Energy / Resources
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Mean reversion
Russell Muldoon
December 5, 2015
A lot has been written about the woes of the resources sector recently with a similar amount of energy spent trying to work out when is the right time to expect ‘mean reversion’. A simple theory that although sounds complex, really just suggests that prices and returns eventually move back towards the mean or average as time periods are extended. Given the resource sector has been a material underperformer of late, the theory suggests you should reallocate a portion of your portfolio to such businesses in the expectation (or hope) that if such an event occurs, recent underperformance will lead to outperformance.
Sounds good in theory.
by Russell Muldoon Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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Outlook for Chinese steel: thumbs up or thumbs down?
Andrew Macken
November 19, 2015
Sometimes a picture tells a thousand words. This week, Macquarie published the latest instalment of their China Steel Survey that has been tracking Chinese steel sentiment since mid-2011. The question is simple: “Are you positive or negative on the market over the next three months?” continue…
by Andrew Macken Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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Australia’s most successful resource service company
David Buckland
November 18, 2015
Australia’s most successful Resource service company, Monadelphous Group Limited (ASX: MND), has seen its share price decline by 75 per cent from $28.50 in February 2013 to the current $6.80. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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Too early to call the bottom on commodity cycle
Andrew Macken
October 30, 2015
For Australians, forecasting commodity prices is as much a national pastime as predicting the winner of the Rugby World Cup. In this column published in the Herald Sun, Andrew Macken discusses the significant decline in commodity prices over the past year. Have we reached the bottom of the cycle or will prices fall further still?
Click on the image below to read his piece entitled “Too early to call the bottom on commodity cycle”.
You can read all of the team’s press articles through browsing our media library, view more articles here.by Andrew Macken Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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Know Your Limits
Tim Kelley
October 20, 2015
Here’s a striking chart. It tracks the share price of BHP Billiton (ASX: BHP) over the past five years, together with the average analyst forecast for BHP’s FY16 Earnings Per Share (EPS) during that period. Unsurprisingly, the two have moved together. Also, changes to analyst forecasts have tended to follow changes to the share price. You might think it should be the other way around, but that’s a discussion for another time. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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The Great China Slowdown (Part 2)
David Buckland
October 2, 2015
I have previously discussed China’s Industrial Profits declined 8.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, with the biggest fall concentrated in coal, oil and metals, according to the National Bureau of statistics. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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Servicing debt after commodity prices have collapsed
David Buckland
October 1, 2015
Teck Resources, Canada’s largest diversified mining company, has been one of the larger “short positions” held in the Montaka Global Fund, so it was no surprise to the team at Montgomery when the credit rating of the miner was recently cut by Moody’s to junk bond status. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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The Great China Slowdown
David Buckland
September 29, 2015
China’s Industrial Profits declined by 8.8 per cent in August from a year earlier, with the biggest fall concentrated in coal, oil and metals according to the National Bureau of Statistics. For the eight months to August 2015, profits from coal, oil and metals companies declined by 65 per cent, 67 per cent and 52 per cent, respectively, on a year on year basis. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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ACCC Gas Inquiry – Preliminary Findings
Ben MacNevin
September 17, 2015
We have previously warned of the perfect storm looming in Australia’s LNG market, as substantial export commitments threaten domestic supply. The ACCC has launched an inquiry into this opaque market, and the preliminary findings suggest the market has changed dramatically. continue…
by Ben MacNevin Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
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The transition of Evolution Mining
David Buckland
September 17, 2015
While gold companies generally don’t meet our quality requirements at Montgomery, I thought I would nevertheless focus on a company going through a significant transformation. Evolution Mining (ASX: EVN), led by gold entrepreneur Jake Klein, has completed two significant acquisitions in recent months. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights
