Global markets
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What will roar when the USD eventually reverses?
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2022
There is no question, as a consequence of the pandemic central banks employed radical unconventional monetary policy, alongside equally radical fiscal policy. In an ideal world, there would be no consequences, however every action must have a reaction. The reaction, with a substantial lag, of course, is inflation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why it pays to keep an eye on central bank policy
Roger Montgomery
September 19, 2022
The correlation between money supply and equity market returns has never been clearer. Right now, central banks are intent on fighting inflation by hiking interest rates and shrinking their balance sheets – which has led to the current market sell-off. But when central banks change tack, we should see markets rally once more. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Beware of a head fake, warns Goldman Sachs
Roger Montgomery
August 26, 2022
When it comes to investing, a head fake is an increase or decrease in market performance that is quickly followed by a shift in the opposite direction. And with the market bouncing off recent lows, that’s exactly what the analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning could soon occur as investors realise they became too excited too soon. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Growth stocks could rebound if inflation turns out to be “transitory” after all
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2022
Since bravely declaring that inflation would be “transitory” the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been ridiculed for being so wrong. After all, we’ve since seen inflation exceed initial estimates and be more persistent than anticipated. But now it seems inflation could be transitory after all. And that augers well for quality growth stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The size of the hangover usually corresponds with the size of the party!
David Buckland
June 22, 2022
Is this upcoming economic slowdown going to be a minor flesh-wound or a significant recession? At Montgomery Investment Management, we are receiving a lot of inquiry about adding to investments (minor flesh wound) versus a significant recession (the bear market has a long way to run). continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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A forecast slowdown is not a recession
Roger Montgomery
June 6, 2022
Most economists are forecasting a domestic and global economic slowdown. According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, economic obstacles, including the Russia–Ukraine war, China’s COVID lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages, and the consequent inflationary pressures on both finished goods and raw materials are well known, and in some cases becoming entrenched. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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If Buffett is buying, should I?
Roger Montgomery
May 24, 2022
Equity markets have borne the brunt of investor panic. Rising interest rates, the biggest bond market rout since the 80s, persistent inflation from labour shortages and consequent supply chain constipation, as well as an entrenched military conflict in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, and finally an admission from the U.S. Federal Reserve they took too long to commencing reversing hyper-accommodative monetary policy is all but a pile-on for investors desperately seeking returns above the punitive rates offered by cash. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Where to invest if the economy heads for a hard landing
Roger Montgomery
May 20, 2022
Right now, there’s no shortage of pessimistic forecasts for the U.S. economy. You need only look at recent reports from the likes of Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. These bleak forecasts have many U.S. investors talking up the probability of a bear market in equities. In this environment, careful stock selection will be more important than ever. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Macquarie’s economic update Pt 4 –China will continue to grow
Roger Montgomery
May 3, 2022
As highlighted in the preceding blogs, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, see darker times ahead for the US economy and equity markets in general, but a mixed picture for Australia due largely to our wealth of commodities. Meanwhile, they believe China will continue to grow. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Macquarie’s economic update Part 2 – In the US, winter is coming
Roger Montgomery
April 26, 2022
In their latest global economic update, Macquarie Bank economists, Ric Deverell and Hayden Skilling, paint a far from rosy picture of the year ahead. For the US they see rising interest rates, a slowing economy and a strong chance of a recession. And their views on returns in equity markets are bleak. If they are correct, then it’s time for investors to be extra cautious, and to focus their portfolios on quality and growth. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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