Market commentary
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The disruption with forever consequences
Roger Montgomery
August 11, 2017
By now, we’re all well versed on the subject of Amazon disrupting retail, Aldi disrupting supermarkets and fintechs disrupting banking (admittedly to a significantly lesser extent). However, the most significant disruption is occurring right under our noses without us really noticing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Time for caution as the Dow hits 22,000
David Buckland
August 10, 2017
In just five years, spurred on by emergency low interest rates, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has raced from around 13,000 to 22,000 points. Little wonder some market analysts are saying US stocks are now in ‘nose-bleed’ territory. And this is borne out by key valuation indicators. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Which companies could disappoint the market?
Roger Montgomery
July 31, 2017
As we’re on the cusp of reporting season, it’s a good time to look at the companies and market sectors that may soon be under pressure – in particular, those that could be affected by the record levels of debt held by Australian households. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What will be of FY2018?
Roger Montgomery
July 25, 2017
With the 2018 financial year underway, it’s worth examining the forces that could determine whether the Australian stock market repeats its circa 13% return of 2017. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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A random walk, a pattern in the making or businesses as usual?
Scott Phillips
July 21, 2017
As we pass through another financial year we can stop, record the data and reflect on what has transpired to try make sense of it. Reflecting on this financial year just past, it may be helpful to look at the returns of the major asset classes over this year and then for the last 20. Morningstar produce a neat checker board visual (Chart 1) for each of the major asset classes that Australian investors typically invest in. The glaringly obvious admission here is direct residential property but let’s not let that stop us. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.
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Watch out for stock valuations when QE ends
Stuart Jackson
July 20, 2017
Central banks could soon end their bond buying activities, thereby unwinding quantitative easing. Should this occur, real interest rates would again be driven by the normal forces of supply and demand. And this could affect stock valuations. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Financial Services, Market commentary.
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Falling purchasing power could hit retail spending
Andreas Lundberg
July 14, 2017
In June, Australia took the record for the longest run of uninterrupted growth in the developed world. In the same week, it was reported that the share of Australian GDP going into workers’ pockets hit a record low. It’s therefore timely to look at the difference between total GDP and GDP per capita, and the outlook for retail spending and consumer-driven businesses. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Identifying rising stars
Stuart Jackson
July 13, 2017
At Montgomery, we focus our efforts on identifying high quality companies with bright prospects. When combined with a disciplined and patient approach on buying at a discount to fair value, we believe that in the long term, these companies provide an attractive combination of stronger returns with lower than average risk. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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Farewell Fiscal 2017, Hello Fiscal 2018
David Buckland
July 3, 2017
As fiscal 2017 draws to a close, let’s take a look at the year that was. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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The higher the price you pay, the lower your returns
Roger Montgomery
July 3, 2017
The higher the price you pay, the lower your returns. This is a fundamental truth of investing, a law, like gravity, and an impost that cannot be escaped. And yet it is always the case that when future returns are the least attractive, enthusiasm for assets is highest. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
