Economics
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Hello 2023
David Buckland
January 3, 2023
Many commentators point to the twelve months to December 2022 as being one of the toughest annual periods for the performance of the share market and the bond market for several decades. This was led by the severe sell-off in Government Bonds, aggressive tightening of most Central Banks’ official cash rate and the 33.1 per cent decline in the US-tech heavy Nasdaq Index. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Why the Fed’s war on inflation could lead to bargains for investors
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2022
On Friday at Jackson Hole in the U.S., Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, spoke for eight minutes and 38 seconds reinforcing the idea that restrictive monetary policy is likely to be maintained for some time – all in the name of fighting inflation. World markets quickly went into reverse. The good news is that savvy investors may now get another chance to buy quality businesses at attractive prices. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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Get set for weaker employment data
Stuart Jackson
July 19, 2022
Australia is currently enjoying the most buoyant labour market conditions since the 1970s. But how long can the low unemployment rate persist? As the saying goes, if something can’t go on forever, sooner or later it must stop. And with consumer and business sentiment both waning, surely it is just a matter of time. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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RBNZ – fifth tightening since October 2021: 0.25 per cent to 2.0 per cent
David Buckland
May 26, 2022
As I have detailed previously, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has been relatively pro-active in its tightening cycle, commencing on 6 October 2021 and taking their official cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 2.0 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Financial Services.
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New Zealand; The canary in the coal mine
David Buckland
May 16, 2022
I have been impressed by the relative proactive leadership of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) in commencing their official cash rate tightening cycle well ahead of most other countries. Commencing on 6 October 2021 (as well as 24 November 2021, 23 February 2022, and 13 April 2022), the RBNZ have increased their cash rate from 0.25 per cent to 1.50 per cent on four separate occasions. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics.
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Higher interest rates equal lower PEs
David Buckland
May 3, 2022
When I joined the financial market in the 1980’s as a young graduate, I was given a simple rule from an old-timer which went something like this: “Son, the market PE plus long-term inflationary expectations should equal 20.” At the time, Australia’s inflation rate was coming down from 12 per cent, and the market PE approximated 8x. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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It’s time to take advantage of share price falls
Roger Montgomery
May 3, 2022
The price-to-earnings ratios of many quality businesses have fallen sharply over the last six months. In many cases, the falls were justified. Now that valuations have dropped, I believe investors have a far better chance of making attractive returns. The proviso, of course, is that you buy businesses that grow their earnings. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation.
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US inflation and the pressure on asset valuations
David Buckland
January 24, 2022
Over calendar 2021, US inflation jumped from a very tame 1.4 per cent to a worrying 7.0 per cent, the highest level recorded in four decades. The last time US inflation was at this level, the yield on the US ten-year Government Bonds was 13.5 per cent. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Two reasons this bull market is set to continue
Roger Montgomery
February 7, 2020
Since early 2009, soaring global markets have made shares an extremely rewarding place to invest. With profits likely to keep recovering, and interest rates and inflation likely to stay low, I see no reason why this bull market will not continue. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Farewell 2019, Hello 2020
David Buckland
January 2, 2020
After recording an excellent performance in the June 2019 half-year, both the US Nasdaq and S&P 500 led the way in the December 2019 half-year with a return of 12.1 per cent and 9.8 per cent, respectively, for a return over calendar 2019 of 35.2 per cent (US Nasdaq) and 28.9 per cent (S&P 500). And this excludes dividends. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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