Market commentary
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Could US lockdowns slam the breaks on this market rally?
Stuart Jackson
June 29, 2020
The COVID-19 data coming out of the US is grim and getting grimmer. My concern is that many investors have been pricing in an increasingly positive economic recovery, which may not eventuate if governments in the US need to re-introduce lockdowns. And that spells danger for share prices in the US – and other markets as well. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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New investors take note: it may be time to take your profits
Roger Montgomery
June 29, 2020
One of the rather surprising trends since the COVID-19 lockdown has been the new wave of first-time share market investors. Many have enjoyed huge gains since the March market rout – often by speculating on highly risky businesses. But the ensuing dislocation between share prices and economic reality tells me that some could get their fingers badly burnt. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why I’m not a fan of the Fed buying corporate bonds
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2020
In March, the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to prevent a coronavirus-induced downturn by promising to set up an entity to buy corporate bonds and ETFs, including junk bonds and junk bond ETFs. My concern is that the Fed has simply created another time bomb that future generations will have to defuse. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why it’s so hard to pick the market direction right now
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2020
In a recent interview, Peter Switzer asked me if I was a bull or a bear. It’s a simple question, but one that requires a nuanced response. Because these are complex and unprecedented times for investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Are debt deferrals a ticking time bomb for the economy?
Andreas Lundberg
June 16, 2020
Last week, the Australian Banking Association (ABA) updated the market on the number of mortgages and business loans deferred due to impacts from the COVID-19 crisis. In all, loans totalling $234 billion are not being repaid. The question is: what proportion of these borrowers will be able to resume repaying the banks once the other COVID-19 stimulus measures end? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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Why the market’s bullish sentiment could turn on a dime
Roger Montgomery
June 15, 2020
Global stock markets have catapulted in anticipation of a sharp economic recovery. The trouble is, no one knows how soon, or how strong, the recovery will be. My concern is that negative data could easily swing market sentiment from optimism back to pessimism. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Is the economy on the ropes, or getting back on its feet?
Roger Montgomery
June 13, 2020
Recent economic surveys paint a grim picture of business conditions, job ads and home lending. The question is: can the economy bounce back from the pummeling it took at the hands of the COVID-19 lockdown? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why I’m being fearful during this market euphoria
Roger Montgomery
June 12, 2020
Warren Buffett famously said that, to be a successful investor, you should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. I think his advice is especially relevant in today’s ‘risk on’ environment, in which the fear of missing out is usurping the fear of loss. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why this market bounce has got me so perplexed
Roger Montgomery
June 11, 2020
The 11-year bull market in global equities, which COVID-19 finally brought to an end, came to be derided as the most unloved bull market in history. So, what to make of the strong, and similarly disparaged, bounce since March? Many investors look to be pricing in better times ahead, but media headlines are telling a different story. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Crisis? What crisis? The market says it’s time to buy
Roger Montgomery
June 10, 2020
If you’re scratching your head over the market’s strong rebound since March, then join the club. Because there’s still a large cohort of economists and analysts who continue to see tough times ahead. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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