Insightful Insights
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Better times ahead for listed insurers?
Tim Kelley
January 23, 2013
After an extended run of disappointing performance from Australia’s largest non-life insurers, there have more recently been some positive signs. Over the past 12 months IAG’s share price has increased to around $5 from around $3 and, more recently, the QBE share price has risen from around $10 to over $12, partly on the back of press reports that cost reduction initiatives are planned. In light of these developments, it may be appropriate to consider whether these businesses face a brighter future.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Insurance.
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McMillan Shakespeare
Russell Muldoon
January 18, 2013
The recent share price fall (now partially recovered) in McMillan Shakespeare over the past week can largely be attributed to this article in The Australian.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Analyst Forecasts
Tim Kelley
January 17, 2013
In evaluating the future prospects for a business, one useful source of information is analyst earnings estimates. A good broking analyst who covers a particular company will often have a well-informed view of the factors that might influence earnings for that company in the years ahead.
At the same time, there are a number of biases and other issues with analysts’ forecasts. One interesting issue is that the forecasts can have a certain “inertia” to them, which means that changes may occur gradually over time. Because of this, it can be useful to look at the history of the forecasts, as well as the current level.
continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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The 5000 mark
Ben MacNevin
January 16, 2013
The S&P/ASX200 Index has increased by 15 per cent since mid-2012 to its current level of 4720, which has focused the attention of market commentators on the “psychologically important” 5000 mark. Since the GFC, the S&P/ASX200 Index has not been able to break through 5000 despite nearing this level in early 2010 and early 2011.
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Influenza Outbreak in America
Ben MacNevin
January 14, 2013
It is winter in the United States, and there has been a severe outbreak of influenza. New York State declared a public health emergency on Saturday, with nearly 20,000 cases of flu reported across the state so far this season (compared with 4,400 cases reported in the whole of last season). There has been a widespread public services campaign to encourage people to receive vaccines, and under the emergency order pharmacists in New York will be allowed to administer flu vaccinations to patients between 6 months and 18 years old, temporarily suspending a state law that prohibits pharmacists from administering immunisations to children.
continue…by Ben MacNevin Posted in Health Care, Insightful Insights.
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Value Investing
Tim Kelley
January 12, 2013
Value investing can be a laborious process. Properly understanding the many aspects that influence the value of a business is time-consuming, and in many cases the end result is to add one more company to the large pile of “No” decisions.
There are much quicker ways to arrive at investment decisions, one of which is to use trend-following systems. A large body of academic research has demonstrated that, historically, it has been possible to earn excess returns in a variety of markets over time by employing systematic trend-following methods (note that systematic trend following is something done by a computer employing back-tested statistical methods, not by an analyst casting their eye over a price chart).
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Paragon Care Limited (Guest Post)
Harley Grosser
January 10, 2013
The following report has been contributed by Harley Grosser – a private investor. Harley has identified a small company he would like to share his findings and personal beliefs about called Paragon Care Ltd which is aiming to take advantage of the growing aged care industry. Paragon is a distributor and manufacturer of medical equipment, and has attractive prospects if it can continue securing major contracts with hospitals. Investing in small companies that have high growth potential but are yet to produce sustainable earnings is risky, but they can be rewarding for people with the right risk profile and investment horizon. Do not purchase or sell any securities without first seeking and taking personal professional advice.
by Harley Grosser Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Intrinsic Value.
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Best Value CEO
Ben MacNevin
January 9, 2013
At Montgomery Investment Management we are pleased to learn that Graham Turner of Flight Centre has been named the best value Chief Executive Officer for 2012 by Egan & Associates.
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Insightful Insights, Tourism.
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Performance to 31 December 2012
David Buckland
January 7, 2013
The Montgomery Fund was launched on 17 August 2012. In the period to 31 December 2012 The Fund delivered a return of 16.88%, after expenses.
Over the same period the S&P/ ASX 300 Accumulation Index appreciated by 8.68%.
continue…by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Credit Corp – Underpromise, Overdeliver
Russell Muldoon
January 4, 2013
Back in August 2012 when CCP’s share price was falling, following what we considered to be conservative guidance for the full year, internally we prepared the following table:
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights.
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