Market commentary

Generally speaking, and while it is early days, this earnings season has been a good one both broadly and for the Montgomery Small Companies Fund, overseen by portfolio managers, Gary Rollo and Dominic Rose. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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I recently wrote about my two big forecasts for 2024. One was that private credit would gain traction as an important asset class and would also feature more prominently in advised portfolios, especially for those seeking uncorrelated returns, lower volatility, and regular attractive income. I also stuck my neck on the block and suggested that if disinflation and positive economic growth dominate the economic backdrop, investors will adopt more risk and buy select small-cap stocks, closing the gap that emerged in 2023 between them and the mega-cap technology companies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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As we kick off another year of investing, I thought I would offer a couple of predictions. They come thick and fast at this time of year, so rely on them as you might dental floss for security when rock climbing.

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by Roger Montgomery Posted in Editor's Pick, Market commentary.

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Despite wars in Ukraine and the Gaza Strip, and the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank in March 2023, the Magnificent Seven (Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla) rose by an average 111 per cent over calendar 2023. This greatly assisted the performance of the US-based Nasdaq, up 43.4 per cent for the year. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Market commentary.

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In January this year, a veritable conga-line of economists and strategists were publishing their forecasts for the year ahead, as they do every year. Now, safely at the other end of the 2023 calendar, we have the luxury of testing the prescience of these clairvoyants. Here at Montgomery, we play the ball rather than play the man, so we won’t be naming any of the forecasters, but rest assured, these are all prognostications that were published and distributed in January this year. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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In this week’s ABC Nightlife interview, my last for 2023, Philip Clark and I delved into the challenges facing the Australian retail sector. I highlighted the potential difficulties anticipated for retailers in early 2024, post-Christmas, with the contributors being a significant decline in consumer spending and savings. I also discussed the evolution of private credit since the GFC, with the lending gap between banks and the SME sector, along with the advantages it presents for investors. You can listen to the full interview here: ABC Nightlife – Retails challenges and the future of private credit

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Radio.

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In my final video insight for the year, I wanted to share some potentially exciting news for all you small cap stock enthusiasts out there. I delve into the recent developments at the U.S. Federal Reserve and what they mean for small cap stocks. Will 2024 be the year for small caps? continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Video Insights.

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If you aren’t already aware I am optimistic about the prospect for small caps in 2024. Provided we have a combination of positive economic growth (even a short technical recession won’t upset my thesis) and a continuation of the disinflation that has informed the path of consumer prices over the last year, innovative small cap growth companies have the opportunity to catch up to mega-caps that dominated the investment landscape in 2023. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Here’s a bit of a depressing picture for the retail sector for the September 2023 quarter. New data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) paints a bleak outlook for retailers this Christmas and into early 2024. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In this week’s video insight, I delve into the discussions surrounding the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s proactive approach to inflation, the nuanced shifts in major economies, and the potential impacts of tightening monetary policies. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Global markets, Market commentary, Video Insights.

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