Roger Montgomery is the Founder and Chairman of Montgomery Investment Management. Roger has over three decades of experience in funds management and related activities, including equities analysis, equity and derivatives strategy, trading and stockbroking. Prior to establishing Montgomery, Roger held positions at Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming, BT (Australia) Limited and Merrill Lynch.
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Two themes seem to be gaining traction amongst Value.able Graduates at the moment.
1. Value is becoming harder to find (yes, I agree), and
2. Questions related to share buybacks have increased remarkably
This afternoon I will address the growing problem of finding value (and save buybacks for another day).
As I scan the market for great quality businesses trading at large discounts to my estimate of their Value.able intrinsic value, I am finding fewer and fewer opportunities. And when it comes to ‘small caps’, the prospects are few and far between.
On Peter Switzer’s show last Thursday a caller asked me what was good value in the small cap space. I define ‘small cap’ as anything between $300 million and $2 billion (below that is micro caps and nano caps). The fact is, only four or five of my highest Montgomery Quality Rated (MQR) businesses (think A1, A2, etc) are cheap. And most of them you already know about.
Forge and Matrix Composite are still below rising intrinsic values (more on those soon), and Cabcharge and ARB Corporation are just below intrinsic value. The remaining value is in much smaller companies and of course, the risk when investing in this space can be much higher.
Many Value.able Graduates have commented that investing in these micro and nano cap stocks is akin to scraping the bottom of the barrel. Whilst I tend to agree, I also believe that when it comes to investing, little is more satisfying than discovering an extraordinary business beyond the reach of the managed funds that have self-imposed restraints and must only invest in the top 200 or 300 companies.
There is merit in the concept of investing in small businesses that have the potential to become large. And there are profits to accrue when they do. Before you dismiss this idea, keep in mind that many of the large companies dominating Australia’s competitive landscape today were once small. Admittedly, in many cases they were small while they were buried in private ownership or private equity ownership, but in some examples they were small and grew to be large whilst they were listed. Can you think of a few examples? The Value.able community has shared a few here at my blog.
Given Australia’s small population, the big businesses that dominate the investment landscape are mature and have to make smart decisions and continually reinvent themselves to continue to grow. Think about Harvey Norman. Its failing is not in the fact that the economy is slow or that consumers can buy cheaper goods overseas. Its failing is that it is a tired old concept that has lost its mojo. The company has failed to change and failed to reinvent itself. Its own failure has seen it fall victim to the JB Hi-Fi’s and the buy-online-from-overseas-cheaper.com merchants of the world.
So whilst scouring for smaller companies may seem like bottom-fishing, there is merit in catching the smaller fish. And for those investors who prefer to stay clear, patience, bank bills and term deposits are the solution.
Far better is it to be in the safety of cash than in inferior investments, such as companies trading at premiums to intrinsic value.
Forewarned is forearmed. And to be forewarned, don’t miss out on your copy of Value.able. As I told Peter last week, there aren’t too many Second Edition copies left.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, author and fund manager, 28 February 2011.
It has been six months since my last BHP update. With so much smoke surrounding the half-year results, I thought it worth reviewing whether anything – particularly my Value.able valuation, had changed.
You may recall back on 31 August 2010 last year BHPs shares were trading at $42.30. At the time my Value.able intrinsic valuation for BHP was $45-$50 per share. As I write today the shares are trading at $46.09 (they have traded as high as $47.63). Gains of 8.2% over the past 6 months are satisfying, but not spectacular. Gains in MLD, MCE, FGE and DCG have been more impressive.
Since I shared my insights, BHP has of course announced their half-year results and exceeded all prior forecasts. Fifty seven per cent earnings growth was forecast for BHP and 50% per cent for the resource sector as a whole in 2011. This was eclipsed by 71.5 per cent earnings growth.
Booming commodities and record Iron Ore and base metal prices, which account for roughly half of the group’s revenue (see table below), has boosted their result. Having moved away from yearly pricing to a monthly pricing benchmark, BHP has been able to take full advantage of rapid commodity price appreciation.
BHP’s reported revenue from Iron Ore sales in FY11 was up 109.5 per cent. Given its largely fixed production costs, Iron Ore was also the largest contributor from an EBIT perspective, with a 177.90 per cent increase. This is the happy side of operating leverage, which I have discussed previously. And remember, Iron Ore is China’s second largest import, after crude oil.
With growth rates and margins of this magnitude, analysts have become even more bullish on our resource sector. Earnings growth for 2011 is now forecast to be 60 per cent (previously 50 per cent) – that’s a 20 per cent increase in just six months. Estimates for 2012 are 30-40 per cent.
