Market commentary
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Why it’s so hard to pick the market direction right now
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2020
In a recent interview, Peter Switzer asked me if I was a bull or a bear. It’s a simple question, but one that requires a nuanced response. Because these are complex and unprecedented times for investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Are debt deferrals a ticking time bomb for the economy?
Andreas Lundberg
June 16, 2020
Last week, the Australian Banking Association (ABA) updated the market on the number of mortgages and business loans deferred due to impacts from the COVID-19 crisis. In all, loans totalling $234 billion are not being repaid. The question is: what proportion of these borrowers will be able to resume repaying the banks once the other COVID-19 stimulus measures end? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Why the market’s bullish sentiment could turn on a dime
Roger Montgomery
June 15, 2020
Global stock markets have catapulted in anticipation of a sharp economic recovery. The trouble is, no one knows how soon, or how strong, the recovery will be. My concern is that negative data could easily swing market sentiment from optimism back to pessimism. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is the economy on the ropes, or getting back on its feet?
Roger Montgomery
June 13, 2020
Recent economic surveys paint a grim picture of business conditions, job ads and home lending. The question is: can the economy bounce back from the pummeling it took at the hands of the COVID-19 lockdown? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why I’m being fearful during this market euphoria
Roger Montgomery
June 12, 2020
Warren Buffett famously said that, to be a successful investor, you should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. I think his advice is especially relevant in today’s ‘risk on’ environment, in which the fear of missing out is usurping the fear of loss. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why this market bounce has got me so perplexed
Roger Montgomery
June 11, 2020
The 11-year bull market in global equities, which COVID-19 finally brought to an end, came to be derided as the most unloved bull market in history. So, what to make of the strong, and similarly disparaged, bounce since March? Many investors look to be pricing in better times ahead, but media headlines are telling a different story. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Crisis? What crisis? The market says it’s time to buy
Roger Montgomery
June 10, 2020
If you’re scratching your head over the market’s strong rebound since March, then join the club. Because there’s still a large cohort of economists and analysts who continue to see tough times ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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How should you think about the prospects for a vaccine?
Tim Kelley
June 9, 2020
Gauging the possible extent and duration of the economic downturn resulting from the COVID-19 crisis is a challenging exercise with many unknowns. However, one thing is reasonably clear: in the event that a safe and effective vaccine becomes widely available, the threat posed by the virus will be much diminished and the path to recovery made far smoother. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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Beware trojan horses – The impassioned speech of Anastasia Lin
Roger Montgomery
June 5, 2020
It is widely acknowledged that China knew about the Coronavirus outbreak in late 2019 but did not report the outbreak until the virus appeared in Taiwan. And while the tectonic economic and personal cost remains to be counted, what we already conclude is that our attitude to China and its business interests on our shores must change. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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A bull at a gate…
Roger Montgomery
June 3, 2020
While US consumer spending, the US economy’s fundamental driver, fell 13.6 per cent in April, and recorded the steepest decline since 1959, the data is now a month old. More recently, the US Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Index for May rose to 43.1 from an 11-year low of 41.5 in April, suggesting the economy is rising up off the matt after being KO’d. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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