Recent data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the Australian non-bank financing sector alluded to the fact that businesses are continuing to turn to non-bank providers for funding. As evidenced in the graph below, the non-bank share of business credit is trending upwards. Businesses are actively turning to non-bank lenders for bespoke lending solutions and quicker access to capital, in order to maintain momentum and assist with achieving growth. The banking sector continues to be the dominant lender within the residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) market, as the capital requirements enforced by the regulatory framework have favoured this style of lending for the banks. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics.

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In this interview, Richard Hemming and I discussed the promising landscape of small cap investments, highlighting the recent, strong performance of the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. I shared insights on the fund’s strategic positioning and optimistic outlook despite market volatility, emphasising an overweight in growth sectors like technology and consumer discretionary. I also discussed the potential for Australian tech firms and consumer retail strategies, explaining how the economic conditions influence market dynamics. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in On the Internet, Small Caps.

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Whilst Polen Capital, our investment partner in global equities, has been operating since 1979, manages 15 underlying investment strategies, has U.S.$65 billion in funds under management, and over 250 staff world-wide, it is fair to say it is not yet a household name in Australia. Continue…

by Dean Curnow Posted in Polen Capital.

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In this episode of the Fear and Greed Podcast, Sean Aylmer and I discuss the evolving landscape of private credit and its emergence as a viable investment class. I explain how private credit operates outside the traditional banking system and has gained traction due to changes in banking regulations post-GFC. The conversation focuses on debunking myths around private credit, particularly the misconception that high returns necessarily imply high risk. This deep dive into private credit reveals its potential as a key component in investment portfolios, poised to become a more prominent asset class.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Podcast Channel.

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The long-awaited quarterly consumer price index (CPI) figure was reported last week. Over the March quarter, CPI rose by 1.0 per cent, which follows the previous 0.6 per cent December quarter increase. Over the 12 months to March 2024, CPI rose by 3.6 per cent. Whilst the annual rate of inflation is trending downwards, the quarterly figure increased by 0.4 per cent and poses ongoing challenges. Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group.

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In what is perhaps a case of tail wagging the dog, a plunge in electric vehicle (EV) sales in Europe is causing at least one government there to revise the dates by which automotive manufacturers must transition to manufacturing only EVs. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Kids are regularly disappointed – often vocally – when they don’t receive what they want. When those kids become investors, the tantrums they throw can be seen in market reactions to their disappointments. And many investors, forecasters and commentators are predicting a tantrum amid changing expectations for rate cuts in 2024. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market Valuation.

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The chorus of investors who believe the market is due for a correction is growing louder, and the list of reasons is growing longer.

I have some sympathy with the view the market could pull back. I believe there is an ever-present risk of such pullbacks, so if one should emerge, it would not be surprising. Additionally, I have no belief in anyone’s ability to forecast the precise timing of such a pullback consistently, so now could be as good a time as any. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, In the Press.

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