Market commentary
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Hold ‘em or fold ‘em? The 2 choices facing investors today
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2017
Right now, investors are facing two options: invest in the market’s momentum, while acknowledging that low returns are likely; or step aside, given the risk of low returns and higher volatility. Of late, we’ve chosen the latter option, as we are convinced it is the rational approach. But many investors seem to disagree. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Active versus passive when prices are extremely stretched
Roger Montgomery
November 3, 2017
There’s a pithy marketing one-liner that has almost single-handedly produced a multi-billion dollar index-fund and ETF industry. It goes something like this; ‘Most active fund managers underperform the index.’ continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Why we’re happy to swim against the ‘new paradigm’
Roger Montgomery
October 23, 2017
You may have noticed there’s a new paradigm being discussed in investment circles – that inflation and interest rates may never rise again. This paradigm has been accompanied by a wave of irrational exuberance, with prices of various assets breaking records by the day. At Montgomery, we are concerned this could all end in tears so, for now, we will swim against the tide. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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With records being smashed, should you call time on this bull market?
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2017
Anyone with more than 10 years’ investing experience has seen this before – stocks going up with nary a hint of concern nor any willingness to fall. And look around – it’s not just stocks. A whole range of luxury goods are hitting record prices. Property, watches, wine, cars, art, jewellery. Is it time to be cautious? You bet. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Robert Shiller warns us to prepare for a bear market
Roger Montgomery
October 6, 2017
We make no claim to be accurate forecasters of market booms and crashes. That’s because, in the very long run, successful value investing does not require an ability to predict markets or economies. But when respected people like Nobel Laureate economist, Professor Robert J. Shiller, put pen to paper about a looming bear market, we find it pays to listen up. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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How changes in the AUD affect global-facing businesses
Stuart Jackson
October 5, 2017
The gyrations of the Aussie dollar are a constant focus of media attention. And well they might be. Because, apart from reflecting our national economic health, the strength of the Aussie dollar relative to other currencies has a big impact on exporters, and on businesses that generate earnings overseas. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Foreign Currency, Market commentary.
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Red flags are everywhere, making us anxious about this market
Roger Montgomery
September 28, 2017
According to the Bank of International Settlements, there are now more margin loans supporting buying in the US stock market than during the tech boom of 1999/2000. And those loans are chasing an ever-narrowing band of tech stocks on the back of a ‘fear of missing out’. This is just one of the many red flags making us nervous right now. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why investing in new tech businesses can be a gamble
Roger Montgomery
September 14, 2017
When you look at the success of tech titans like Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook, it’s easy to think there’s only lots of money to be made investing in new technology companies – particularly those associated with the ‘creative destruction’ of incumbent businesses. But the truth about who wins from new technology can be eye opening. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Why investing fads can end in tears
Roger Montgomery
September 11, 2017
Back in the 1960s, a group of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange called the Nifty Fifty grabbed the attention and dreams of a generation of savvy investors. As we know, investing in the Nifty Fifty ended badly for many of them, and showed the downside of investing fads.
continue…by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why this bull market may have further to run
Roger Montgomery
September 4, 2017
David Tepper, the billionaire hedge fund manager and founder and president of Appaloosa Management, doesn’t share the bearish views of his hedge fund peers such as Gundlach, Dalio and Howard Marks. In fact, he is quite certain that this market has further to run. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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