Market commentary

In 2025, the U.S. enacted the most significant trade policy shift in decades, with average tariffs rising from roughly 2.4 per cent in January to approximately 18–20 per cent by August, levels not seen since the 1930s.

In some cases, duties on Chinese imports have exceeded 50 per cent, marking a sharp departure from the stable global trade arrangements of recent decades. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Financial markets are riding a wave of bullish enthusiasm, with stocks, cryptocurrencies, and other speculative assets soaring to new heights. Fueled by optimism around cooling inflation, robust corporate earnings, and the transformative potential of artificial intelligence (AI), the rally has pushed valuations to levels some are saying is reminiscent of the 1999/2000 dot-com era. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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There’s a lot going on in cryptocurrency markets and while many still dismiss them as a fad, recent announcements and enacted legislation in the U.S., demands investors begin to pay attention to the emerging asset class, if they haven’t already. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Last week, I attended an Australian housing market update from Eliza Owen, Head of Research at Cotality (formerly Core Logic). Below are some key insights that I thought were worth highlighting. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary, Property.

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With apologies to William Shakespeare, signs of a bit of froth and frenzy have begun to be acknowledged in markets this last week. As we have previously noted, liquidity is the fuel for such episodes, and as long as liquidity remains abundant, we should expect more, rather than less, evidence of irrationality. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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The Whyalla Steelworks was established in 1941 and employs 1,100 people. The Mount Isa copper smelter was established in 1953 and employs 550 people, and the Townsville refinery was established in 1959 and employs 500 people. Without enormous government subsidisation, all three businesses look like they will follow the Exxon Mobile refinery, Oceana Glass and plastics makers, Qenos and Trident, into oblivion. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary, Property.

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Financial markets are acting like a friend who says one thing but does another. Investors are sending conflicting messages about the economy, interest rates, and what’s coming next.

The mixed signals

Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by up to two per cent over this easing cycle. Trump of course, always the glutton, wants even more. That’s a big deal – rate cuts of this size usually happen when the economy is in trouble or heading into a recession. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment to boost a slowing economy. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Metallurgical or coking coal, a major input in steelmaking, has seen its price decline from US$670/tonne to the current US$183/tonne over the past three years. A global oversupply of steel, low steel prices and uncertainty regarding global trade has led to muted demand. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Energy / Resources, Manufacturing, Market commentary.

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The title of this blog post was going to be ‘How to mismanage an economy’. I decided against it because the cynical answer could seriously abbreviate the blog post to just, Give it to Victoria’s Labor government.

In Victoria, State Member for Warrandyte, Nicole Werner, recently outlined and commented on the state government’s imposition of yet another new tax. A new land tax on those running any business activities from their homes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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When Warren Buffett was asked to distil the essence of investing success, he offered the following:

“Your goal as an investor should simply be to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily-understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher five, 10 and 20 years from now. Over time, you will find only a few companies that meet these standards – so when you see one that qualifies, you should buy a meaningful amount of stock. You must also resist the temptation to stray from your guidelines: If you aren’t willing to own a stock for ten years, don’t even think about owning it for ten minutes. Put together a portfolio of companies whose aggregate earnings march upward over the years, and so also will the portfolio’s market value.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Investing Education, Market commentary.

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