Insightful Insights
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Merry Christmas from the Value.able Graduate class of 2010
Roger Montgomery
December 21, 2010
It is my great pleasure to present a very special tribute (thank you to my team) for the Value.able Graduate Class of 2010.
Thank you Jesse, Michael (Bali), Young Les, Michael (Aussie Battler), Matthew, Justin, Lior, John, Rad, Gary in Paris, George, Dan’s Mum, Steven & Sophie, the Master Chefs, John and Paul for sharing your Value.able journey with our community. And a second thank you to Steven for posting his Value.able 12 Days of Christmas at Facebook!
Thank you for your support this year. We have created an incredibly valuable community of investors that share sound ideas and mentor those just beginning their value investing journey.
Thanks to you – the Value.able community – 2010 year has been a year of firsts…
The First Edition of Value.able was released, went global and sold out in just 14 weeks.
- – Montgomery Quality Ratings (MQR) are appearing in conversations all over the world.
– My value investing YouTube channel hit #2 Most Viewed in Australia.
– In aggregate, the companies I listed at my Insights blog, which met all the Value.able criteria, outperformed the market by a satisfactory margin.
Most excitingly, Value.able Graduates have applied their new skills and produced over 6,000 extraordinarily insightful comments here at the blog!
And one more thing… for those who have requested holiday homework, my soon-to-be-released blog post will most certainly provide a challenge.
Thank you once again for joining the Value.able community. I wish you and your family a safe and peaceful Christmas and a prosperous 2011.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 21 December 2010
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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What are your Twelve Stocks of Christmas?
Roger Montgomery
December 9, 2010
I have an assignment for you.
Before we start, two things…
1. If you are looking for a gift that keeps on giving in 2011, give your loved ones a copy of Value.able. To guarantee your gift makes it into Santa’s sleigh, you must order before 5pm next Monday, 13 December.
2. Put Thursday 16 December @ 7pm in your diary. Sky Business has invited me to appear on their Summer Money program.
Within Summer Money, Sky is running a series called The Twelve Stocks of Christmas and I have been asked to present one of the twelve stocks. What I would like to do is let everyone on Sky Business know about you – the Value.able Graduate class of 2010!
You have been instrumental in contributing to the knowledge and awareness of value investing and I would like to say thank you by reviewing your suggestions on air.
So, what will it be? You can nominate one of the companies we have already discussed. More points can be earned by contributing a company of which you have industry-level knowledge. Think about your industry or business:
– Who is the strongest [listed] competitor in your industry?
– Who would you like to see out of business because they are an emerging threat?
– What are their competitive advantages, their opportunities for growth and why do you think they will sell more of their product or services in the future or at higher prices?
– Perhaps they are out of favour in the share market, but you believe it’s a case of a temporary set back being treated like a permanent impairment?
I encourage you all to post your contribution. There are just two rules:
1. One stock (your best pick) per Value.able Graduate. The more detailed your information, the better; and
2. Ideas must be submitted by Wednesday 15 December
Before the live show at 7pm next Thursday, 16 December, I will run my valuation eye over every suggestion and give each my Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR). But the list will be yours – a contribution from the Value.able Class of 2010.
Whilst only one stock will make it to the show, EVERY SINGLE STOCK contributed on this post with sufficient supporting detail will be subsequently listed in my final pre-Christmas post for 2010, complete with MQRs, current valuations and prospective valuations (I have decided to called these MVEs – see below).
Embrace this opportunity to practice what you have learned over the past twelve months, and get the official Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR) and Montgomery Value Estimate (MVE) for your favourite stock. You never know, your stock may just be the one I contribute on national television to The Twelve Stocks of Christmas.
Post your suggestion here at the blog by Wednesday 15 December 2010.
I look forward to reviewing your insights and hearing what you think of your classmates’ suggestions. Simply click the Leave a Comment button below.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 9 December 2010.
Postscript: thank you for your kind words and birthday wishes. I’m thoroughly enjoying my time away and am very much looking forward to reading and replying to your comments when I return to the office next Monday.
