Market commentary
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No Dividends for You!
Roger Montgomery
September 13, 2016
Just when you thought it was safe to ignore market volatility, sit back and milk those regular bank dividends, comes a timely warning from my friend and AFR Contributing Editor, Chris Joye. Whether you agree or disagree doesn’t matter. But woe to you, bank shareholders, who don’t understand what his musings mean for your belief in the enduring power of Aussie bank shares to sustain your retirement income and lifestyle. His latest missive sounds like a wake-up call to catatonic bank dividend collectors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Market Correction? What to do next.
Roger Montgomery
September 12, 2016
We all know that major corrections in the stock market occur more frequently than academic models suggest and more frequently than we would like. The question of course is not ‘if’ the market will correct but ‘when’? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The rise of the minor parties is a signal that everything has changed
David Buckland
September 8, 2016
Australia in the 1950s was cricket in the backyard under the hills hoist, and those political parties other than the ALP and the Coalition received 5 per cent of the national vote. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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What to make of reporting season
Stuart Jackson
September 7, 2016
As detailed in one of our blogs in late July, the confession season had been relatively sparse this year. This set the market up for greater levels of earnings surprise than in previous years, and this is exactly what the reporting season delivered. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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What happens when a population declines?
David Buckland
September 6, 2016
The world’s population is at an all-time record high of around 7.4 billion, and the United Nations estimates it will be over 11 billion in the year 2100. But populations aren’t growing everywhere. Detroit’s population is down 65% since peaking in 1950. And Japan’s is expected to drop 33% by 2060. The declines pose a new set of challenges for these communities. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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Don’t ask the barber if you need a haircut
Roger Montgomery
September 5, 2016
Some analysts say you shouldn’t ask your broker whether or not to buy stocks, as they have a conflict of interest – they will always tell you to buy. So, who should you ask? Perhaps J. Kyle Bass, the man who profited handsomely from predicting the subprime mortgage meltdown. Bass is convinced China will need to devalue the renminbi, which would be bad for equities. We think it may pay to read what he says. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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The Alpha Fund One Month In
Tim Kelley
September 2, 2016
The new Montgomery Alpha Fund has just completed its first month of live trading, returning a pleasing 3.24 per cent for August after all fees. Given our target for the Fund is to return 6-8 per cent above the cash rate annually, this is well ahead of what we might consider “normal”. There are a couple of observations around risk and return worth making here. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Market commentary.
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It’s time to stop running with the herd
Roger Montgomery
August 24, 2016
With low interest rates prompting so many investors to stampede into high dividend-paying stocks, it appears we are re-living the exuberance of the dotcom era. But ultra-low rates aren’t normal, and as rational investors we need to avoid the pitfalls of herd mentality. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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How good a guide is guidance?
Roger Montgomery
August 22, 2016
How often have we read or heard that a listed company has missed guidance? Ahead of the upcoming 2016 reporting season, I have been thinking about whether guidance is helpful or not and have been encouraged by recent developments. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Switzer TV
Roger Montgomery
August 19, 2016
In this interview with Peter Switzer, Roger Montgomery joins Switzer TV to discuss the current reporting season and expectations for this year. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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