That’s a headline designed to capture your attention. If it has done so, it is highly probable that a crash is one of your fears. And for some people with that fear, the concern is great enough that it has impacted their investing outcomes and returns. For example, they may have held off buying shares in a company that subsequently rocketed higher, simply because you feared the market was due for a correction or crash. You may have also sold a stock too early, even though nothing about the company in which you owned the shares had changed. You simply thought some exogenous event would trigger a broad market correction. And, in a more extreme example, you were right in your prediction about the market falling, but the shares you owned continued to climb. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick.

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In this week’s interview with Paul Turton on ABC Newcastle radio, I discussed how central banks are carefully steering economies towards a soft landing. The reporting season revealed that some retailers, like Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), are losing market share to better-performing competitors. Meanwhile, businesses such as Cash Converters (ASX: CCV) are seeing revenue growth as more individuals pawn items to manage the rising cost of living. Traditional banks, constrained by tighter post-GFC lending restrictions, face challenges in addressing the $400 billion funding gap for small and medium-sized businesses, driving growth in private credit.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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With two supermarket CEO’s facing off against the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) in the battle for supermarket reputations, I wonder whether we will see vastly different behaviours from the new heads of Coles (ASX:COL) and Woolworths (ASX:WOW) than what we might typically have expected from their predecessors. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Economics.

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In my recent conversation with James Findlay on Statewide Drive, I discussed several key trends in the current economic landscape. Since June, major lenders and banks have only reported a modest increase in mortgage defaults and house repossessions, while vehicle defaults remain under 1 per cent. However, ASIC data shows that Australia is on track to record the highest number of business collapses in a decade, particularly in the building and food service industries, reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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Yesterday, I had the pleasure of participating in the InvestmentMarkets September webinar series to discuss the current economic backdrop and factors driving markets. I highlight two asset classes where I see significant opportunities for investors in the coming new year: innovative quality small companies and Australian private credit. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, On the Internet.

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Australia needs to urgently ditch the luxury car tax so that Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) aren’t the only cheap option. According to U.S. security experts, Chinese EVs are a danger to national security.

In a decisive move with significant implications for the United States (U.S.) automotive and technology sectors, the Biden Administration this week unveiled plans to prohibit the use of Chinese-developed software in internet-connected vehicles. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Technology & Telecommunications.

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According to several reports, China’s property price index is tumbling. China’s new home prices in 70 cities fell 5.3 per cent year-over-year in August 2024, accelerating from July’s 4.9 per cent drop. This marks the 14th consecutive month of decline and the sharpest since May 2015, despite Beijing’s efforts to stabilise the property market through lower mortgage rates and reduced homebuying costs. The downturn deepened across most major cities, with Beijing (-3.6 per cent vs -3.3 per cent in July), Guangzhou (-10.1 per cent vs -9.9 per cent), Shenzhen (-8.2 per cent vs -8.0 per cent), Tianjin (-1.4 per cent vs -1.2 per cent), and Chongqing (-5.4 per cent vs -4.9 per cent) all seeing further price contractions.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Property.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Aura Group, Video Insights.

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