Market commentary

I joined Sean Aylmer on Fear + Greed yesterday to discuss Myer’s disappointing announcement of a 30 per cent decline in profit, which was followed by a 25 per cent drop in its share price.

So, what went wrong?

As a traditional bricks-and-mortar department store, Myer has been grappling with significant challenges. Its move into the highly competitive online retail space has brought debt and complex integration issues, while also placing it in direct competition with pure-play online retailers. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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A falling U.S. dollar, China and Russia stacking gold and angling to take Taiwan, surging U.S. debt and a President dismantling the independence of America’s central bank. It’s no wonder bond yields are high.

Fiscal recklessness is stirring in the bond markets, and long-dated government debt appears to be under siege once again. Yields on 30-year U.S. Treasuries were at 4.97 per cent at the start of September – now at 4.66 per cent – and near their highest level since 2007, Britain’s 30-year gilts spiked to a 27-year high of 5.75 per cent at the start of September, while Japan’s 20-year notes flirted with levels unseen since 1999. French and Australian sovereign bonds yields are soaring too. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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If you’re tracking equities, it’s vital to keep an eye on the bond markets, as they’re signalling genuine unease. That nervousness is now rippling through global economies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Global markets, Market commentary.

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With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Investors are debating a number of scenarios. One is that Trump will install enough cronies on the board of the U.S. Federal Reserve that rates will be cut as many as five times in the next year. Supporters believe this could be incredibly bullish for markets, especially equities. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I recently penned a blog post in which I highlighted the market-related concerns of American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, Kenneth Rogoff. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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There is considerable academic and market commentary showing that equity markets often take time – sometimes weeks or months – to digest new information fully.

While Eugene Fama’s efficient market hypothesis posits that prices reflect available information almost instantly, we know that information is not evenly distributed. For example, studies on “post-earnings announcement drift” demonstrate that after companies release quarterly results, share prices tend to drift in the direction of the earnings surprise for an extended period. This implies investors initially underreact. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As August 2025 has now wrapped up, Australia’s reporting season has again delivered a snapshot of the economy’s trajectory. For years, we’ve heard the refrain of a “resilient” domestic market weathering global headwinds, interest rate hikes, and inflationary pressures. But this time around, the narrative has evolved. Companies across the ASX are signalling that resilience is giving way to tentative recovery, particularly in consumer spending and the housing sectors. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Over the weekend, many Australians took to the streets to raise awareness about the adverse consequences and costs of Australia’s current migration policy. Those marches were peaceful, except, of course, in Victoria (where the government has legislated, or seeks to legislate, working from home and stealing from Woolworths, Bunnings, and Coles). Unfortunately, a radical element has grabbed the headlines, but setting those headlines aside, it is worth noting that the current architects of Australia’s migration policy have MPs who agree the system is broken and failing to deliver for Australia. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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You might not like the man or his personality, but I wonder whether a new brand of capitalism and a new brand of government are emerging that prioritise the greater good. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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