Global markets
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Transferring the pain from the levered Chinese property developers to the banks
David Buckland
November 30, 2023
As China reflated its economy in 2015, we saw a massive five-to-six-year tailwind assisting the property boom. Speculation and strong property prices led to over-supply, and the eventual carnage experienced by most highly levered Chinese property developers over the past two years. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Property.
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- POSTED IN Global markets, Property
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Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2023
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), U.S. regulators imposed stricter regulations on larger banks. Limiting their riskier lending for commercial real estate and development. Their more conservative lending practices meant property owners turned to smaller banks or sought second loans from non-bank lenders to bridge their financing gaps, often on top of existing bank mortgages. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property
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What factors influence the future of oil?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2023
As world oil’s upstream and downstream industries stand at a crossroads, investors globally face the challenge of deciphering innumerable geopolitical and economic signals. These signals will also directly impact inflation rates with implications for central bank interest rate policy. For investors, the outlook for oil holds more than the usual amount of sway. From potential upheavals in the Middle East to colossal mergers in the U.S., here’s a shallow dive into the factors influencing the future of oil. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Former NY Federal Reserve President Dudley offers insight on U.S. economic outlook
Roger Montgomery
November 15, 2023
At a recent investment conference here in Sydney, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), and now Bloomberg columnist William C. Dudley, provided a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in the U.S., highlighting several key points that shed light on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) perspective and future policy directions. Dudley’s analysis offers a crucial perspective for understanding the Fed’s current mindset and the potential trajectory of its future policies. All of which, of course, have consequences for investors’ portfolios. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary
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Would you like some sugar with your mortgage?
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest rate rise has serious consequences for consumers and investors. There can be no argument that the RBA’s battle against inflation dominates investment commentary. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary
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Demographic shifts over the balance of this decade
David Buckland
November 2, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I want to discuss two intriguing findings from Deutsche Bank’s report on global demographic shifts. Firstly, we’ll explore the substantial population growth in less developed regions and its potential implications. Secondly, we’ll delve into the aging population in developed markets, their dependence on government pensions, and the resulting consequences. Many commodities, both construction-related and agricultural, as well as healthcare should benefit from the aggressive shift in demographics. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Rally in the offing? Canaccord’s market strategist weighs in
Roger Montgomery
November 1, 2023
In a recent briefing, Canaccord’s seasoned stock market strategist outlined his perspective on the current market environment. Amidst concerns of an impending recession and financial stress, there’s a silver lining that might lead to a market rally. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The last call
Roger Montgomery
October 30, 2023
Last week, I participated in Ausbiz’s ‘The last call,’ a casual panel chat where we discussed our current perspectives on both the Australian and global markets. We also delved into the topic of the ‘magnificent seven,’ with a particular focus on their integration of AI into their products. Additionally, we explored how investors should approach investments in the AI sector. If you’re interested in learning more, I encourage you to listen to the full panel discussion where we covered even more insights. You can watch the discussion here: The last call
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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Is it time to reconsider investing in an ASX 200 ETF?
Roger Montgomery
October 26, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I explore why the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index has shown no capital growth in the last 16 years. Australia’s taxation system is a unique creature. It heavily incentivises dividends mainly through the mechanism of franking credits. But is it time to reconsider some of your investments? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.
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Paul Tudor Jones another bearish investor publicises their concerns
Roger Montgomery
October 25, 2023
A conga-line of commentators have spoken out about the risks associated with equity markets right now. Many of the dangers cited are, however, already well known and, in some cases, have been in existence for years if not decades. Relying on these conditions to inspire a market sell-off is tantamount to predicting when other investors will also start to worry about them. Given they are already in existence and well known, guessing when, and if, sentiment will shift and broadly agree with the commentators highlighting the issue is prone to error. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary
