Global markets
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What does the U.S. yield curve tell us about recessions?
Roger Montgomery
March 16, 2023
Today, the vast majority of the U.S. yield curve is negatively sloped. Every time this has happened in the past, a recession soon followed. This is no doubt troubling for those adversely affected. But, as an investor, I am not unduly concerned – any market turmoil could present opportunities to invest in quality businesses at bargain prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Another U.S. Bank fails overnight. Now it’s three.
Roger Montgomery
March 13, 2023
Everyone’s talking about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) – the largest bank failure since the global financial crisis – and debating whether it’s the start of another financial crisis. There’s Bill Ackman on one side of the Twitterverse, suggesting more banks will collapse like dominos, while on the other side, there’s U.S. President Joe Biden, who points to the safeguards introduced after the global financial crisis to stop another financial crisis from occurring again. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Financial Services, Global markets.
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The market suffered a serious case of sticker shock overnight
Roger Montgomery
March 8, 2023
Stick.er’-Shock’, noun. shock or dismay experienced by the potential buyers of a particular product on discovering its high or increased price. The market suffered a serious case of sticker shock overnight after the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, addressed the U.S. Senate Banking Committee in the first of two hearings on Capitol Hill this week, opening the door to raising rates higher and faster than recently anticipated. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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Don’t bet on a U.S. recession in 2023
Roger Montgomery
March 1, 2023
After a 4.65 per cent increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that during the pandemic, many home buyers locked in fixed-rate 30-year mortgages at ultra-low rates, and they are thus unaffected by recent rate rises. If I’m right, the U.S. economy might avoid a recession in 2023. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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Distracted by sentiment? You’ve missed 16 per cent!
Roger Montgomery
February 17, 2023
Over the last six months, we have provided a growing list of arguments favouring investment in equities. We have shown the compression of P/E ratios of 2022 rendered high-quality companies cheap, and we’ve revealed arithmetic demonstrating investors will receive a return commensurate with the earnings growth rate of the company they buy even if stocks don’t become popular again. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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What can we expect from markets in 2023?
Scott Phillips
January 20, 2023
The calendar year of 2022 proved to be a tough one for most investors. In fact, it is only the third time in the last 100 years that both equities and bonds have recorded a down year together (those years being 1931, 1969 and now 2022). Bonds, which usually provide a cushioning effect for portfolios in times of equity market weakness proved ineffective as inflation soared, pushing bond yields higher and bond prices lower. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Macquarie sees the outlook for Australia and the U.S.
Roger Montgomery
December 15, 2022
In two recent blogs, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian and U.S. economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the views of Macquarie Bank. Their forecasts for the ASX100 are particularly noteworthy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How Goldman Sachs sees the outlook for the U.S. economy
Roger Montgomery
December 14, 2022
In a recent blog, we outlined the views of Goldman Sachs strategists on the Australian economic outlook, and the implications for investors. In this blog, we turn to the U.S. Given Goldman Sachs’s close relationship with the U.S. Federal Reserve, their views are certainly worth reading – particularly in relation to the likely direction of interest rates. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Does positive U.S. data mean it’s time to invest again?
Roger Montgomery
December 8, 2022
Recent U.S. data is confirming our thesis from the start of the year – that inflation will peak, the pace of rate increases will slow and eventually stop, and a new bull market will inevitably begin. To my mind, this points to one conclusion: it’s time to invest again. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Global markets.
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From the U.S. Fed’s own mouth
Roger Montgomery
November 28, 2022
U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Dr Chris Waller spoke at the UBS Australasia conference here in Sydney recently on Monday 14 November 2022. The financial media reported Waller telling attendees “to take a deep breath” after a lower-than-expected inflation print, of 7.7 per cent, the week before, triggered a near-record daily share market move. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.
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