Energy / Resources
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China’s steel production jumps 10 million tonnes
David Buckland
April 27, 2016
According to the World Steel Association, global production for the March Quarter 2016 was 385.7 million tonnes, down 3.6 per cent year on year from 400.3 million tonnes. China’s production for the March Quarter 2016 was 192.0 million tonnes, down 3.2 per cent year on year from 198.4 million tonnes. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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What could blow up next?
Roger Montgomery
April 26, 2016
Experience in financial markets has taught us that while we cannot predict markets or prices we do know that they frequently move in a way that causes pain for the majority. Even Buffett and Munger observed this when they noted the stock market is designed to transfer money from the impatient to the patient. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Foreign Currency, Insightful Insights.
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Can you trust a progressive dividend policy?
David Buckland
February 26, 2016
With the release of their interim results for the half year to 31 December 2015, the Board of Directors at BHP Billiton Limited suddenly realised they weren’t overseeing a toll road business, which typically raises its prices by a few per cent per annum, and finally disbanded their “progressive dividend policy”. After paying out US$0.62 per half-year in each of September 2014, March 2015 and September 2015, BHP’s upcoming interim dividend has been cut 74 per cent to US$0.16 per share. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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The Canaries in the Coal Mine
David Buckland
February 10, 2016
The severe decline in the commodities complex associated with slower economic growth, particularly from China, has seen Emerging Markets selling their holdings of US Treasuries in order to stop their currencies declining too rapidly. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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The Steel Bears Are Winning – Part 2
David Buckland
February 5, 2016
Back on 16 March 2015, the conclusion from my blog entitled “China Dumping Steel Is A Cause For Concern” was global steel production had already reached a turning point. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Mean reversion
Russell Muldoon
December 5, 2015
A lot has been written about the woes of the resources sector recently with a similar amount of energy spent trying to work out when is the right time to expect ‘mean reversion’. A simple theory that although sounds complex, really just suggests that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average as time periods are extended. Given the resource sector has been a material underperformer of late, the theory suggests you should reallocate a portion of your portfolio to such businesses in the expectation (or hope) that if such an event occurs, recent underperformance will lead to outperformance.
Sounds good in theory.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Australia’s most successful resource service company
David Buckland
November 18, 2015
Australia’s most successful Resource service company, Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND), has seen its share price decline by 75 per cent from $28.50 in February 2013 to the current $6.80. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Know Your Limits
Tim Kelley
October 20, 2015
Here’s a striking chart. It tracks the share price of BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) over the past five years, together with the average analyst forecast for BHP’s FY16 Earnings Per Share (EPS) during that period. Unsurprisingly, the two have moved together. Also, changes to analyst forecasts have tended to follow changes to the share price. You might think it should be the other way around, but that’s a discussion for another time. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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The Great China Slowdown (Part 2)
David Buckland
October 2, 2015
I have previously discussed China’s Industrial Profits declined 8.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, with the biggest fall concentrated in coal, oil and metals, according to the National Bureau of statistics. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
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Servicing debt after commodity prices have collapsed
David Buckland
October 1, 2015
Teck Resources, Canada’s largest diversified mining company, has been one of the larger “short positions” held in the Montaka Global Fund, so it was no surprise to the team at Montgomery when the credit rating of the miner was recently cut by Moody’s to junk bond status. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights.
