Insightful Insights
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Iron Ore Pricing: Where is the floor?
David Buckland
November 14, 2014
Citigroup Inc. analyst, Ivan Szpakowski has slashed his iron-ore forecast to average US$65/tonne in 2015.
Ivan is looking at the iron-ore price bottoming in the September 2015 quarter at an average US$60/tonne on the back of renewed supply growth and further demand weakness. About 140 million tonnes of export supply growth is expected in 2015, with the bulk of this coming from Rio, Vale and BHP.
When the Australian Federal Budget deficit of A$30 billion for the 2014/2015 financial year was announced in May, the iron-ore price was above US$100/tonne and few analysts could see it would decline to the current levels.
So far this calendar year, the iron-ore price has declined 44 per cent from US$131/tonne to US$74/tonne. If Ivan is right, there are further declines expected.
As we have previously noted, it is worth remembering that for decades prior to 2004, the price of iron ore traded between just US$10/tonne and US$20/tonne. The price then rallied to $187 in 2011. It has been falling ever since. Today’s experts guessing iron ore’s near term levels are the same people who failed to see the current levels materialising.
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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AFR: Just how good are our banks
David Buckland
November 13, 2014
The Australian Financial Review’s Jeremy Chunn published an excellent piece this week taking a look at the major banks. With full-year results for three of the four major banks delivered in the past two weeks, Jeremy asked five professional investors for their outlook on the sector. This included a London-based analyst for perspective on the value of Australian banks relative to international peers.
The Montgomery team has generated meaningful insights from our research and analysis of the banking space and the impact of the changes emanating from the Financial System Inquiry. Read the article to below to find out which bank is the stand out pick in an industry facing increasing challenges.
Click here to read the article on the AFR’s site.
Please note, you may need to be an AFR subscriber to view this article.
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Montgomery News and Updates.
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Stress Testing The Banks
David Buckland
November 12, 2014
Wayne Byres, Chairman of Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) recently made a mockery of the Banks’ self-administered stress tests. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Montgomery News and Updates.
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Healthscope vs Ramsay Health Care
Ben MacNevin
November 12, 2014
Healthscope (ASX: HSO) and Ramsay Health Care (ASX: RHC) hotly contested the Northern Beaches hospital tender at Sydney’s Frenchs Forest, with Healthscope emerging victorious. Should Ramsay shareholders be concerned? continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Health Care, Insightful Insights, Montgomery News and Updates.
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The need for speed
Scott Shuttleworth
November 11, 2014
Last week I posted some data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics to find out how fast Australia’s appetite for downloads had been growing over the past few years. If you haven’t read it, you can find the post here.
Now I pose a different question although slightly related, is there a relationship between the speed of internet offered in a country and demand? Interestingly enough there is. continue…
by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Are you being rewarded?
Tim Kelley
November 10, 2014
Proponents of the efficient markets hypothesis argue that the only way to achieve higher investment returns is to take more risk. Clearly, there’s some truth to this – very low risk asset classes (like cash) tend to deliver lower returns – on average – than higher risk asset classes (like shares). However, when you look within the shares asset class, the picture is rather more interesting. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Darth Veda
Russell Muldoon
November 7, 2014
Veda Group Limited (VED) is one of the more successful IPO’s we have participated in recently. Listing in early December 2013 at $1.25 the stock went on to subsequently double in price hitting a high of $2.55 just a few months later.
Adding to this success was the exceptional 2014 full year results that came in ahead of the prospectus guidance, producing one of the best reports over the August reporting season. continue…
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Market Valuation.
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Drip-Fed Economies Die
Roger Montgomery
November 6, 2014
It’s a bloody disgrace! It’s un-Australian and it’s nothing more than stealing from your own neighbour.
Finally, The Australian Financial Review, who received 28,000 pages of leaked tax information, forwarded it to ATO Commissioner Chris Jordan. The information reveals how 343 local and foreign companies used accounting firm PwC to slash their tax bills through total swap returns, royalty payments, hybrid debt structures and secret deals with tax havens like Luxembourg. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights.
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Bubble Watch #17 – The Red pill or the Blue pill?
Roger Montgomery
November 5, 2014
Some times you just wake up with a clear view of our current condition. I think my friend Chris Joye, a columnist for the The Australian Financial Review and a director at YBR Funds Management, might be feeling a little like Neo did in the movie The Matrix, when he woke up to see reality for the first time.
In his article today, Why Capitalism Is Not Doing Its Job, Chris makes the observation:
“There is absolutely a role for governments to vouchsafe a minimum level of liquidity when markets temporarily shut tight in crises. I argued this in March 2008 apropos the securitisation market, which the government ended up (very) profitably supporting with $15 billion. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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The Financial System Inquiry
David Buckland
November 5, 2014
I sat next to David Murray AO, Chairman of the Financial Services Inquiry (FSI), at a breakfast meeting yesterday and I understand his final report is scheduled for presentation to Treasurer Hockey before the end of the month.
David is a quiet and very thoughtful guy and with a chuckle he said, “I have been trying to leak the recommendations of the FSI but no one seems to be listening”. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