Postscript #2: Steven posted his own Value.able 12 Days of Christmas at my Facebook page last Friday – brilliant!
On the twelfth day of Christmas,
My independent analyst’s blog gave to me
12 A1s humming
11 valuations piping
10 C5s a-sleeping
9 forecasts prancing
8 capital raisings milking
7 floats a-sinking
6 CEOs praying
5 golden A1s!!
4 C5 turds
3 emerging bubbles,
2 editions of Value.able
And a market leader with a high ROE!Here is Steven with his daughter Sophie.
Roger, you were good enough to sign my book…
“To Steven, Your guide to avoiding the dogs you told me you were so worried about, RM”.
Here I am reading Value.able to my little two year old Sophie at bedtime, holding her toy dogs. The moral of the story for Sophie? Roger shows dogs make fun toys and pets but must be avoided at all costs when investing in great businesses!”
Steven
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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Why aren’t you answering my comments or emails Roger?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2010
At 7.30am this morning after inspecting a property, I found myself on the street being presented with a sealed envelope and cryptic directions to a taxi suspiciously parked just 10 metres from where I was standing.Turns out my family thought my upcoming 40th was a pretty good reason to celebrate and surprise me! They have whisked me away for a few days, as one of mates put it, for a ‘birthday soriee’.
I am completely unprepared. My laptop sits idle on my desk and iPhone charger is still in the power point (not turned on). I have been told there is an internet café where we are staying, however I’m not certain how reliable the connection will be.
I was planning to publish a new post today: What are the twelve stocks of Christmas? Thankfully all the post requires is one final proof read and then a click on ‘Publish’. I’ll venture down to the internet café this evening.
Please keep posting your comments here at the blog and on Facebook over the next few days and I will reply upon my return. I will be back in the office on Monday 13 December
Thank you in advance for your understanding and patience.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 8 December 2010.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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Has 2010 been a good year for Value.able investing?
Roger Montgomery
December 7, 2010
Christmas is about sharing and joyful memories. With just 18 days to go, I thought it would be educational, if not insightful, to share the performance of some of the securities Value.able Graduates have discussed here at my blog.Does the Value.able approach to investing, as advocated some of the world’s leading investors, have merit?
First Edition Graduates may not be surprised by the results posted below. The higher quality businesses, those scoring A1 and A2 Montgomery Quality Ratings (MQRs), and those at larger discounts to intrinsic value have, in aggregate, beaten the index. Some have trounced it. And with the exception of QR National, the companies that were labeled as poor quality (C4 and C5 MQRs) and overpriced, have under-performed. Some of the maturing higher quality companies (think JB Hi-Fi) have indeed performed.
The following tables present some of the blog posts and the stocks that I have listed, mentioned or discussed in them. I have consistently suggested investigating an approach that seeks the highest quality businesses and prices that offer the biggest discounts to value.
Whilst the results are short-term (therefore nothing should be taken from them), they are nevertheless encouraging. The approach advocated in Value.able is worth investigating.
Many Value.able Graduates have suggested I start a newsletter or a stock market advice service. Thank you for the encouragement. I do enjoy the cross pollination of ideas and look forward to 2011 attracting even more investors to the patient and rational approach shared here at my blog.
Here are the tables (DO YOUR HOMEWORK AND RESEARCH. ENSURE YOU ARE COMPREHENSIVELY INFORMED. SEEK AND TAKE PERSONAL PROFESSIONAL ADVICE).
Do these three companies represent the last of good value? Oroton, JB Hi-Fi, DWS, Cogstate, Cash Converters, Slater & Gordon, ITX, Forge, Decmil and United Overseas
Which 15 companies receive my A1 status? CSL, Worley Parsons, Cochlear, Energy Resources, JB Hi-Fi, Navitas, REA Group, Carsales, Mondaelphous, Iress, Fleetwood, ARB, McMillian Shakesphere, Sirtex, Oroton.
Is Apple an A1? What A1 companies does Roger Montgomery think are the best value right now? Apple, Forge and Decmil.
Where are my valuations Roger? Cabcharge.
JBH’s years of fast growth has slowed.
