Today on Ausbiz with Juliette Saly, I explained that while low valuations in 2022 set the stage for strong returns, we’re now at the opposite end of the spectrum, with very high price-to-earning ratios (P/Es), elevated enthusiasm (especially around artificial intelligence) – and growing economic and geopolitical uncertainty, all of which point to lower returns and greater volatility in 2026. We’re also seeing signs of speculative excess in the AI thematic, from soaring private valuations to rising constraints around energy and water that are likely to create speed bumps for the sector.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, TV Appearances.

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On this episode of Over the Money Fence, I joined Nicola and Di to reflect on what really shaped markets in 2025, cutting through the noise around artificial intelligence (AI), technology stocks, gold, Bitcoin, inflation and interest rates. I shared my outlook for 2026, including the risks of an AI-led bubble, the growing role of alternative strategies like private credit, and why diversification and quality investing remain essential. We also tackled the most common listener questions and discussed simple, practical steps to help people head into the new year feeling clear, calm and confident. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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With that caveat out of the way, I am reasonably confident we should expect greater volatility and lower returns in 2026. Let me explain why I think that’s a reasonable assessment.

Since 2022, I have suggested that investors maintain a bullish disposition.

This article was first published in The Australian on 04 December 2025. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in In the Press.

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I joined Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle Mornings today to discuss the broader economic backdrop, including why interest rates are likely to remain steady for now, how household spending and cost pressures are shaping the outlook, and why global sharemarkets are being driven less by local conditions and more by international themes such as investment in artificial intelligence (AI), with long-term returns ultimately depending on earnings and business fundamentals.

Tune in from 37:54 to hear the full segment: ABC Newcastle Mornings. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Would you ask a barber whether you need a haircut?

Amid the negative sensationalist media headlines – what Macquarie Chief Economist, Ric Deverell, dubs “click bait”– it’s crucial for investors to filter out the noise and focus on underlying economic and business fundamentals. Speaking on December 4, 2025, at an investor briefing for Macquarie clients, Deverell offered a clear, cautiously optimistic view for 2026, suggesting global growth might very well surprise to the upside, driving a positive outlook for risk assets. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As we farewell the shores of 2025 and sail into 2026, equity investors seem to be shrugging off fears of an artificial intelligence (AI) bubble and are instead betting on a growing U.S. economy, rate cuts, and a broadening of bullish sentiment beyond the AI leaders.

The consensus view is the U.S. economy is settling into a rate of growth that is more modest than last year’s, avoids a recession and could surprise to the upside. Meanwhile, U.S. inflation and employment data are generally seen as supportive of a Federal Reserve rate cut, even though, according to some economists such as Torsten Slock, two-thirds of inflation seems to be demand-driven. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets.

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From South Sea to AI: Artificial Intelligence (AI) companies seem to be asking investors the question: Just how long can growth be built on the question of future returns – and a productivity revolution – that are by no means guaranteed?

The South Sea Bubble of 1720 remains the archetype of a financial mania driven by exotic new ‘tech’, the promise of monopoly returns, and limitless public imagination.

At first, the idea of comparing the South Sea bubble to an AI boom 305 years later seemed far-fetched. AI is not, for example, a Ponzi scheme being promoted by those who fail or refuse to publish financials or forecasts of how profits will be made. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Sir Isaac Newton is enshrined in history as the saint of rational thought. He decoded the laws of gravity, invented calculus, and parsed the rainbow. Yet, in the spring and summer of 1720, the arguably most intelligent man in the British Empire made a series of financial blunders, recorded for posterity, and so catastrophic they have become a cautionary legend in economic and investment history.

Newton’s entanglement with the South Sea Company serves as a stark reminder: in the face of collective delusion and market mania, even a genius can be led astray. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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