In a May 2025 letter to clients entitled ‘Brace for Impact’, Perpetual Asset Management Australia (ASX:PPT) echoed the cautionary sentiments of legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones, warning investors to “brace for impact” as markets fail to price in an economic slowdown already underway.

Their letter highlights a precarious optimism in U.S. equity markets, despite looming threats from trade wars, elevated valuations, and diminishing diversification from traditional safe havens like U.S. treasury bonds. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets.

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In response to Life360’s (ASX:360) March 2025 Quarterly update released on Monday 12 May, its share price has jumped 18 per cent from $23.58 to $27.85 in the past two trading days. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Stocks We Like.

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Last week, REA Group delivered a broadly in-line third quarter result, highlighting the resilience of its pricing power and disciplined cost management, even as listing volumes soften into the final quarter.

Revenue for the period rose 12 per cent year-on-year to A$374 million, essentially matching market expectations, while earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) excluding associates increased 12 per cent to A$199 million, just shy of consensus estimates. Free cash flow was robust at A$132 million, marking a 19 per cent year-on-year increase. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Property.

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Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) (formerly Woodside Petroleum Ltd) is Australia’s largest independent dedicated oil and gas exploration and production company. With its share price down 46 per cent since September 2023, it might pay investors to understand the transformation occurring at the company and the reason it is now a three per cent position in The Montgomery Fund and a 2.3 per cent position in The Montgomery [Private] Fund. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Energy / Resources, Stocks We Like.

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With the U.S. economic picture deteriorating, you might be wondering why the market is rallying. It’s simple if you remember that hope springs eternal.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s first chaotic days in office have been economically disruptive, thanks to a whirlwind 143 executive orders, a tornado of declared emergencies, and tariffs heralding a trade war – particularly the 135 per cent levy on Chinese imports. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The recent relief rally in the S&P 500 is welcome, but is it sustainable? The stock market’s vulnerability is a weakness in Trump’s arsenal against China, and it’s also a barometer of his popularity. Meanwhile, the market and the U.S. economy are heavily reliant on consumer spending, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for approximately 70 per cent of U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I cover two major headlines that hit papers this week: Labor’s sweeping win in the federal election and Warren Buffett’s retirement as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

Labor’s second-term agenda is set to reshape sectors like transport, energy, healthcare, and housing. With budget plans and reform drawing the line between winners and losers. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

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The global economy faces a complex landscape as trade tensions between the United States and China persist, threatening economic stability. This week, Ric Deverell, the highly regarded Chief Economist at Macquarie, shared insights on the potential for a U.S. recession, the resilience of China’s economy, and the ripple effects on global markets, including Australia and Europe. Our interpretation of his comments follows, and where data is independently available, we have provided that data along with sources. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Foreign Currency, Global markets, Market commentary.

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