What do you think of the QAN, JBH and ITX results Roger? Qantas and ITX
Telstra profits will continue to drop
Who is in front of the reporting season avalanche? Navitas, JB Hi-Fi, Cochlear and Matrix.
Part II: What else has the reporting season avalanche uncovered? Ross Human Directions, Monadelphous, Forge, Carsales, DWS, Finbar, SMS Management, CSL, Consolidated Media, Integrated Research, McMillian Shakesphere, Count Financial, Domino’s Pizza, The Reject Shop, Credit Corp, Chandler Macleod, Primary Healthcare, Slater & Gordon, Noni B, Embelton and Tamawood.
Retailing Maturity – Roger Montgomery now has reservations about JB Hi-Fi.
Part III: The avalanche is over – where should you be digging for A1s? Lycopodium, REA Group, Fleetwood, K2 Asset Management, Acrux, Hunterhall, Macquarie Radio, Blackmores, ISS Group, Thorn Group, GUD Holdings, Webjet, Kresta Holdings, Kingsgate, Fiducian and Euroz.
How does cash flow through Decmil?
Part IV: Where should you focus your digging?
Will Roger Montgomery invest in QR National?
I thought the performance of Fosters after the wine bid was knocked back was interesting, but only another year or two will confirm whether the opportunity to add value was passed up. Some higher quality businesses also underperformed the market, thanks in part to deteriorating short-term prospects rather than deteriorating quality.
Remember to look for bright long-term prospects. Of course, in the short-term prospects will swing around – that is business, but longer-term prospects of businesses with true sustainable competitive advantages tend to win out.
Keep an eye on the blog before Christmas as I will be posting a couple of very handy lists (and possibly some homework) before the annual Montgomery Family Christmas break.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 7 December 2010.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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Where else has Value.able been?
Roger Montgomery
December 1, 2010
It has been a month or so since I last shared with you photographs from Value.able Graduates. These pics are from Gary, who has been travelling through Europe. He wrote “Read the book while traveling through Europe. Have attached some shots you may be able to use in your where in the world has Value.able been? One at the Louvre and the other at a little coffee with the Eiffel tower behind. Enjoyed the book, hoping to pay for the trip with the knowledge, Gary“.
I was in Perth last month to speak for the ASX and Australian Investors’ Association. This picture is from Dan (with his Mum).Dear Roger,
I just wanted to give a big Thank You for your presentation at the Wembley Tennis Club in Perth recently! I wasn’t able to attend because I live 450km North of Perth and have been busy with work, but I told my parents to attend and they said they had a fantastic night! Also, a huge thank you for signing my copy of your book and for taking the time to have a photo with Mum! We all love the book and have benefited greatly from your wisdom. I’m relatively new to the stock market (I’m 26 years old) but I feel as though I have learnt a great deal during the last year. I started getting interested in the stock market approximately 5 years ago, and back then I had the desire to own things that were (are still) considered to be “Blue Chip”, e.g. Incitec Pivot, Westfield, Santos, Babcock and Brown, Virgin Blue, etc. Now I have a far greater sense of how to approach investing in a more rational way, and how to identify companies that are actually of high quality. Now I spend my spare time on focusing only on quality businesses and have done really well using your solid and sensible approach. Thank you for the Value.able education! Maybe one day I’ll have the courage to post a comment on your blog (which is fantastic). I hope to see you when you’re next in Perth for a presentation so that I can thank you in person. All the best, Dan
And whilst Mark didn’t include photos of his Value.able journey, he has certainly impressed me with his enthusiasm.
“Hi Roger, Loved your book. You may be distressed or impressed but I have underlined highlighted and read separate chapters often. Dog eared sections etc. etc. I feel like I’m back in school and I’m 53. Seriously tremendous. Well done. Congrats, Mark”
A little ‘off topic’ was this email from Ken. Thanks Ken…
Roger,
Half the battle, getting started with any sort of analysis is being confident that one is not wasting one’s time going about things the wrong way. You have indeed given me a ‘leg-up’ with a range of aspects of my investing and thank you. My early career (and still a component of my work) involved collecting field data to calibrate and validate a pasture model (I’m still collecting validation data each year – 25 years since starting and training people, although engaged in quite different work now). I have spent years working with this model and with the scientist who built the model. There was never, in the early days, a definitive manual – just a mutual sharing of insights, late hours, passion and pain.
