Market commentary
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What next for our slow-moving economic train wreck?
Roger Montgomery
July 20, 2020
Government support programs have helped to soften – and postpone – the financial blows from the disruptions caused by COVID-19. In so doing, they’ve also bolstered share markets. But, I doubt this can go on forever; looking ahead, we could experience an extended period of lower equity market returns. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Has the market run too hard?
Roger Montgomery
July 16, 2020
Who would have thought that, just four months after the market’s March nadir, many stocks would not only have recovered but be at new all-time highs? Or that businesses like Afterpay, which has still to turn a profit, would be trading at such lofty prices? The big question is: how long can this unbridled enthusiasm continue? continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.
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Will today’s roosters be tomorrow’s feather dusters?
Roger Montgomery
July 6, 2020
I’m astounded by the stories of immediate success I’ve been hearing from those who have rarely, if ever, directly invested in the stock market. This success is often the result of mindless speculation in businesses whose share prices are out of step with future cash flows – and brings to mind Warren Buffet’s quip that “a pin lies in wait for every bubble.” continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Farewell fiscal 2020, hello fiscal 2021
David Buckland
July 1, 2020
Twelve months back, who could have predicted the world would be in the state it’s currently in? And yet, despite the pandemic-induced turmoil, some world markets are not that far from where they were a year ago. Here’s a quick look at the year that was. continue…
by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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How to minimise risk during recessions and economic crises
Roger Montgomery
June 30, 2020
What’s the best way to minimise risk when investing during a recession or economic crisis? Research by NYU’s Stern School of Business shows that one method could be to allocate funds according to where the company sits in its business lifecycle – which is the approach taken by the Montgomery Small Companies Fund. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.
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WHITEPAPER
INTEREST RATES, THE BEST IT GETS. IT’S TIME TO DEPLOY CASH
Curious about the investment landscape in 2024? It appears that the current market offers a plethora of enticing opportunities for investors, a rarity not experienced since pre-pandemic times. This unique scenario stems from a confluence of factors, including elevated yields and comparatively rational equity valuations.
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Could US lockdowns slam the breaks on this market rally?
Stuart Jackson
June 29, 2020
The COVID-19 data coming out of the US is grim and getting grimmer. My concern is that many investors have been pricing in an increasingly positive economic recovery, which may not eventuate if governments in the US need to re-introduce lockdowns. And that spells danger for share prices in the US – and other markets as well. continue…
by Stuart Jackson Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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New investors take note: it may be time to take your profits
Roger Montgomery
June 29, 2020
One of the rather surprising trends since the COVID-19 lockdown has been the new wave of first-time share market investors. Many have enjoyed huge gains since the March market rout – often by speculating on highly risky businesses. But the ensuing dislocation between share prices and economic reality tells me that some could get their fingers badly burnt. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Why I’m not a fan of the Fed buying corporate bonds
Roger Montgomery
June 23, 2020
In March, the U.S. Federal Reserve moved to prevent a coronavirus-induced downturn by promising to set up an entity to buy corporate bonds and ETFs, including junk bonds and junk bond ETFs. My concern is that the Fed has simply created another time bomb that future generations will have to defuse. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.
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Why it’s so hard to pick the market direction right now
Roger Montgomery
June 22, 2020
In a recent interview, Peter Switzer asked me if I was a bull or a bear. It’s a simple question, but one that requires a nuanced response. Because these are complex and unprecedented times for investors. continue…
by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.
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Are debt deferrals a ticking time bomb for the economy?
Andreas Lundberg
June 16, 2020
Last week, the Australian Banking Association (ABA) updated the market on the number of mortgages and business loans deferred due to impacts from the COVID-19 crisis. In all, loans totalling $234 billion are not being repaid. The question is: what proportion of these borrowers will be able to resume repaying the banks once the other COVID-19 stimulus measures end? continue…
by Andreas Lundberg Posted in Market commentary.
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