In this week’s episode of Ausbiz, I share insights into Tesla’s (NASDAQ;TSLA) current challenges, noting the significant gap between vehicle production and sales despite expectations from innovations in AI and battery storage. This discrepancy raises questions about Tesla’s valuation and its similarities to traditional car manufacturers. I also discuss Tesla’s strategy to enhance software revenue and self-driving capabilities, questioning their effectiveness against the backdrop of sales challenges and global hesitancy towards autonomous vehicles. I also delve into the recent surge in cocoa prices due to supply disruptions and high demand around Easter, suggesting an investment strategy that leverages the post-Easter discounted chocolate eggs for potential profit by transforming them into more marketable chocolate products. Watch the full interview here: Ausbiz – Chocolate up, Tesla down 

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Back in October 2020, in the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic, in a blog titled “why cruise lines could be worth buying again,” we proffered an investment thesis that the sharp drops in the share prices of the major listed cruise line companies did not reflect the then fast-advancing technology that would facilitate a reopening of global activity even in the absence of a vaccine, and that pent-up demand (82 per cent of passengers are repeat cruisers) for travel would see a surge in cruising activity exceeding the expectations then implied in share prices.  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies.

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) last week, released the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February. The consumer price index is a measure of inflation published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The monthly CPI read came in at 3.4 per cent in the 12 months to February 2024. The rate has now remained unchanged for three consecutive months. When excluding the volatile items, which included fuel, fruit and vegetables, and holiday travel, the CPI level was 3.9 per cent. This is a downward revision from the 4.1 per cent reported in January.  Continue…

by Brett Craig Posted in Aura Group, Economics, Editor's Pick.

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In last week’s ABC Nightlife interview, I joined Philip Clark to discuss the current state of costs of retirement, the implications of rising interest rates, inflation and more. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Finance with Roger Montgomery

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Radio.

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In this week’s video insight, I explore the divided state of Australia’s property market, highlighted by the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) figures. With new home lending showing an unexpected decline, the market seems to be at a crossroads between tightening credit conditions and rising investor interest. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Property, Video Insights.

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In my recent interview with Ausbiz, I compared the prospects of Macquarie Technology (ASX:MAQ) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). I highlighted Macquarie Technology’s promising future in cloud computing and AI, predicting its share price could potentially rise. Conversely, I expressed skepticism about Tesla’s valuation, pointing out its overvaluation compared to traditional car manufacturers like Toyota (NYSE:TM), which I believe have more growth potential as they transition to electric vehicles. You can watch the full interview here: Ausbiz – Roger’s top megatrend compounding return stock Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in TV Appearances.

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Since May last year I have been advocating for investors to consider smaller companies, locally and globally.   

The initial arguments rested on Gavekal Research’s empirical evidence in the late 1970s which said innovative companies with pricing power (of which there is a surfeit among small caps) do well when disinflation (which we see today) meets with positive economic growth (which we also see today).  Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Small Caps.

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2023 saw the largest gap emerge between large-cap companies and small caps since the GFC. The question is, will this gap to close in 2024? 

We are optimistic about Australian small caps, anticipating a highly favourable environment and outperformance. That gap offers greater growth than large caps, at relatively more attractive valuations. Continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Small Caps, Video Insights.

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