Global markets
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Does positive U.S. data mean it’s time to invest again?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2022
Recent U.S. data is confirming our thesis from the start of the year – that inflation will peak, the pace of rate increases will slow and eventually stop, and a new bull market will inevitably begin. To my mind, this points to one conclusion: it’s time to invest again. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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From the U.S. Fed’s own mouth
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2022
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Dr Chris Waller spoke at the UBS Australasia conference here in Sydney recently on Monday 14 November 2022. The financial media reported Waller telling attendees “to take a deep breath” after a lower-than-expected inflation print, of 7.7 per cent, the week before, triggered a near-record daily share market move. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Don’t get too comfortable: Bridgewater says there’s more pain ahead
Roger Montgomery
November 8, 2022
With U.S. and Australian equities having fallen for almost a year, many investors are starting to wonder if this bear market is coming to an end. After all, the average length of a bear market is 9.5 months, according to Investopedia. So, we’re getting close, right? Apparently not, say the analysts at Bridgewater Associates, the giant hedge fund started by Ray Dalio. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why investors should keep an eye on the Fed
Roger Montgomery
November 2, 2022
How quickly the tables have turned. Although equity markets are in the doldrums, they’ve bounced strongly since a few U.S. Federal Reserve officials intimated that the pace of rate rises could soon moderate. But there’s another issue that’s possibly even more important for long-term investors: quantitative tightening. Since the Fed began to shrink the size of its balance sheet, share markets have collapsed and demand for ‘safe’ assets such as long dated treasuries has surged. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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What will roar when the USD eventually reverses?
Roger Montgomery
October 20, 2022
There is no question, as a consequence of the pandemic central banks employed radical unconventional monetary policy, alongside equally radical fiscal policy. In an ideal world, there would be no consequences, however every action must have a reaction. The reaction, with a substantial lag, of course, is inflation. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why it pays to keep an eye on central bank policy
Roger Montgomery
September 19, 2022
The correlation between money supply and equity market returns has never been clearer. Right now, central banks are intent on fighting inflation by hiking interest rates and shrinking their balance sheets – which has led to the current market sell-off. But when central banks change tack, we should see markets rally once more. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Beware of a head fake, warns Goldman Sachs
Roger Montgomery
August 26, 2022
When it comes to investing, a head fake is an increase or decrease in market performance that is quickly followed by a shift in the opposite direction. And with the market bouncing off recent lows, that’s exactly what the analysts at Goldman Sachs are warning could soon occur as investors realise they became too excited too soon. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Growth stocks could rebound if inflation turns out to be “transitory” after all
Roger Montgomery
August 3, 2022
Since bravely declaring that inflation would be “transitory” the Chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, has been ridiculed for being so wrong. After all, we’ve since seen inflation exceed initial estimates and be more persistent than anticipated. But now it seems inflation could be transitory after all. And that augers well for quality growth stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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The size of the hangover usually corresponds with the size of the party!
David Buckland
June 22, 2022
Is this upcoming economic slowdown going to be a minor flesh-wound or a significant recession? At Montgomery Investment Management, we are receiving a lot of inquiry about adding to investments (minor flesh wound) versus a significant recession (the bear market has a long way to run). continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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A forecast slowdown is not a recession
Roger Montgomery
June 6, 2022
Most economists are forecasting a domestic and global economic slowdown. According to the UCLA Anderson Forecast, economic obstacles, including the Russia–Ukraine war, China’s COVID lockdowns, supply chain bottlenecks and labor shortages, and the consequent inflationary pressures on both finished goods and raw materials are well known, and in some cases becoming entrenched. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
