Market commentary
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Debt levels are indeed hurting
Andreas Lundberg
October 17, 2018
Data that forms an investment thesis is not always presented in the most coherent and easy to digest manner. It is indeed often the case that once data has been distilled into a form that is easy to draw conclusions from, it is often too late to act on as the trend has already become obvious. It is therefore often even more interesting to look at more circumstantial data that can give an early indication of the future direction of the more substantiated data. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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What is “Cash” and Why it Matters – Narrow Road Capital
Roger Montgomery
October 2, 2018
With punitive rates, and even negative in some jurisdictions, cash has become a liability for many in recent years. But cash is actually most valuable when nobody else has any and given our belief that the value of cash is increasing, Jonathan Rochford from Narrow Road Capital provides a note that is incredibly timely. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Howard Marks takes the market’s Temperature
Roger Montgomery
September 27, 2018
Legendary Value investor, Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital has just released his latest memo to investors overnight. His observation that “overly generous capital markets ultimately lead to unwise financing, and thus to danger for participants” is worth noting with respect to Australia’s recent property boom… continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Why consumer-oriented stocks could soon struggle
Andreas Lundberg
September 17, 2018
While the Federal government continues to crow about the strength of the Australian economy, a worrying trend is occurring that is getting less attention: Australian households are saving less. Sooner or later, this trend will reverse. And when it does, consumer-oriented businesses will feel the heat. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Consumer discretionary, Market commentary.
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Three sectors that could struggle in the year ahead
Roger Montgomery
September 7, 2018
Reporting season has produced some terrific results, with the combined earnings per share of companies reporting rising by almost 9 per cent. But a note of caution: it’s also highlighted that the road ahead could get bumpy for three key sectors of the economy. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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If you are going to forecast, forecast often
Roger Montgomery
August 30, 2018
My very good friend Graham Hand at Cuffelinks recently published a chart by Jon Boorman from Broadsword Capital (a US-based hedge fund) who “has been tracking the comments made by famous bears…” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Australia leads the way on household debt
Andreas Lundberg
August 22, 2018
Australian households are far and away the most indebted among English-speaking nations. To my mind, it means the next interest rate move by the Reserve Bank will be down. If I’m right, then it may be time for investors to think about increasing their exposure to businesses that benefit from a weaker Aussie dollar. continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Eastern Australia’s drought is bad news for agribusinesses
Stuart Jackson
July 30, 2018
The worsening drought in Eastern Australia is resulting in increasingly difficult conditions for businesses right across the agriculture sector. And if official weather forecasts hold firm, it looks like things will be tough for some time to come. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Market commentary.
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Stock Bubble? Lessons from Dalio, Buffett and History
Roger Montgomery
July 3, 2018
As we are all well aware, central banks have been, through quantitative easing, suppressing interest rates since the GFC. Consequently, monetary policy has fueled unprecedented flows of institutional and private capital into real estate, private equity and stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Farewell Fiscal 2018, Hello Fiscal 2019
David Buckland
July 3, 2018
As Fiscal 2018 has drawn to a close, let’s take a closer look at the financial year that was. Excluding dividends, the Australian All Ordinaries Index was up 9.1 per cent to 6,290, and much of this gain took place in the December 2017 half-year. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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