Investing Education

As we have been actively commenting since the start of the year, a key thematic concern we hold for investors in both Mining and Mining services businesses was the potential for commodity prices and in particular Iron Prices to begin to fall. In such an environment, falling prices would result in lower profits and cash flows for our miners and hence we could see significant future risk of projects being either scaled back or shelved in future periods.

Our view is anchored by a supply response in two new Pilbara regions coming on stream over the next few years and also falling demand from the world’s biggest consumer of additional supply, Asia (China).

With Iron Ore falling to $123.6/t, down 9% in two weeks; we are now at a critical juncture.

Critical because this is the price considered by many to be the ‘floor’ / the most Iron Ore prices can fall given China’s own estimated cost of production is $120/t. This compares to Australia/Brazil at $40/t and Canada/USA/Europe $65/t. A price lower than $120/t would make China’s Iron Ore production uneconomic and hence, a fall below this level “just cannot occur”.

Our experience with commodity producers is a little different. Our experience tells us that marginal producers are the first to lose when commodity prices fall materially.

And in this light we continue to expect over the coming months and years we will see lower prices and perhaps, marginal / high cost producers suffering and mining services starved of work. Even if they are operating at full steam right now.

To ask a question: is the recent moratorium of all Greenfield exploration activities by BHP a sign that they see the world in a similar light?

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Investing Education.

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Roger Montgomery certainly thinks so, and he explains why in this Weekend Australian article published 21 July 2012.  Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

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I thought the downgrade in earnings by a major stockbroker of the Chinese cement stocks by 20-30% for the years to December 2012 and 2013 was revealing.  Anhui Conch, for example, one of China’s largest cement producers, is expecting its sales volume to grow by 17 percent per annum from 158 million tonnes in 2011 to 251 million tonnes in 2014.  While the average selling price per tonne for 2012 is down 15% to 20% on 2011, and the gross margin has halved.  This drives home the cyclical nature of the industry and in the past year the Anhui Conch stock price has also halved to HK$20.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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Roger Montgomery certainly thinks so, and he discusses with Ticky Fullerton how his Value.able investing strategy provides much lower valuations of the current market in this interview on ABC’s The Business broadcast 18 July 2012.  Watch here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, TV Appearances.

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Major mineral sands producer, Iluka Resources, announced this week its 2012-2014 Key Physical and Financial Parameters Guidance” released in February 2012 was “now redundant and as such no longer applicable”.

Discussions with both zircon and high grade titanium ore customers about ordering volumes for the December 2012 half-year have indicated “lower ordering patterns or an unwillingness to commit to volumes except on an “as needed” basis”.

Deteriorating economic conditions, subdued customer confidence in China, continuing weakness in the main ceramic export markets for Spain and Italy and some softening in the US manufacturing sector were all to blame.

We assume these same factors would be affecting most materials exporters.  Remain cautious.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Investing Education.

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Fresh from signing up as CEO of Leighton Holdings in August 2011, Hamish Tyrwhitt seems to have streamlining on his mind.  After selling HWE Mining to BHP Billiton for $705m, Leighton have just approved the sale of Thiess Waste Management to Remondis AG for $218m.  Proceeds will be used to cut debt which hit$2.14 billion at their 31 December 2011 balance date.

With several earnings downgrades, the Leighton share price performance has been diabolical, down from $61 in late 2007 to the current $16.40 (-74%).

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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Roger provides details of the sad decline of Hastie Group (HST) in this Money Magazine article for July 2012.  Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Investing Education.

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Roger Montgomery discusses why excessive focus on High Yield stocks is likely to yield disappointing returns in this Australian article published on 23 June 2012. Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, In the Press, Investing Education.

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Roger Montgomery and Ross Greenwood discuss the recent Fairfax Media (FXJ) restructuring announcement and its implications in this edition of Ross’ program on Radio 2GB broadcast 20 June 2012.  Listen here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market Valuation, Radio.

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Roger Montgomery certainly thinks so – and he explains why Value Investors need to do their homework to experience exceptional returns in this Australian article published on 9 June 2012. Read here.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Intrinsic Value, Investing Education, Market Valuation.

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