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GWA Group – not all beer and skittles
Roger Montgomery
February 27, 2013
In his Short Cut column for the Herald Sun published 27 February, Roger highlights how the buoyant share price of GWA Group is not supported by the company’s recent performance. Read here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press, Insightful Insights, Property.
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The US – Capital’s Share Of Output At An All Time High, Part 2
David Buckland
February 27, 2013
Following on from the blog of 14 February 2013, I have been asked by a number of readers why I think Capital’s share of output as it all time high, and conversely why “Labour’s share of output has, in recent years, declined from 70% to 64%”.
I think there are three significant factors at work.
1. Globalisation has seen a structural decline in Western World manufacturing. The declining price of manufactured goods, in real terms, has ensured a weak bargaining positioning for labour. In Australia, for example, the Manufacturing Sector as a percentage of all workers has declined from 19% to only 9%, in the past thirty years;
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Swapping leaders 101
David Buckland
February 25, 2013
Jennifer Hewitt’s article in last Thursday’s Australian Financial Review entitled “Swapping leaders 101” focused on the relatively sudden departures of RIO’s Tom Albanese and BHP’s Marius Kloppers. The Sydney Morning Herald claimed “outgoing BHP Billiton Chief Executive will take cash, shares and performance rights worth up to $75.2 million at current prices”.
We believe the timing of the departures was to draw attention away from the substantial erosion in returns and profit, however some discussion about remuneration is warranted.
Andrew Smithers, the author of Valuing Wall Street, makes the following point,
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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MEDIA
Which Energy Stocks Does Roger Rate?
Roger Montgomery
February 21, 2013
In the highlights from this edition of Peter Switzer’s Sky Business program broadcast 21 February 2013, Roger provides his latest insights into Origin Energy (ORG) and BHP (BHP), and also explains how applying his Value.able investment strategy still makes Wesfarmers (WES) a stock that Montgomery Investment Management won’t hold in the near term, despite its price recovery. Watch here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, TV Appearances.
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A little archeology always helps
Roger Montgomery
February 21, 2013
The cover of the latest AFR Smart Investor was a worrying sign for me this morning. Emblazoned with the words “Ready, Set, Rally” I was reminded of the cover of a similar magazine many years ago. The older magazine had the words “Takeoff” – or something similar – with a subtitle that read; “how to buy tech stocks without getting burnt”. That magazine was released in March 2000 – a month before the tech wreck began.
Trading the opposite direction to magazine covers has been a profitable pastime for many private and professional investors but should we conclude that this month’s magazine cover means a correction is in the offing?
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Monadelphous Group – Revenue growth to flatten from Fiscal 2014
David Buckland
February 19, 2013
The Monadelphous Group (MND) is one of Australia’s most successful project management, construction, asset management and maintenance service companies focused on the Resource, Energy and Infrastructure sectors. Revenue, over the five years to June 2013, is forecast to jump from under $1.0 billion to $2.6 billion.
Mona’s interim report, released on Tuesday 19 February, revealed a more sober outlook from Fiscal 2014.
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Cisco: Mobile data traffic to grow at 66% p.a. over the next five years
David Buckland
February 18, 2013
The Cisco White Paper, released recently, makes some extraordinary predictions over the next five years and and is well worth reading.
To summarise:
1. In 2012, global mobile traffic grew 70 per cent to 885 petabytes per month. By 2017, this will grow 13 times and surpass 11 exabytes per month, a compound annual growth rate of 66%;
by David Buckland Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications, Value.able.
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Now Hear This!!
Roger Montgomery
February 16, 2013
Australia’s farmers agree. Coles and Woolies need to be reigned in. I was chatting with John Morrison on ABC Radio this week and my description of the ultimate result of government policy settings fired up the farming community. So grab a coffee, a cup of tea, a beer or a glass of pinot and settle in.
This is one issue that affects all Australians and their wallets.
This interview was broadcast 12 February 2012. Listen here.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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U.S. Health Care System
Ben MacNevin
February 15, 2013
This article provides interesting context for Resmed and the reimbursement bidding process (extract of key paragraphs below)
Jaime Rosenthal, a senior at Washington University in St. Louis, called more than 100 hospitals in every state last summer, seeking prices for a hip replacement for a 62-year-old grandmother who was uninsured but had the means to pay herself. The quotes she received might surprise even hardened health care economists: only about half of the hospitals, including top-ranked orthopedic centers and community hospitals, could provide any sort of price estimate, despite repeated calls. Those that could gave quotes that varied by a factor of more than 10, from $11,100 to $125,798.
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Health Care, Insightful Insights.
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Nothing happened but who should we believe?
Roger Montgomery
February 14, 2013
It seems even the facts are up for interpretation when reading reports of what happened overnight. Is the invention of news signs of indigestion?
As you know I have long suggested that the daily market wrap is a bit of an information free zone for long-term investors. Occasionally however it can be funnier than the comic strips. This morning the overnight reports that arrived in our inbox gave us reason to have a chuckle.
Perhaps nothing happened but no journalist could possibly write “nothing happened”…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Market Valuation, Value.able.
