Market commentary
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Baby got back
Roger Montgomery
May 25, 2020
I recently discussed the fantasy world that some seem to be living in believing that a recovery will be easy and quick rather than slow and halting. We are in a recession and recessions rarely last six months, and finally, employment prospects in hospitality, retail and construction have deteriorated to such an extent that there will be fewer jobs for people to come back to when their jobseeker payments return to ‘normal’ and Jobkeeper payments cease later this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Rainbows, Unicorns, V-Shaped recoveries and other fantasies
Roger Montgomery
May 22, 2020
There are a bunch of reasons to expect this recovery to be longer and more painful than the market’s V-shaped expectations. Of course, within such an environment there will be businesses that do well, and we reckon we own a whole bunch of them in The Montgomery Fund and the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is the early release of superannuation a good idea?
Andreas Lundberg
May 20, 2020
One of the actions announced by the government to stimulate the economy as a response to the current crisis is that individuals can apply for an early release of superannuation savings. The rules are that an individual can apply to withdraw $10,000 before the 30 June and another $10,000 between the beginning of July and the end of September. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Old Habits don’t die hard, they don’t die
Roger Montgomery
May 14, 2020
During the depths of the market’s reaction to the Coronavirus outbreak I listened in on company and journalist conference calls and held multiple webinars and Microsoft Teams sessions with clients, planners and brokers. Quite often I heard comments along the lines of, “this will change the way we live, work and travel forever”. I am adamant in my belief that humans will revert right back to the way they have always done things, as soon as it safe (or permitted, whichever comes first) to do so. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is it time to switch to optimism?
Roger Montgomery
May 7, 2020
After a few tough months, Australia is starting to come out of hibernation, and investors are looking ahead – as reflected in our rebounding sharemarket. But they’ll need to be selective in their stock selections, because some businesses will do far better than others in our post-lockdown world. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Are you taking a longer-term view?
David Buckland
May 7, 2020
Currently, the US S&P 500 stands at 2,870 points, down 15 per cent from its February 2020 peak. (Meanwhile, the Australian All Ordinaries Index at 5,450 points is 25 per cent below its peak). On most fundamentals, markets have justified high valuations on the back of historically low interest rates. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Is this a FOMO rally?
Scott Phillips
May 6, 2020
A lot has been written about the COVID-19 crisis and undoubtedly it will go down in history as a monumental market crash, and so far it has been one of the quickest technical “bear” markets on record, with the S&P 500 hitting its high on 19 February 2020 and into a bear market just 16 days later. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Market commentary.
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Popular Analysis that has no value
Roger Montgomery
May 5, 2020
In this video insight Roger discusses stock market analogs and attempting to predict what the market is going to do in the future. How effective are such analogs? Not very, because the companies that make up the market are impacted differently and because interest rates, government and central bank settings, labour and productivity are all dissimilar and the drivers of markets will cause a different reaction. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Some positive signs emerging
Tim Kelley
May 4, 2020
We have previously written at length about our assessment of the evolving COVID-19 crisis, and the way investors might think about navigating the challenging market conditions that came with it. While conscious of the fact that there are only so many articles on the topic that readers need to see, today we add further hay to the stack, but this time with a more optimistic slant. Some of the developments that have caught our eye recently are unambiguously positive and may prove to be important in shaping the market environment over the next 12 months. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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Australian dividends forecast to be cut the most in the world
Andreas Lundberg
May 1, 2020
It should come as no secret that Australian companies are paying very high dividends in comparison to international companies. Compared to other major stock exchanges in the world, it is only the London Stock Exchange that has a higher dividend payout ratio – the portion of a company’s earnings that is paid out in dividend rather than retained in the company. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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