Compare this to earnings growth forecasts for the Industrials Sector. The difference of 10 per cent clearly indicates where Australia’s economy will derive its strength.
But can it last? I have said many times that I have no predictive ability. I will leave that for others to determine.
I will however take onboard recent comments from Marius Kloppers, who stated that high Iron Ore pricing should continue for a further 6-9 months. Whilst the Iron Ore market remains in tight supply, I note the many expansion projects currently underway will swell supplies from 2014 onwards – an excellent example of how boom-time profits entice others to enter the market and compete – the very definition of a commodity.
Over the longer-term, BHP’s aggressive $80b growth plan suggests confidence in the markets in which it operates. More importantly, $80b should give investors in mining services businesses cause to celebrate!
With analysts becoming more bullish and being contrarian by nature, I’m more comfortable adopting a conservative approach when it comes to resource companies. So while others continue upgrading their numbers and forecasts based on current market pricing, I will retain my previous AUD $22b profit forecast (hopefully this is conservative enough) for 2011 and my Value.able valuation of AUD $45-$50.
As always, I will also further my conservative approach by seeking substantial margins of safety. There are some A1 opportunities available at present, however they are the exception rather than the rule.
Posted by Roger Montgomery, author and fund manager, 24 February 2011.
ON ANOTHER NOTE… The SMSF Review, along with Alan’s Eureka Report and my team, are delighted to announce an event where 100 per cent of the net proceeds will be donated to those affected by the recent spate of natural disasters. The SMSF Strategy Event – for charity, includes some of the country’s most respected Self Managed Superannuation Fund experts. Tickets are $77 and can be purchased online at www.thesmsfreview.com.au. Click here to view the full event brochure. If you are based in Sydney and manage your own super fund, I encourage you to join me at this very special event.
In this appearance on Your Money Your Call, Roger Montgomery tells investors Atlas Iron scores highly on his Montgomery Quality Rating (MQR) but cautions its future is reliant upon the price of iron ore. Roger also reveals his 2012 forecast Value.able valuation for small appliance manufacturer Breville and shares his concerns about the future growth prospects of The Reject Shop. Watch the interview.
Roger Montgomery shared his insights into the future prospects of Karoon Gas, Matrix Composite & Engineering, Forge, Bell Financial and Think Smart with viewers of Your Money Your Call on the Sky Business Channel. Of these small cap stocks, which scores Roger’s highest Montgomery Quality Rating, A1? Roger also comments on the impact of coal seam gas and why airlines and car manufacturers erode the wealth of their shareholders. Watch the interview.
Matrix is a stock with the lot. It was added to Roger Montgomery’s Value Line portfolio in August 2010. Since that time, and with Middle East tensions fuelling the price of oil, MCE is soaring. Its competitive advantages combined with deep-sea exploration expertise put this A1 stock in a league of its own. Read Roger’s article at www.eurekareport.com.au.
Unlike many stock market investors, Roger Montgomery isn’t distracted by geo political concerns or freak weather conditions. Rather, he looks at sentimental reasons that impact the long-term price of oil. In this interview Roger also reveals an A1 MQR stock trading below his estimate of its Value.able intrinsic value. Listen to Podcast.
As more Australian companies start to pile up cash, the mergers and acquisitions buzz is sure to heat up. Roger Montgomery believes that less flashy share buybacks and dividend initiatives are often a better bet for increased shareholder returns and nominates some of his favourite A1 businesses. Read article.
Put simply, if you want a high return on your money, Transurban probably isn’t for you. Its success hinges on revenues going up and interest rates remaining stable or declining. Rather than paying down its existing debt, Transurban persistently refinances and the amount that still needs to be re-financed before 2020 now exceeds $3.5 billion. Like airlines, investing in Transurban is unlikely to put you on the fast lane to high returns. The stock does not look cheap and in Roger Montgomery’s opinion, there are plenty of better (A1) and less risky options out there. Read Roger’s article.
Shareholders of McMillan Shakespeare,Australia’s biggest provider of salary packaging, continue to sing “Let the good times roll.” But not everyone is thrilled with McMillan Shakespeare’s current market valuation, including well know Australian Fund Manager and Author, Roer Montgomery. Roger first penned his concerns about MMS at his blog back in August 2010. MMS is now above $7.00 compared to Roger’s Value.able intrinsic value of $2.64, there is also the problem of increased debt following MMS’ acquisition of Interleasing. Read article.
Well-known Australian commentator, Roger Montgomery penned his concerns about MMS in his blog back in August. Being a value investor it is easy to see why he is less enthusiastic with MMS above $7.00, than $2.64, when he first wrote his opinion on McMillan Shakespeare. Montgomery was also unhappy with debt levels that MMS took on after its acquisition of Interleasing.
