Market Valuation
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What really propelled the Aussie market in 2019?
Andreas Lundberg
January 20, 2020
Over the past 12 months, the soaring Australian share market has made most local investors feel pretty smart. However, for most part, it was falling interest rates, rather than rising company earnings, that kept the rally going. The question now is: how much longer can this bull market go? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary, Market Valuation.
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Six reasons to be wary right now
David Buckland
December 11, 2017
This year we’ve seen the most synchronized expansion of global economic activity since the GFC. It’s certainly helped propel share markets. But with little reaction from the bond market, the goldilocks scenario – not too hot, not too cold – is being priced for perpetuity. Is this realistic? I don’t think so. I can think of six reasons to be wary right now. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market Valuation.
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Cash’s hidden value: it’s an option over every asset class
Roger Montgomery
June 1, 2016
What’s going on … is there nothing to discuss? We recently held our shortest investment committee meeting. I timed it. It went for 22 minutes. What gives? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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Market valuation
Roger Montgomery
May 4, 2016
We aren’t fond of correlation analysis and curve fitting as a basis for investing so you should immediately be careful about what you conclude from the following insight. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Investors fear unknown as central banks lack firepower
Roger Montgomery
April 1, 2016
Since the global financial crisis, there have been over 600 interest rate cuts around the world and, according to one investment bank, more than $US12 trillion of bond purchases. Yet economic growth has not been stimulated enough to see anything resembling an economic recovery. What does it all mean?
You can read all of the team’s press articles through browsing our media library, view more articles here.by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Spotting value in an uncertain climate
Roger Montgomery
January 27, 2016
We aren’t in the business of forecasting and it has no place in our investment process which last year delivered investors in The Montgomery Fund returns of more than 19 per cent against the stock market returns of just 2.8 per cent inclusive of dividends. At the beginning of 2015 we thought there wasn’t a lot of value around and lower returns should be expected. Even though we were right about the market’s aggregate return, it didn’t prevent the generation of attractive returns for investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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Chasing dividends often overlooks growth
Roger Montgomery
December 7, 2015
We have previously written about the bubble in stocks (and inevitably property) inflated by the baby boomer’s desperate search for yield. We described the pursuit of yield as a fad. So, while we were not surprised to watch investors rushing into higher yielding banks and Telstra, we were shocked to hear of investors buying BHP for its ‘progressive’ dividend. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market Valuation.
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Woolies Blows It!
Roger Montgomery
October 29, 2015
We have warned many investors here and in the media about the ultimate impact on Woolworths from the increasingly successful threat of hard discounters like Aldi… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Rollercoaster, but reasonable longer-term
Russell Muldoon
October 8, 2015
The one-year forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the S&P/ASX 200 Index has been on a rollercoaster recently. We would like to try to put a framework around the market movements to more-broadly understand the thinking around the volatility. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Branding: A debate; is it really a competitive advantage?
Scott Shuttleworth
September 14, 2015
Let’s define the term ‘competitive advantage’, what does it mean? There’s unfortunately many definitions, confusing a vital tenant of investment theory. Bruce Greenwald of Columbia University defines it as “being able to do what rivals cannot.” We can extend on this in such a way to suggest that having a competitive advantage will enable a firm to earn abnormally high returns.
Interestingly, competitive advantages when defined in this light, can both be thought of as the same as barriers to entry. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market Valuation.