The modelling is now second nature and I’m more concerned with the flaws with the model than anything. But there was a huge barrier to entry – no manual could ever replace that research and effort that I put in to become confident and eventually proficient with what I was doing. It helped though, to have a more experienced person there for guidance – often just pointing out a reference to read etc. In turn I try to help people with their efforts where I can but it is up to the individual to get their own hands dirty, begin their own journey but, in our case, now as part of a ‘college’ of users. You are right in your approach – offering us a generous ‘leg up’ with your book and a means to share insights (your blog). By putting things into practice for ourselves, the keen will learn both the art and the science and, hopefully, slowly, become better investors and more value.able to both you and fellow bloggers. In many respects, this is how our team at work has operated for so long. As a team, we have become well respected both nationally and internationally – the college itself knows no institutional boundary.
In the preface to your book, Simon Hoyle notes:
“By helping to equip investors with the right set of skills, Roger is, either consciously or unconciously, waging a war against those who would seek to profit from the naivety or misplaced trust of others”.
Along the same lines, Alan Kohler, in “Why I started EUREKAreport” states:
“But it’s important to understand that investing is work. It is not gambling, or wishing and hoping, or trying to get the inside dope: it is work; a second job. Nevertheless with the right kind of support, you can do it and you can beat the pros. Eureka Report is the beginning of an attempt to provide that support and to redress the balance – to give ordinary people the tools and the knowledge to become independent and reclaim the control – and the money! – that is rightfully theirs.”
Roger, you are indeed forming an ‘investment college’ and it is good to be a part of it. I look forward to your latest blog and happy for you to reference anything.
Cheers
Ken
Thank you to everyone who has gone to so much trouble to demonstrate just how profound an effect my book has been having on your travel plans – if not your investing plans. I am genuinely encouraged and humbled at the same time by your support. Thank you again.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 1 December 2010
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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How many of your Chips are Blue?
Roger Montgomery
November 26, 2010
If you are new to the stock market, I believe it is possible that you have been lulled into a false sense of security. I say this because I regularly hear well-meaning advice that goes something like this; “just buy a portfolio of blue chips and hold for the long term”But what is a blue chip? Here are some of the definitions I have found around the place:
“a common stock of a nationally-known company whose value and dividends are reliable; typically have high price and low yield; blue chips are usually safe investments”
“A blue chip stock is the stock of a well-established company having stable earnings and no extensive liabilities. Blue chip stocks pay regular dividends, even when business is faring worse than usual. …”
“A large company. Blue chip shares are generally lower risk. FTSE 100 constituents are generally considered blue chips”
“Shares of companies that are considered to be particularly solid and with a high capitalisation level. Their purchase is presumably associated with minor risk when the Stock Exchange falls”
And my new favourite definition;
“Blue Chip is the third album by Acoustic Alchemy, released under the MCA Master Series label in 1989, and again under GRP in 1996.”
Clearly there is only rough consensus around what a ‘blue chip’ actually is, but I get the distinct impression that a lack of understanding about what truly constitutes ‘high quality’ has meant the resultant definitions are clumsy at best. And if advisors can’t define quality/blue chip with some consensus, then its quite possible new investors are plunging into a blind-leading-the-blind situation.
Here at my Insights blog, I don’t talk about blue chips. Why? Because they don’t exist. There is no such thing.
I define quality through my A1-C5 Montgomery Quality Ratings (the MQRs) using a raft of measures and scenarios, combined with measures of the financial relationship a company has articulated over the years with its shareholders and its competitive position.
Warren Buffett once observed that time is the friend of the wonderful business but the enemy of a poor one. You don’t want to put the shares of a bad business, even if it’s a big one, in the bottom drawer and forget about them. Long term buy-and-hold investing then should only apply to the truly high quality companies – A1 companies.
