Breville Group (ASX: BRG) delivered a concise trading update at its Annual General Meeting yesterday, focusing on the first half of financial year 2026 (1H26) to date. While the commentary was positive on several fronts, ongoing uncertainties remain in the U.S. market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Companies.

History might not repeat, but it rhymes – especially when markets climb to record highs. Indeed, as markets peak, so does collective optimism. Consequently, experts, economists, and central bankers alike tend to downplay the rising risks, anchor to the “new era,” and declare that ‘this time is different’ – the four most dangerous words ever uttered in investing. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

In this video insight, I question whether the trillions being poured into artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure can ever be justified. By 2028, the industry’s hardware and data centre spend could exceed US$3 trillion, yet customers would need to spend over US$3 trillion a year – around 10 per cent of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – to make the math work. Unless adoption and profits scale far faster than history suggests, this AI rocket ship could run out of fuel. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Video Insights.

I am reliably informed it’s one of the bigger trends on TikTok at the moment; miming to a mashup of 4 Non-Blondes’ 1993 song What’s Going On, and Niki Minaj’s Bees in The Trap, created by DJ Auxlord, a college senior studying psychology in Ohio.

On Martin Place in Sydney’s CBD, the viral song blasted from a local’s speaker, its hooks – “bees in the trap, bee, bees in the trap” and “what’s going on” – perfectly juxtaposed with the real bees queuing to buy gold just up the hill at ABC Bullion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

In this week’s video insight, I highlight the folly of buying physical gold amid the recent surge in prices. When people were lining up at Sydney’s bullion stores paying nearly $225,000 per kilo, it signalled a market nearing its peak – exponential rallies like that are rarely sustainable. Beyond timing risk, buying bullion involves steep frictional costs, with a spread of around 7 per cent between buy and sell prices. Since then, gold prices have fallen sharply, leaving many buyers facing losses. If you really want exposure to gold, I argue it’s far more efficient to buy a low-cost exchange-traded fund (ETF) rather than lining up for physical bullion. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Video Insights.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Video Insights.

Yesterday I joined Jess Maguire on ABC’s Statewide Drive to discuss the sharp fall in Meta’s share price after it revealed another huge increase in artificial intelligence (AI) spending. I explained that while Mark Zuckerberg insists the investment will eventually pay off, the scale of AI infrastructure costs – potentially US$3–5 trillion by 2030 – means companies will need extraordinary revenues to justify the outlay. History shows transformative technologies often enrich consumers more than investors, and while today’s firms are profitable – unlike in 1999 – the “build-now, profit-later” mentality risks colliding with commercial reality.

Catch the full episode from 1:43:29 ABC Statewide Drive here.
Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

• LISTEN
• save this article
• POSTED IN Radio.

October 2025 will go down as an extraordinary month for investors. NVIDIA, which has appreciated by over 50 per cent in the first ten months of 2025 and seen its market capitalization exceed US$5 trillion. The aggregate market capitalization of the Magnificent Seven (including Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft and Tesla) hit US$22 trillion, or 37.4 per cent of the S&P 500 and the excitement surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) is palpable. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

• save this article
• POSTED IN Market commentary.

Today on Ausbiz I joined Sue Lannin to discuss the striking similarities between the 2011 iron ore boom and today’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment frenzy. Back then, surging optimism and over-investment in mining services ended abruptly when supply outstripped demand. I’m seeing echoes of that now in AI, with forecasts of trillions in annual spending that don’t appear sustainable or supported by realistic revenue. With companies like Meta and Microsoft already under pressure, I believe we’re nearing the end of this boom as investors start questioning whether the numbers truly add up.

Watch the episode on Ausbiz here: What does the AI Boom have to do with iron ore?

Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

• save this article
• POSTED IN TV Appearances.