupply and frequent warnings from your author. The oversupply is now hitting the property market at the same time that bank lending standards have been tightened, property prices are falling, quality has been found wanting and building approvals have plunged. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property.
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Australian housing is at an inflection point
Roger Montgomery
September 20, 2019
Despite recent data showing home prices have stopped falling and auction clearance rates are strong, I believe these positive signs are no match for the negative shocks that could soon hit the residential construction sector. The upside is that the any stock market volatility could serve up some tasty investment opportunities among residential building developers and their suppliers. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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The government is trying to keep apartment buyers in the dark
Andreas Lundberg
September 19, 2019
Not only has the NSW Government made decisions that have led to the construction of many defective apartment buildings, it has now warned councils to not make the list of affected buildings public. You have to ask yourself: is hiding valuable information from would-be buyers a good way to govern? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Property.
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Mortgage credit growth bounces back
Stuart Jackson
September 18, 2019
Last month, REA Group chief executive Owen Wilson claimed that “the buyers are definitely back”. And recent data seem to back him up. House prices are rebounding, auction clearance rates are up, and mortgage credit growth has turned a corner. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Companies, Property.
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Keep an eye on firms exposed to residential building
Roger Montgomery
August 6, 2019
With the market on a tear, bargains are hard to come by. But patient investors might soon find some joy in businesses exposed to the residential construction sector – potentially firms like Bingo and Nick Scali – whose share prices could come off as construction activity softens. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property.
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Shoddy building practices are a ticking time bomb that won’t go away
David Buckland
July 29, 2019
Australia’s recent residential building boom saw the rapid erection of hundreds of high-rise apartment blocks, and, for a while, everyone seemed to be making money. But now the cost of poor building standards is coming back to bite many players in the industry. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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Is there more weakness ahead for discretionary retailers?
Roger Montgomery
July 2, 2019
Since we alerted investors some two years ago that an oversupply of property would ultimately result in a collapse of activity in residential construction, additional nails have been hammered into the fortunes for companies exposed to housing and retailing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Property.
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How a slowing listings environment impacts Domain and REA Group
Joseph Kim
May 13, 2019
The topic of the property market is a favourite obsession for many Australians given the significant percentage of household wealth the asset class represents for most Australians. There is plenty of media and other commentary discussing property market conditions on any given day – including from other contributors to the blog – so I won’t delve into where I think prices will go in the future. However, a slowing property market does have implications for listing volumes. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Property.
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It’s Official: Residential Construction is Crashing before our Eyes
Roger Montgomery
May 9, 2019
We’ve known for some time that the sharp decline in building approvals would lead to an equally sharp decline in construction activity. It has been our view that because building approvals have already fallen from 280,000 dwellings to 170,000 dwellings, a consequent decline in building activity would start to be seen about now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property.
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