Market commentary
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To Vaccinate your portfolio or not?
Roger Montgomery
October 15, 2020
How to position portfolios for a potential (but not certain) vaccine is currently front of mind here at Montgomery. A vaccine feeds into the ‘reopening’ theme as well as the narrative about a broader economic recovery and companies that are leveraged to it – the ‘economic sensitives’. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why you shouldn’t be spooked by the rise of zombie companies
Roger Montgomery
September 30, 2020
Are you concerned about the increasing number of zombie companies and a looming tech bubble? Well, perhaps the situation is not as worrying as it seems. With governments and central banks continuing to pump money into the economy, share prices could be held aloft for some time yet. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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What do low interest rates mean for equity markets?
Tim Kelley
September 29, 2020
The last 30-40 years has seen a dramatic shift down in interest rates for much of the developed world. For example, the ten-year government bond yields in Australia and the US have declined from around 14 per cent in the early 80s to more recently lie somewhere not unadjacent to zero. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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The growth v value conundrum
David Buckland
September 28, 2020
Since the market bottom of the Global Financial Crisis in March 2009, the Russell 1000 Growth Index (R1G) has outperformed the Russell 1000 Value Index (R1V) by over 300 per cent cumulatively. Many investors seem fearful that this current era of growth style dominance will end with the same thud as its predecessor, when the Nasdaq Composite stock market index, after appreciating by 400 per cent from 1995, proceeded to decline by 78 per cent from its peak in March 2000 to October 2002. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Macquarie offers three reasons to be optimistic
Roger Montgomery
September 16, 2020
With so many economies and businesses on their knees, numerous market commentators are pessimistic about the near-term future of global share markets. But Macquarie Bank’s Chief Economist and Global Head of Macro Strategy, Ric Deverell, is not one of them. He’s just released a chart pack that offers three reasons to be optimistic. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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What the Age of Disorder means for investors
Andreas Lundberg
September 16, 2020
As you’ve no doubt noticed, the news these days is awash with reports of social unrest across the world. It’s prompted Deutsche Bank’s global strategists to argue that we’ve entered the Age of Disorder. They point to six major trends that, together, support their thesis – and which could have a big impact on equity returns in coming years. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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How COVID-19 has changed the way we spend
Roger Montgomery
September 9, 2020
New data from the Commonwealth Bank and ANZ confirms what you likely already knew – COVID-19 has spurred a major change in our spending habits. However, some of the retailers that have thrived during the lockdowns may find the going tougher in the months ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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How long will markets stay out of whack with reality?
Roger Montgomery
September 8, 2020
One of my favourite childhood books was Dr Suess’s ‘Wacky Wednesday’ in which a boy wakes to find everything in the world is inside out, upside down or simply not as it should be. In the stock market these days, it seems every day is like Wacky Wednesday. But, like in the book, how long before we wake to find Wacky Wednesday has finally come to an end? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Are you a bull or a bear? Part 2: Reasons to be bullish
Roger Montgomery
September 2, 2020
In my last blog, I set out the reasons for being pessimistic about equity markets.Now let’s look at the reasons to be bullish. I’ll let you decide which case is more compelling, and I’d love to get your comments. With many of the bear arguments centred around a bubble in technology stocks, it’s worth beginning the bull case with those same technology stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Are you a bull or a bear? Part 1: Reasons to be bearish
Roger Montgomery
August 31, 2020
If you’re unsure whether to feel positive or negative about equity markets right now, you’re not alone. Investors are strongly divided on whether markets are fair value, or too expensive and about to collapse – and there are compelling reasons for both positions. Let’s look at the reasons to be bearish. In my next blog, I’ll look at reasons to be bullish. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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