The market is split on the investment case for consumer discretionary stocks. On the one hand, rate rises are designed to cool demand, and squeeze household cash flows and balance sheets. On the other hand, the labour market is strong, incomes are high, and people have savings buffers to draw upon. Roger joins Ausbiz to discuss the signs across the domestic and international economies that consumer demand is about slow. Watch: Why Roger is underweight consumer discretionary

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Fintech-based lenders have emerged since the introduction of the peer-to-peer platform Zopa in the United Kingdom in 2005. Fintech lenders aim to reduce friction in the borrowing process for their customers, reducing the turnaround time from application to funding and offer products which best suit the borrowing needs of the customer. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Financial Services.

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Reading between the spreadsheet lines, the annual earnings season has given a few hints of what is to come for corporate Australia and the broader economy over the next year. The annual results of Australia’s top 200 listed companies is a scorecard of how they performed over the last 12 months, as well as what they’re hoping to achieve for the year ahead. Every reporting season has a few losers.

Roger Montgomery warns some retailers could be in for more pain as inflation rises and people refrain from spending. “Another after effect from COVID has been the persistent supply chain issues that companies are facing, and we saw companies like City Chic, Lovisa and Supercheap Auto responding to those supply chain difficulties by investing more in inventory,” he observed.

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Rachel Pupazzoni: Corporate Australia just received a glowing profit report card, but the outlook is not as rosy

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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The RBA has raised rates for the fifth month in a row bringing the cash rate to 2.35% with the expectation of reining in inflation by the end of the year. Largely in line with market expectations, the RBA raised the cash rate by 50 basis points. This is the highest cash rate since early 2015. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Market commentary.

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There are no doubts some extraordinary businesses exist in the Australian consumer discretionary sector. Names like ARB, Nick Scali, JB Hi-Fi and Lovisa jump to mind as soon as talk turns to the consumer. But as we examine the shape of our portfolios, one glaring active weight is the underweighting we have to consumer discretionary companies. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Editor's Pick.

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Montgomery Investment Management unveiled the second fund to come out of its partnership with Aura Group, the Aura Core Income Fund.

Montgomery chair Roger Montgomery said “I am delighted Montgomery Investment Management can now offer a high-quality income solution for our retail clients and investors in partnership with Aura Credit Holdings working with Brett Craig, the portfolio manager.”

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Chloe Walker: Montgomery, Aura Group launch new income fund

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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In this video, Brett Craig and Roger Montgomery introduce private credit, the opportunity it offers for stable monthly income while seeking to preserve capital, why SMEs seek funding outside of the main banks, where the Aura Core Income Fund invests and how it makes a return for investors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Editor's Pick, Montgomery News and Updates.

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Australia’s largest companies rebounded strongly after two years of pandemic interruption, achieving a 56.3 per cent uplift in aggregate statutory profits over FY22.

Speaking to the Inside Investor, Roger Montgomery said there was no shortage of themes impacting earnings this year including inventory build for retailers, COVID-19 impacts, floods off the east coast, interest rate hikes, supply-chain constraints, war in Ukraine, labour shortages and soaring inflation.

Interestingly, aggregate cash levels fell from the highs reached in February. Part of this is explained by outflows for dividends declared in 2021, but it also highlights the aforementioned cost pressures including payments for additional inventory and higher costs for staff absenteeism. Subsequently, 27 per cent of businesses cut dividends, above the historic average.

Commenting on earnings season, Montgomery said results were “roughly in line” with his expectations.

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Earnings season: ASX profits boomed by 56pc

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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