Australia’s housing market is under growing pressure, and further declines in property values could affect more than just homeowners. The consequences could extend across household finances, consumer confidence and state government budgets.

If the value of Australia’s 11 million dwellings decline by an average 15.5 per cent from its A$12.8 trillion peak, then up to A$2.0 trillion in paper wealth could be wiped out over the 2026-2027 period. Based on averages, a dwelling worth $1.16 million at its peak could fall below $1.0 million. This fall in value would equate to a decline of $70,000 per Australian in housing wealth. Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Property.

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When you hear people talk about U.S. inflation, a popular narrative is the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is essentially powerless. The argument goes that today’s sticky price pressures are almost entirely driven by outside supply shocks – things like new tariffs, volatile energy costs, and bottlenecks in tech hardware caused by the massive artificial intelligence (AI) investment boom. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Technology & Telecommunications.

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After cutting their cash rates in the latter part of 2024 and 2025, the Central Banks of Australia, the U.S., Europe and New Zealand have recently reversed tack. This is coming at a tricky time for many economies with inflationary expectations and cost of living issues putting additional pressure on consumers, and this is often accompanied by relatively high unemployment in the UK (5.0 per cent), Europe (6.4 per cent), Canada (6.4 per cent) and New Zealand (5.6 per cent). Continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Popular.

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This week, I am back with Nicola and Di for our series Over The Money Fence.

This series aims to help you take control of your finances with clarity and confidence. 

In this episode, we go through the fallout from the federal budget and explain why, despite being sold as a win for young Australians, the changes to negative gearing have actually made it harder for first home buyers to get into the market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Investing Education, Market commentary, Market Valuation, Podcast Channel, Property, Technology & Telecommunications.

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It may initially seem a stretch to claim the financial quality of your retirement beyond 2026 might depend on the outcome of some heroic assumptions about Hyperscaler artificial intelligence (AI) cash flows.

But is it?

Equity markets, and especially investors in U.S. stocks – of which there is a record number investing a record amount – are ignoring a litany of concerns. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Recently, in an AXIOS email with the subject line, “Not too late,” the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote, “The White House, Congress and the country’s leading AI companies have allowed AI to grow faster, stronger, more powerful and wildly lucrative (and dangerous), with no serious effort to control it or spread the benefits beyond the super-wealthy, Axios CEO Jim VandeHei writes in a “Behind the Curtain” column. It’s not too late to change this. But if they all dither, duck, or dance around it, the chances of AI worst-case scenarios will explode, likely early next year, according to almost everyone we talk to privately who truly understands AI.” Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.

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When the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields pierced five per cent on September 14, they reached their highest level since October 2023, and signalled a potential conflict between sovereign debt realities and a relentlessly optimistic equity market. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Global markets, Insightful Insights, Market commentary, Market Valuation.

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In financial markets, it’s said history doesn’t repeat, but it frequently rhymes. The recent bond market moves seem to reflect a market rhyming with the 2023 bond tantrum, threatening to disrupt everything from home mortgages and corporate credit to government financing and equity valuations.

U.S. Treasury yields have broken out of what has widely been described as a multi-year range, pushing the benchmark U.S.10-year yield toward 5.00 per cent. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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