Market commentary
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 3 NSW data update
Gary Rollo
March 25, 2020
In our third update tracking COVID-19 testing data, NSW Health started reporting data on 25 January. The data released regularly reported case epidemiology, with a high trace rate, as well as good data on disease incidence by age cohort. NSW Health also appeared to have started early with a testing plan, and we note that when that testing regime scored a hit, testing volumes jumped, and kept ramping. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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Rain Man and the Australian All Ordinaries Index (Part 2)
David Buckland
March 24, 2020
There have been seven bear markets since the early 1970s. That’s an average of one every seven years. Five of the bear markets, being 1974-75, the early 1980s, the early 1990s, the early 2000s, and the GFC from late 2007 until early 2009, all took approximately eighteen months to play out and all lost approximately 50 per cent from peak to trough. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing data – Part 2 The story for Italy, the UK and US
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
We have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone and understanding how testing might give us some early insight on the preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. Governments, if prepared, would want to utilise the ability to test as an early warning system first. We looked for consistent testing data and can update you on in Italy (IT), UK, and the US. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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COVID-19 Testing Data – A Montgomery analysis
Gary Rollo
March 24, 2020
Here at Montgomery we have been tracking COVID-19 testing data, rather than just cases alone. Our logic is that testing drives cases, and that case growth would drive markets. So understanding testing might give us some early insight as to the likely preparedness of governments, and also to the dynamism of their response upon realising that a COVID-19 problem exists. continue…
by Gary Rollo Posted in Market commentary.
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How should you think about cash?
Tim Kelley
March 23, 2020
One of the biggest questions facing equity investors today is when and how to deploy surplus cash that they may have available. This is a question we have studied extensively in recent weeks, and while we can offer no definitive answers, some tentative conclusions may help to inform this decision. With that in mind, we set out here a summary of key points coming out of our analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic to date, and some thoughts on what might lie ahead. continue…
by Tim Kelley Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Four criteria we are considering before buying shares in this market
Joseph Kim
March 18, 2020
With the Australian market in freefall, readers and clients alike have asked us where we are looking to invest. While we continue to monitor the fluid situation closely, we have established some key criteria that we would look to satisfy in anticipation of a potential recovery. continue…
by Joseph Kim Posted in Market commentary.
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Rain Man and the Australian All Ordinaries Index
David Buckland
March 17, 2020
On the night of the 19 October 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 22.6 per cent from 2,246.7 to 1,738.4 points. During the ’87 Crash, the Australian All Ordinaries Index fell from 2,312 points to 1,149 points, a decline from peak to trough of 50 per cent. In hindsight, it was a great buying opportunity. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.
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How value investors could benefit from this market correction
Roger Montgomery
March 12, 2020
It’s been a tough few years for value investors, with value stocks now trading at the largest discount to growth stocks since the 1999 tech bubble. But I think the discount will close as the market correction separates quality businesses from expensive, high beta, high hope stocks. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Investing Education, Market commentary.
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Is the US about to experience a nasty spike in coronavirus cases?
Roger Montgomery
March 11, 2020
With markets bouncing it is worth making a couple of observations. Firstly, there were periods during the Global Financial Crisis when the market rallied as much as 10 per cent. Secondly, there is a solid relationship between really ugly COVID-19 case spikes and inadequate early testing. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.
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Australia’s worst equity performance day since the GFC – some observations
Scott Phillips
March 10, 2020
Yesterday saw the ASX 200 Index sell off a whopping 7.3 per cent in what was the most brutal fall in our Australian equity market since 10 October, 2008, which was in the height of the GFC. continue…
by Scott Phillips Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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