articles by Tim Kelley
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WHAT DRIVES INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE?
Tim Kelley
February 2, 2018
We recently undertook an analysis to try to better understand the structure and behaviour of the equity market, with a view to identifying cause and effect relationships that drive investment performance. While the work is ongoing, some interesting early findings are emerging.
Continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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Is Bitcoin a rational investment?
Tim Kelley
December 15, 2017
Bitcoin has enjoyed an extraordinary surge in both value and public attention recently. The chart below maps the rise in the price of a Bitcoin in USD over the last few years, and a similar chart could probably be plotted for the number of column inches, the number of internet searches and the number of experts confidently proclaiming it to be either a speculative bubble, or the gold of the future. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Foreign Currency.
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Positioning for an electric vehicle future
Tim Kelley
November 24, 2017
As we have written previously, it seems reasonable to expect that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) will increase markedly in years to come. Within a handful of years, it is thought that advancing technology will make EVs competitive with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles on a lifecycle cost basis, and at that point they should start to become a meaningful fraction of total vehicle sales. Looking further, due to their very low operating costs, EVs lend themselves to Transport as a Service (TaaS) applications, and the use of autonomous electric vehicles in these applications has the potential to offer dramatically lower transport costs compared with current alternatives. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Technology & Telecommunications.
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Value investing in the age of machine learning
Tim Kelley
November 14, 2017
The advent of machine-driven investing means that computers can quickly pounce on stocks that the market seems to have mispriced. This development has raised the bar for value investors seeking to outperform the market. But it’s not the beginning of the end for human stock-pickers.
Continue…by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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Is Telstra (finally) cheap?
Tim Kelley
October 30, 2017
Only 12 months back, Telstra (ASX: TLS) shares were trading at around $5.00. The fall since then has been precipitous. Which has got a lot of investors asking: does it finally represent good value? Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies, Editor's Pick, Technology & Telecommunications.
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Why it’s time to invest in quality businesses
Tim Kelley
October 19, 2017
For the past 18 months, Australian investors have seen a ‘junk rally’ in which lower quality businesses have outperformed. But our research shows that quality is now better value than it has been for many years. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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Is high dividend yield always a good thing?
Tim Kelley
October 10, 2017
In this week’s video insight Tim discusses something that a lot of investors are interested in, especially those investors that rely on their share portfolios for regular income, and that’s dividend yield.
by Tim Kelley Posted in Video Insights.
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Does it make sense to own Wesfarmers?
Tim Kelley
October 10, 2017
Followers of our blog may raise an eyebrow at the sight of Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) recently finding its way into the top ten holdings in The Montgomery Fund. Over the years, we have written various articles on the headwinds facing the Australian supermarket industry, with a particular focus on the rise of discounters like Aldi, and more recently we have observed that Woolworths has taken steps to reverse a long trend of weak like-for-like sales performance, and begun to retake market share. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Companies.
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Quality and patience are key
Tim Kelley
October 4, 2017
Humans are hard-wired, it seems, with an affinity for narrative over data. When the equity market falls over the course of a day, for example, we want an explanation for what happened. Something vague and unprovable like “profit taking” will do nicely. This explanation offers no real insight into the market, or what it might do tomorrow, but it accounts for the behaviour in familiar and immediate terms, and any explanation is preferable to a shrug of the shoulders or a dry, statistical account of market variability. Not as honest perhaps, but certainly more comforting. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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How should you read a broker report?
Tim Kelley
September 21, 2017
Broker reports are one of the most widely-used information sources for equity investors of all stripes, and there is no doubt they can be a very useful source of background information on an industry or company. In addition, they provide financial forecasts, valuation estimates and, of course, the analyst’s overall conclusion: buy, sell or hold. Continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Investing Education.
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