Market commentary
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Are we there yet?
Roger Montgomery
April 7, 2020
That’s the question on many investors’ minds these days. And it’s certainly one that our team is starting to ponder as the prices of many high quality businesses become more reasonable. However, before we start investing significant amounts of our clients’ capital, there are four things we want to see. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Where to next?
Roger Montgomery
April 3, 2020
To describe recent market volatility as high is to understate the facts. Since the peak on February 19, the US market has registered the most rapid sell-off ever, its biggest three-day gain since the 1930s, the biggest one-day percentage gain since 1933 and the second ever largest one-day fall. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is it time to get back in?
Roger Montgomery
April 2, 2020
With so many companies now trading at cut-price valuations, many of our readers are asking whether it’s time to start buying again. Over the past six weeks many companies are down. And some of them are very high quality indeed. A new reality exists, and one with the same opportunities as 1987. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – An update on the US
Gary Rollo
April 2, 2020
With the data and markets changing so quickly, we thought it best to simply give you the data and our interpretation in all its raw glory. We checked the US data this morning and the NY data is tracking worse than bad. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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How will COVID-19 impact society in the long run?
Andreas Lundberg
April 2, 2020
As the Coronavirus crisis unfolds, social commentators are making predictions for how the world will change once the pandemic ends. I’m sure you’re also making your own predictions – and we’d really like to hear them. What broad, long-lasting trends do you think we’re about to see? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Your questions: Fund Positioning
Dean Curnow
April 1, 2020
In a month characterised by pandemics and corrections, it has been fair to say the Montgomery team has been busy on all fronts. Our ongoing commitment to keeping our investors as informed saw us host webinars on both the domestic and global front. At each presentations, our investors were welcomed to ask questions directly of the Montgomery team. I have shared a number of the common questions here. continue…
by Dean Curnow Posted in Market commentary.
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Your questions: Markets and Macroeconomics
Roger Montgomery
March 31, 2020
We recently ran a webinar explaining how we had positioned our domestic funds as markets were peaking in February and ahead of the Coronavirus pandemic. Attendees were shown our testing data analysis, as well as our suggested framework for navigating the market meltdown. At the conclusion of the webinar, we invited attendees to submit their questions only some of which we were able to answer in the time allotted to us. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Analysing US COVID-19 developments – NY tracking 6x worse than Italy
Gary Rollo
March 30, 2020
Investors are looking at the US COVID-19 data as a guide for when markets may settle down. Our view is that it’s going to be tough for markets to find a bottom until it becomes clear that the US understands the scale of its COVID-19 problem and is taking appropriate steps to mitigate. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Latest Update
Gary Rollo
March 27, 2020
Italy’s major national shutdown and lockdown isolation measures taken on 9 March and March 11, some 14-16 days ago, may now be showing up as lower case numbers. The timeline appears to fit the proposed initial two week quarantine period suggested for potential COVID-19 cases. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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