To that end I would like to share with you an early Christmas gift (until Value.able arrives under your Christmas tree).
One of the definitions noted above and a commonly held one is that blue chips have to be large companies. Companies that inhabit the S&P/ASX 50, for example, may be considered Blue Chips. Putting aside for a moment the fact that there are plenty of large companies that have gone to the wall, it is possible to re-rank the so called Blue Chips – the large capitalisation companies – and find out if any are more blue than the rest.
So in the pursuit of ‘blueness’, below you will find all companies with a current market capitalisation of more than $10 billion sorted by my MQR (followed by Safety Margin for good measure). I have also included my current expected (annual) rate of change in Value.able Intrinsic Value over the next three years and thrown in dividend yields because I know how adored they are.
Of course, all of this is purely didactic and not intended as advice. YOU MUST SEEK AND TAKE PERSONAL PROFESSIONAL ADVICE. Also remember that I do not know what share prices are going to do, they could all halve or double and my MQRs andValue.able Intrinsic Values could all change tomorrow, possibly by a lot. They could go up or down and I am under no obligation to keep you updated. So please DO NOT RELY ON THE INFORMATION PROVIDED.
Having made that clear, and I am not joking about such serious matters, here is the list:
So its seems not all blue chips are entirely blue. As one of my friends – who likes to occasionally catch the amber light – says, “there’s still a bit of green left!”
Lumping all large companies into the ‘Blue Chip’ camp may not lead you to secure returns. Indeed, it could more likely see you merely lurch from one crisis to the next. If that is an experience you would like to change or avoid, then understanding the factors that indicate good quality is vital.
Value.able Graduates would have read the chapters about identifying extraordinary businesses in my book. If you haven’t yet secured your copy of Value.able you can do so at my website, www.rogermontgomery.com.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 26 November 2010.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Value.able.
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What A1 stocks am I looking at right now?
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2010
If you saw my post titled ‘Are you drowning in a sea of complexity‘, you will recognise the A1 businesses I shared with Peter’s viewers on Monday night. Whilst the list of A1s isn’t new, I did share some fresh insights into my Montgomery Quality Ratings, and my thoughts about Oroton CEO Sally Macdonald selling shares.
Part I: What is the secret of Roger Montgomery’s A1 Montgomery Quality Rating?
Part II: What are Roger Montgomery’s Top 20 A1 stocks?
Part III: What are Roger Montgomery’s cheapest A1 businesses?
Visit Roger Montgomery’s YouTube Channel to watch more of his TV appearances.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 17 November 2010.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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Have you been getting your daily dose?
Roger Montgomery
November 9, 2010
If only it worked that well all the time!Last Thursday evening (4 November) on Peter’s Switzer TV I listed, amongst other companies, Credit Corp and Forge Group as two I would have in the hypothetical Self Managed Super Fund Peter challenged me to set up that day.
Why did I nominate CCP and FGE? Both receive my A1 or A2 MQR and both have been trading at a discount to their intrinsic value.
If you are a regular reader of my blog you would have read my insights for some months on these companies. And if you saw today’s announcements, you can imagine why I am a little happier than usual.
Credit Corp’s previous 2011 NPAT guidance was $16-$18 million. Today the company announced FY11 would likely produce an NPAT result of $18-$20 million.
Forge Group’s announcement states “The Board wishes to advise that the company forecasts net profit before tax for the half year ending 31st December 2010 to be in the range of $25-$27 million. This represents an improvement on the previous corresponding period (pcp $19.04m) of up to 42%.”
As I fly to Perth for a presentation and company visit, I am encouraged that several of the companies Value.able graduates mentioned in our lists are also hitting new 52-week highs. In a rising market that lifts all boats, it is perhaps unsurprising, but nevertheless it should be an encouragement to Value.able graduates and value investors that companies like FLT, DCG, MIN, FWD, FGE, CCP, NCK, DTL, MCE, MTU and TGA have all hit year highs – some of them yesterday. More importantly those prices are perhaps justified by their intrinsic values.
