Insightful Insights

There are all sorts of coincidences that can be mistaken for signs that a crash is imminent. We don’t put much store in those, however it is never uninteresting reading about them. One that is gaining a little traction is something known as the Edifice Complex.

In conventional terms, the Edifice Complex is the desire to build lasting edifices or buildings as a legacy to one’s greatness. In today’s context, the Edifice Complex represents the historically coincident construction/completion of these buildings with stock market crashes. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights, Property, Value.able.

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Sadly, we live in a country where the overwhelming belief is that people are almost always better off with lower prices. It’s short-term ideology that fails to recognise the long-term damage suffered by Australian businesses when they simply cannot match the prices offered by better-resourced and more competitive foreign businesses. And it’s ideology again that suggests these businesses should be left to fail.

The result of course is that local businesses do go broke or are bought out by foreign businesses. And as we have seen with Ford and Holden, selling out to foreign enterprises does not secure jobs nor does it guarantee ongoing ‘investment’. We should think of this is we sell off our land, our farms and our infrastructure. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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Following on from our recent blog post here and our Head of Research, Tim Kelley’s video blog – on the changing supermarket industry landscape – we are naturally watching the developments in the sector closely (from the sidelines), taking a keen interest in the half year result reported this week by Metcash Limited (ASX:MTS).

To quickly summarise: their half year results showed continued deterioration to which the market has reacted accordingly, with their share price down circa 27 per cent since. continue…

by Russell Muldoon Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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There’s not much point in being a successful value investor, if you aren’t seeking value in other aspects of your financial life. With your savings and personal wealth in mind, we think you should know the ACCC has relaunced its petrol price cycle page on its website.

The site will provide information on petrol price cycles in the five largest cities. Price cycles do not occur in Canberra, Hobart, Darwin, or in most regional locations across Australia. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Insightful Insights.

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DEC 3, 2014: According to Finsia  “competition from new technology and growing customer demands have seen 12 financial services organisations team up to back a world-leading, real-time payments solution for Australia.

The New Payments Platform (NPP) marked a milestone on December 2, 2014 when the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) was unveiled as NPP Australia’s chosen platform builder and operator. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Financial Services, Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.

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The ASX has gone nowhere this year. After strong performances in 2012 and 2013, 2014 is looking decidedly lacklustre going into the home straight.

One of the features of the year to date has been the very poor showing by resources companies. The Australian equity market has a heavy weighting to resources, and when commodity prices decline, the Australian equity market can lag those of other nations. Clearly this can be a positive as well – in boom times a strong resources market will drive the ASX higher. continue…

by Tim Kelley Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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After a meteoric rise, it’s prudent to question whether there is value left in a share price, and it’s a question we have been pondering on TPG Telecom Limited (ASX: TPM) for quite some time. There is plenty of media on the consumer side of the business, particularly with regard to its positioning against the NBN, but in this post I’ll be discussing the corporate side, which is also deserving of attention. continue…

by Scott Shuttleworth Posted in Insightful Insights, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Russell and I attended the Vocus Communications Limited (ASX: VOC) Annual General Meeting last week. While the company could not give anything away on their proposed merger with Amcom Telecommunications Limited (ASX: AMM), we continue to be incredibly impressed with the calibre of the Vocus Board of Directors, especially in the context of its $600m market capitalisation.

In the four years to June 2014, the company’s revenue line has increased from $31m to $92m, while its EBITDA has climbed from $10m to $33m. And in the four years to November 2014, the Vocus Communications’ share price has responded in kind by quadrupling from $1.50 to the current $6.00. continue…

by David Buckland Posted in Companies, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Technology & Telecommunications.

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Be sure to watch this video from March 2013 (almost two years ago) and then read on…

It only takes three or four minutes to learn about the forces of supply and demand and their effect on prices.  It usually takes an entire semester to explain the forces of supply and demand to a first year university student so consider the few minutes you spend here a value-investing opportunity.

This week our friends at the ABC reported a painful situation in one of Australia’s important industries: “Activity in the resources sector continues to tumble, with a new government report showing investment commitments to major projects are now at the lowest level in more than a decade.” continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Energy / Resources, Insightful Insights, Investing Education, Value.able.

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The Reject Shop (ASX: TRS) has previously presented as a compelling investment opportunity but the company has not been a holding of The Montgomery Fund for quite some time.

With the shares down nearly 60 per cent this financial year – an experience we are fortunate to have missed – some investors are asking whether it’s time to wade back in? It is important to keep in mind that a company’s shares are not cheap because the price has merely fallen. If the price falls but the intrinsic value falls even further, there may be no value to be found. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Consumer discretionary, Insightful Insights, Investing Education.

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