Market commentary
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Mezzanine finance revealing another weak spot in the U.S. economy.
Roger Montgomery
November 21, 2023
After the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), U.S. regulators imposed stricter regulations on larger banks. Limiting their riskier lending for commercial real estate and development. Their more conservative lending practices meant property owners turned to smaller banks or sought second loans from non-bank lenders to bridge their financing gaps, often on top of existing bank mortgages. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Property.
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- POSTED IN Global markets, Market commentary, Property
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The RBA is in a bind along with mortgagees and renters
Roger Montgomery
November 20, 2023
Just 48 hours after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted rates for the 13th time by 25 basis points to 4.35 per cent, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said at a conference in Washington that “we are not confident” the Fed has tightened enough to bring inflation down to its 2 per cent goal. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – Data centers thrive in AI era
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2023
In this week’s interview on Ausbiz, I wanted to delve into the growing significance of data centers due to heightened AI demand and increased cloud expenditure, which is drawing striking parallels to the early days of smartphone adoption. This surge in AI integration amplifies the necessity for computational resources and data storage, consequently fuelling the demand for data centers and the increasing value of investing in them. Watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – Data centers thrive in AI era
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications, TV Appearances.
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Another pivot in the AI theme
Roger Montgomery
November 17, 2023
We have written previously that the boom in AI-theme-exposed stocks will have to be supported by monetisation in order to be sustained. There are plenty of consumer benefits from artificial intelligence (AI), and consumers will indeed be winners, but for companies to see a transformation in their revenues from AI, something more than just tacking AI-powered features onto their existing products will need to occur. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Technology & Telecommunications.
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What factors influence the future of oil?
Roger Montgomery
November 16, 2023
As world oil’s upstream and downstream industries stand at a crossroads, investors globally face the challenge of deciphering innumerable geopolitical and economic signals. These signals will also directly impact inflation rates with implications for central bank interest rate policy. For investors, the outlook for oil holds more than the usual amount of sway. From potential upheavals in the Middle East to colossal mergers in the U.S., here’s a shallow dive into the factors influencing the future of oil. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Energy / Resources, Global markets, Market commentary.
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Former NY Federal Reserve President Dudley offers insight on U.S. economic outlook
Roger Montgomery
November 15, 2023
At a recent investment conference here in Sydney, former Federal Reserve Bank of New York president, Chief Executive Officer (CEO), and now Bloomberg columnist William C. Dudley, provided a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in the U.S., highlighting several key points that shed light on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) perspective and future policy directions. Dudley’s analysis offers a crucial perspective for understanding the Fed’s current mindset and the potential trajectory of its future policies. All of which, of course, have consequences for investors’ portfolios. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary
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Rationalisation of the Australian commercial radio industry
David Buckland
November 14, 2023
In this week’s video insight, I delve into the events of mid-October, specifically focusing on the collaborative proposal by ARN Media and Anchorage Capital Partners for a non-binding, indicative acquisition of Southern Cross Media. The merger sparked concerns about market dominance, particularly in the commercial radio sector in metropolitan Australia, leading to scrutiny from the ACCC. Notably, over the weekend, Kerry Stokes’ Seven West Media strategically acquired a 20 per cent stake in ARN Media, raising questions about his broader interests across Australia. The developments add layers of intrigue to the future of Australia’s commercial radio sector, making it a captivating subject to observe. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Media Companies, Video Insights.
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MEDIA
Ausbiz – The market’s ‘weighty’ overreaction…
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2023
In last week’s Ausbiz interview, I explored investor sentiment surrounding the latest GLP-1 medications, specifically on Ozempic and its implications for companies like CSL (ASX: CSL) and ResMed (ASX: RMD). While the drop in CSL’s share value suggests market concerns about competing Ozempic-style drugs, I argue that these anxieties may be unfounded. My perspective rests on the belief that such medications might not be as transformative in addressing the weight of the U.S. population as investors might anticipate and the affordability surrounding it. Watch the full interview here. Ausbiz – The market’s ‘weighty’ overreaction… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, TV Appearances.
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- POSTED IN Companies, Market commentary, TV Appearances
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Would you like some sugar with your mortgage?
Roger Montgomery
November 13, 2023
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) latest rate rise has serious consequences for consumers and investors. There can be no argument that the RBA’s battle against inflation dominates investment commentary. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Global markets, Market commentary
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Australia leads the world in the annual pace of disposable income decline
Roger Montgomery
November 10, 2023
In its fight against persistent inflation, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has just introduced its 13th rate hike in this cycle at the same the financial strain on Australian households intensifies. According to a disturbing report published in The Australian Financial Review (AFR) this week, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has discovered Australia leads the world in the annual pace of disposable income declines globally. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.
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- POSTED IN Economics, Market commentary