Of course I am not here to predict where those prices will go next, because I simply don’t know. Short-term prices are largely a function of popularity and the market could begin a QE2-inspired correction, an Indian infrastructure-inspired bubble or a China liquidity-inspired bubble tomorrow. I have no way of telling and instead, I focus on intrinsic values and only pay cursory attention to share prices.
So, as I always say, seek and take personal professional advice before taking any action and remember that 1) I don’t know where the share price is going 2) I am under no obligation to keep you up-to-date with my thoughts about these or any company, my Montgomery Quality Ratings or my valuations and I might change my views, values and MQRs at any time so don’t rely on them and 3) I may buy or sell shares in any company mentioned here at any time without informing you.
And so I remind you one more time. Please seek and take personal professional advice and always conduct your own research.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 9 November 2011.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.
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How will the New Lease Accounting Standards impact my view of retailers?
Roger Montgomery
October 29, 2010
Joab is a regular visitor and commentator on my Insights blog and he’s a Value.able PHD graduate. Joab has put together an elegant summary of the impact – on retailers particularly – from the proposed changes to accounting standards for reporting lease liabilities to better reflect the contingent liability that is an operating lease.
No need to thank Joab. He’s delighted to help and I am delighted he went to the very great effort and time to contribute.
Why are the changes important? The impact of a bigger asset and a bigger liability will have no change on equity, but when you compare a bigger debt to the same equity, you will get a higher Debt to Equity figure. This will impact my Montgomery Quality Rating (MQRs) next year.
So here are Joab’s thoughts (with the community’s thanks):
Current State:
A draft proposal on accounting standard for leases was issued recently. This proposal could still be subjected to change as it is not yet finalised. That said, the principle of what it is trying to achieve is not expected to change.
Estimated timing:
Target date is to issue a finalised standard in 2011.
Key changes:
The information below focuses on the lessee’s perspective and has been simplified to highlight key impacts.
1. Operating leases will be on balance sheet as a lease liability (there will no longer be a distinction between operating and finance leases);
2. A corresponding asset will be recognised, separately on balance sheet, which offsets the operating lease liability;
3. Rent expenses will be replaced with depreciation and interest expenses;
4. Operating cash flow will no longer include cash outflow on rent. Instead, rental cash flow will be in the Financing Activities category as ‘Principal and Interest repayment’.
The table below compares the current and the new accounting rules on the financial statements.
Standard setters are open to feedback before end of this year.
Key Impacts:
– Financial ratios on gearing will suffer with more debt on balance sheet. For example: debt/ equity ratio, gearing ratio, interest cover ratio.
– Cash flow from operating activities will improve because rent will be presented in financing activities
– EBIT or EBITDA will improve as rent expense is replaced with depreciation and interest.
– Operating earnings will have a slightly different profile. Rentals expenses will no longer be a straight line expense.Using JB Hi-Fi as an example
Note:
– I have excluded discounting on Operating lease commitment to simplify the calculation
– Debt/ Equity = Debt / Equity
– Net Gearing = (Debt – cash) / (Debt + Equity)Posted by Roger Montgomery, on behalf of Joab, 29 October 2010.
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Investing Education.
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Never too young to start learning?
Roger Montgomery
October 28, 2010
The ASX established the Schools Sharemarket Game to teach high school students about investing and give them the opportunity to put their learning into practice.
Ron feels high school is too late to start his newborn son’s investment journey so has taken Warren Buffett’s advice…
I remember reading that Warren Buffett started investing around the age of 11 and he always mentioned that he wished he started 11 years earlier! Therefore I thought my 4 month old son, Lior, shouldn’t waste any time and start reading Value.able!
All the best,
RonAnd from Graduates already in the field…
Matt: Value.able and a glass of Chateau St Jean 2006 Cinq Cepages
John: The best book in the world
Thank you Jesse, Michael, Young Les, Justin, Michael V, Matthew, Rad, Ron, Matt and John for sharing your Value.able adventures with our community.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, 28 October 2010.
UPDATE: posted 3 November.
Hi Roger,
This is Max my nephew, he is not quite ready for your book but he is heading in the right direction.
Gavin
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.
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